Super Bowl games are getting closer, but probably not this one. The New England Patriots are seven-point favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles, but that would be a closer game than either team has played this postseason.
Thanks to the Patriots’ Adam Vinatieri, field goals have decided two of the last three Super Bowls. This game is a matchup between the two best kickers in the league, Vinatieri and Philadelphia’s David Akers, so if it does go the wire, it’s in the hands of good feet.
Other signs say it won’t. The AFC won 44 of 64 games against the NFC this season. Philadelphia was by far the class of the NFC and still had only a 2-2 record against AFC teams. It turns out New England also was by far the class of the stronger AFC, stuffing the league’s highest-scoring offense (Colts) 20-3 and scoring 34 points plus a touchdown on an interception against the stingiest defense (Steelers).
It adds up to a convincing Patriots edge, say, 27-10. Turnovers could make the difference, and the Patriots have yet to make one in the postseason and were plus 9 in the regular season. Likewise, the Eagles have lost only one fumble in the playoffs and were plus 6.
The league likes to brag about its percentage of close games–45 percent decided by seven points or fewer this season. But in Super Bowls, the percentage of one-touchdown games plummets to 29 percent, only 11 of 38. Four of those 11 have come in the last seven games, so there is hope for advertisers who have paid $2.4 million for a 30-second spot.
Two-week wonders
Patriots coach Bill Belichick has a great reputation for befuddling teams when he has two weeks to mix his magic potions. But the Eagles’ Andy Reid has an even better record. Belichick is 6-2 with two weeks’ notice as New England’s coach; Reid is 9-0.
Since 1990, the five Super Bowls played one week after the conference championship games have been decided by 27, 3, 7, 17 and 1 point, an average of 11. That margin jumps to 16.3 points for the nine Super Bowls since 1990 with two weeks to practice. The last five with a two-week break: 3, 27, 15, 7 and 14. Of the games with a one-week break, 60 percent were decided by a touchdown or less, compared with only 22 percent with two weeks in between.
Time out on T.O.
Terrell Owens is made for the Super Bowl. He was obtained to get the Eagles into the Super Bowl. After helping them gain home-field advantage in the NFC, he was only a cheerleader in the playoffs.
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Now, there has been more hype surrounding a player who might play in the Super Bowl than all those who will. And even if he does suit up, the chance of him making any difference is remote.
Lombardi record
Green Bay’s Vince Lombardi was 9-1 in playoffs, same as Belichick. But if the Packers had played a series of playoff games each year based on today’s system, Lombardi would be 13-3.
In 1960, he lost to Philadelphia in the NFL title game, played between winners of the Eastern and Western Conferences. There were no preliminary playoffs. Now, he would have had to win one game (against Western Conference runner-up Detroit) to get to the title game.
In 1961, he also would have had to get past runner-up Detroit before meeting the Eastern Conference champion New York Giants (assuming the 10-3-1 Giants could have beaten the 10-4 Eagles in a playoff).
In 1962 (the Packers’ best team), he also would have played runner-up Detroit before meeting the Giants. (See, the Lions were pretty good once upon a time).
In 1963, assume the Western Conference runner-up Packers would have lost to the Bears in the playoff.
Likewise, in 1964 the runner-up Packers would have lost to the Baltimore Colts.
In 1965, the Packers did have to beat the Colts in a Western Conference playoff after both finished 10-3-1. That was the overtime game that was tied on a Don Chandler kick the Colts still claim was no good. The Packers then beat the Cleveland Browns for the NFL title.
In 1966, the year of the first Super Bowl, the Packers would have had to beat Baltimore before beating Dallas for the NFL title and then the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl I.
In 1967, the Packers did have to win three games as the conferences were split into divisions and the Packers beat the Los Angeles Rams in the first regularly scheduled conference playoff. That was before the Packers beat the Cowboys for the NFL title in The Ice Bowl, leading up to their Super Bowl II victory against Oakland.
Not uptight
The Eagles thought they were too tight for the three NFC title games they lost before last week. So Reid encouraged two of his veteran leaders, middle linebacker Jeremiah Trotter and defensive end Hugh Douglas, to keep everybody loose before their game vs. the Atlanta Falcons.
Only 45 minutes before the most important game of their lives, Trotter and Douglas held an impromptu “dance party” in the locker room. And guess who they coaxed into participating? Club owner Jeffrey Lurie. Lurie called his performance “a white man’s attempt at trying to be a decent dancer. Not a very good attempt, but at least the guys were laughing like crazy. They were loose. I was loose.”
Said wide receiver and dance critic Greg Lewis of Lurie’s performance: “He’s a great guy, but he needs to come to my dance school. I’ll have to give him a few moves.”
High-priced coaches
Offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger will make just above $1 million a year for three years with the New York Jets after five years with the Tennessee Titans. That’s double what the Bears are paying Ron Turner.
Bob LaMonte, agent for eight NFL head coaches and 12 coordinators, told the Nashville Tennessean: “It used to be a coordinator was like an assistant coach and a head coach was a head coach. Now, a head coach is a CEO and a coordinator is like a head coach.
“Today a head coach has stadium issues, cap problems, ownership problems, a plethora of things that have nothing to do with game-planning. That role falls to coordinators who are head coach types. . . . Most, if not all, of our coordinators, make $1 million or more, it isn’t a phenomena anymore. Position coaches will rise into the $850,000 to $900,000 area–some already are.”
The Dolphins signed offensive line coach Hudson Houck to a three-year, $2.5 million deal after his contract with San Diego expired and the Chargers weren’t willing to ante up.
Launch pad
Hard to believe New England’s 31-10 victory over Philadelphia in Week 2 of 2003 would be a turning point for both teams.
Both were coming off devastating season-opening losses. The Patriots had been blown out 31-0 in Buffalo days after Belichick surprisingly had cut safety Lawyer Milloy and the Bills had signed him. There were reports Belichick was facing a locker-room mutiny.
The Eagles had lost their Lincoln Financial Field opener 17-0 to the reigning Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. When the Patriots came in and held the Eagles to one touchdown (on a run by since-departed Duce Staley), fans were booing Donovan McNabb, who had yet to throw a touchdown pass on the season.
Patriots linebacker Tedy Bruschi recalled the week as “very emotional. . . . Are you just going to sit there and let things go ho-hum for the rest of the year, or you can go out there and play some good football and just realize that we have 15 games left. Let’s come out of Philly 1-1.'”
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The Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl and are 34-3 since. The Eagles played Buffalo next, won and then went on to lose their third straight NFC title game. They are 28-6 since losing to the Patriots.