Whatever you think of Tony Stewart, you might want to wish him luck for the next 10 weeks. He, and NASCAR, will need it.
Stewart may be the last man standing against the collapse of the notion of competition in the Chase for the Nextel Cup, which begins Sunday.
In the 10-driver playoff field that was set here Saturday night in the final race of regular season, you can have all the sentimental favorites you want. But the reality is this: Stewart vs. all five drivers of Roush Racing.
Once every decade or two, somewhere in the world, a team gathers such strength and momentum as to not just outrun but overrun its entire form of motor racing.
In NASCAR, Petty Enterprises of the 1960s comes to mind. Then there were the factory Porsche prototypes in the old World Sports Car Championship of the ’80s. Ferrari decimated global interest in Formula One with its domination at the dawn of this millennium, though it finally was halted this season.
Now half the Chase field is made up of the five Roush drivers: Greg Biffle, Kurt Busch, Mark Martin, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth.
The Roush Fords–no other Fords are remotely in their class–of Busch, Kenseth and Biffle finished 1-2-3 in the Chevy Rock and Roll 400 here to “put an exclamation point” on the end of the regular season, Busch said.
How powerful does a team have to be to finish 1-2-3 in a major race?
Although Andretti Green Racing performed the feat in the Honda Grand Prix of St. Petersburg in April, the last time it happened in NASCAR was the 1997 Daytona 500, swept by Jeff Gordon, Terry Labonte and Ricky Craven for Hendrick Motorsports.
Before that, you have to go back to 1982, when Porsche 956s finished 1-2-3 in the 24 Hours of Le Mans.
If not for Stewart’s five wins and leadership in the points race, gained in a midsummer hot streak, the Roush steamroller already would have overwhelmed NASCAR.
All five drivers have won in some form this year. Four have won points races–Biffle five, Busch three, Edwards two and Kenseth one–and Martin won the all-star race in May.
Stewart is vulnerable to be stampeded for the championship, what with the reshuffling of points that creates only a 45-point spread among the top 10 going into next week’s opening playoff race at Loudon, N.H.
Tenth-place Ryan Newman and third-place Rusty Wallace make Penske South the only other team with multiple entries in the Chase. But Newman and Wallace don’t get along very well and are unlikely to cooperate on the track.
On the other hand, Newman has noticed considerable cooperation among the Roush drivers already.
“They’ll have an obvious advantage,” Newman said. “The way they were swapping the lead out for bonus points at California [Sept. 3] makes you wonder if they’ve got that planned for the last 10 races.”
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Rarely has a team been able to manipulate race outcomes week to week in NASCAR, but Roush is at the threshold.
Busch would speak only vaguely about the advantages, citing “giving one another room” on the track and “the extra testing” in which five cooperating branches of the team can create a database that could overwhelm the other Chase entries.
Team owner Jack Roush, the 63-year-old engineer/entrepreneur nicknamed “Cactus Jack” by the late Dale Earnhardt “because he’s prickly,” knows he isn’t the most popular man in NASCAR.
Roush has been a burr under many saddles since he arrived from sports car racing 18 years ago to apply a new kind of science, politics, funding and constant technological lobbying to stock car racing.
NASCAR has always been uneasy with Roush’s gathering might over the years. When the Chase was conceived, “I told them, `You guys are concerned about the fact that my program is getting stronger and stronger,'” Roush said Sunday.
“I predicted, `If I put five in … the Chase, you guys are going to say I’m predatory.’ They said, `No.'”
NASCAR Chairman Brian France denied Saturday that Roush’s overwhelming position is a serious concern.
“It isn’t in the short run, because people follow drivers, not team owners,” he said. “[But] it used to be that the super teams had three or four cars, but [at Hendrick, for example] Terry Labonte might be having an off year, while Jeff Gordon was having a good year.
“This is a year when we’ve seen one team have enormous success. And that does contribute to a possible new team owner saying, `Geez, do I have to have three or four cars in order to win?’
“And that has us examining [the multicar team situation] as closely as we can. But we’ve been looking at that for a year or two, or longer.”
In that span, Roush has won back-to-back Cup championships, first with Kenseth, then with Busch. As for France’s “or longer,” that’s how long NASCAR has seen Roush’s juggernaut gathering steam. And now it’s here, full force.
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Sizing up the Nextel Cup contenders
Ed Hinton breaks down the Chase for the Nextel Cup, with drivers in order of point standings
DRIVER CAR THE BUZZ ODDS
1. Tony Stewart-a Chev. Has shown he can win at every type of track 3-1
2. Greg Biffle-b Ford Confident he’ll shine on intermediate tracks 5-1
3. Rusty Wallace-c Dodge Consistency could snatch title in swan-song year 10-1
4. Jimmie Johnson-d Chev. Consensus preseason favorite could still surge 8-1
5. Kurt Busch-b Ford Defending champ likely to lead Roush onslaught 3-1
6. Mark Martin-b Ford Sentimental favorite as best driver without title 10-1
7. Jeremy Mayfield-e Dodge Team not ready for serious charge at the title 15-1
8. Carl Edwards-b Ford Least experienced driver in the Roush armada 12-1
9. Matt Kenseth-b Ford Most resurgent of Roush drivers could rise to top 5-1
10. Ryan Newman-c Dodge Hasn’t shown consistency of his better years 12-1
Teams: a–Joe Gibbs; b–Roush; c–Penske South; d–Hendrick; e–Evernham
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