The brutal war between Russia and Ukraine continues. February marked the fourth anniversary of Russia’s 2022 invasion.
Now, however, there is a notable new development — Ukraine is regaining ground.
Kyiv is also expanding its air war, including massive drone attacks on Moscow.
The conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States overshadows these consequential developments.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also survived very public criticism by President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance during a combative White House meeting early last year.
This signaled a shift from support levels provided by the Biden administration. Near the end of 2022, during the first year of war, Zelensky addressed both houses of the U.S. Congress and received multiple standing ovations. TIME magazine named him “Person of the Year.”
Nonetheless, drama aside, U.S. aid continues, though now delivered significantly through sales to other European nations. NATO nations are also increasing their support.
The war is devastating the influence and image of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Russia’s military is suffering. During the Cold War, the Soviet Red Army, with some regularity, suppressed popular revolts in occupied nations with relative ease. Incidents included East Germany in 1953, Hungary and Poland in 1956, and Czechoslovakia in 1968. Yugoslavia successfully broke away in 1948.
Undeniably, Putin and associates miscalculated how easily Russia’s military would be able to occupy and take control of Ukraine, repeating Cold War successes. However, as throughout history, the determination, resourcefulness, and sheer courage of the people of Ukraine have been important.
But Russian forces have also proven extraordinarily deficient. Mechanized weapons and equipment have broken down to a striking degree; military units have proven demonstrably poorly disciplined and ineffective. Clear by now is that the end of the Soviet Union also opened the door to corruption and disorganization, undeniable and extraordinarily widespread.
The recent Ukraine gains reflect this.
In a particularly shocking development, dead Russian soldiers have simply been left where they lie on the battlefield by retreating comrades. Not abandoning comrades, alive or dead, is a traditional tenet of successful military culture.
One important factor rarely mentioned is Putin’s own lack of military experience, including combat, in contrast to the leaders of the Soviet Union. He was in the KGB, technically a military organization, but in reality, an intelligence arm of the Soviet Communist Party.
The Biden administration’s decision to provide the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine is important. The Patriot is part of a great revolution in military technologies over the 19th and 20th centuries.
During the second half of the 20th century, enormous technological advances took place. Precision-Guided Munitions (PGMs) proved important during the Vietnam War and later were crucial in defeating the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
From 1973, the Pentagon began to develop a satellite network for use in Earth navigation. The resulting Global Positioning System (GPS) alleviated the challenge, as old as warfare, of determining the location of forces accurately.
Ukraine is using these and related technologies for communication, positioning, targeting, tracking and various other tasks.
Currently, both sides are escalating air attacks. Ukraine is striking aggressively, and Russia is using nuclear-capable missiles. These and other developments underscore that escalation by both sides may get out of control. World War I began in the Balkans, and World War II in Europe began in Poland. Contemporary technologies facilitate rapid, unpredictable escalation.
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Effective diplomatic leadership is essential, from European nations if not the U.S.
Arthur I. Cyr is the author of “After the Cold War – American Foreign Policy, Europe and Asia” (NYU and Palgrave/Macmillan). Contact [email protected]