Dale Jarrett, who knows a thing or two about what it takes to win a Winston Cup championship, figures as many as 20 drivers have shots at the title in the coming season.
That enormous number arose the other day after Jarrett began, “I can name three or four in a hurry.” He then proceeded within seconds to name six: “You’re looking at two in Bobby Labonte and Tony Stewart out of Joe Gibbs Racing; my teammate, Ricky Rudd; Dale Earnhardt [the elder], Jeff Gordon, Rusty Wallace . . . “
Jarrett hadn’t even included himself–and there’s no doubt the 1999 champion, whose fourth-place finish last year was his worst since ’95, will be back in the hunt this year–so that made seven.
Pondering further, he added: “I honestly believe there are 10 or 12 drivers and teams who could legitimately say they are championship contenders. Then there’s another seven or eight, if they can get off to the right start and things work well for them in the beginning.”
But that’s at season’s outset, before the breaks set in–the wrecks that were somebody else’s fault; the flat tires; the broken transmissions after routine pit stops; that one lug nut left loose in the pits; that one experimental part that causes the whole engine to blow; the luck of the running order when the rain starts.
No championship quest in any sport is more vulnerable to bad breaks than the Winston Cup.
And so if you’re trying to forecast what amounts to the singular survivor of all that can go wrong in 36 races over nearly 10 months, you look for teams proven at making the best of the awful situations that are sure to arise.
At that, 2000 champion Labonte and his crew chief, Jimmy Makar, remain at their peak and have no peers.
Neither do their Pontiac race cars, in overall balance for the myriad configurations of tracks that lie ahead on the tour.
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Says Labonte: “If we could just do what we did last year … but things will come up, week in, week out that we have to go through. Hopefully our driving style, our ability to prepare race cars and engines, get in the right frame of mind to go to the race track, be focused on winning races but definitely finishing them if we can’t win them.”
To win the Cup, you have to lead what appears to be a charmed existence all season–but what is actually a very calculated grace under fire.
The brightest example came in last year’s Southern 500 at Darlington when Labonte failed to lead, all that rainy day in September, until moments before the bottom fell out of the South Carolina skies to end the race. Labonte took the checkered flag.
It wasn’t so much a matter of luck as of adjusting a fitful race car, pit stop after pit stop, finally getting it right, then choosing to stay out under caution and inherit the lead at what, they calculated, was the opportune time.
Makar is the current maestro of the magnificent call at the crucial moment in the pits, having taken over the pinnacle (if only barely) from Jarrett’s crew chief, Todd Parrott.
And so, though 20 with “potential” will start the chase in the season-opening Daytona 500 on Feb. 18, there will be only a half-dozen contenders by the halfway point, and then, in November, there will be one:
Bobby Labonte will repeat.
Oh, c’mon, you say–that’s the calculated version. OK, here are more effervescent possibilities for the championship:
The dazzling version: If Labonte’s teammate, Stewart, who emerged from last season as the winningest sophomore in the history of Winston Cup (three victories in ’99, six in 2000), dodges the intermittent bad breaks and DNFs of last year, he can win it all.
That’s entirely possible, but not likely. Stewart’s crew chief, Greg Zipadelli, is learning in leaps and bounds from Makar, who is generous with his savvy. But even Labonte points out that the junior wing of Joe Gibbs Racing needs the experience of a narrow loss in a stretch run to the title, as a stepping stone to the Cup itself.
Most popular dark horse: If Jeff Burton eliminates the “or else” from his lead-or-else ways, and his Roush Racing team has better luck with its relentless experimentation to gain an edge with parts, Burton can become a very popular champion.
But critics of team owner Jack Roush maintain there’s a reason none of his drivers ever has won the championship–that Roush, perhaps just too brilliant an engineer, tends to micromanage.
Plus, Burton personally just doesn’t relish having to struggle for points after bad breaks happen to him in races. He would rather run to win, all the time.
The sentimental version: Tough old Earnhardt could win his eighth Cup, to break his tie with the retired Richard Petty for career titles.
What gives the Intimidator a reasonable shot is that Goodyear this year will provide tires of a harder compound, which may tend to cause a lot more slipping and sliding through the corners at many tracks.
Earnhardt, an old dirt-tracker, is the best there is in “loose” cars that behave erratically. But that may not be enough of an advantage.
Neither Earnhardt, who turns 50 this year, nor his Richard Childress Racing team, have shown the ability to grind out consistent finishes down the stretch of a season, the way they did in the early ’90s.
The controversial version: Gordon could return to his dominating style of the late ’90s, giving his legions of detractors something to boo about again, because his Hendrick Motorsports team now has sorted out the Chevrolet Monte Carlos that were so cantankerous last season.
But it’s not clear Gordon is ready to recover from the gutting of his pit crew in ’99, when crew chief Ray Evernham left to head the Dodge effort, and five of the elite Rainbow Warrior’s who had serviced Gordon’s car jumped to Jarrett’s team.
Second-year crew chief Robbie Loomis has the house in order, but all told, this team may need one of those close-second finishes for the championship in order to solidify.
Second most logical version: Jarrett and Parrott could recover their championship form of ’99 completely, after being thrown off their intricate chassis setups by the unusual nuances in the construction of the tires Goodyear supplied in 2000.
“It’s hard to believe tires could make that much difference,” says Jarrett, but last year’s versions “helped a lot of teams solve a lot of problems they couldn’t solve on their own–helped them be more competitive. But it threw everything out the window for us.”
Hot laps: The lock Ferrari (Michael Schumacher-Rubens Barrichello) and McLaren (Mika Hakkinen-David Coulthard) have again on the Formula One world championship this year is confirmed by Jacques Villeneuve’s goal for his British American Racing team, even with resurgent Honda power: third in the points.
The Earnhardts, Junior and Senior, have aroused a lot of NASCAR partisans’ hopes by entering this weekend’s Rolex 24 sports car race at Daytona. But no NASCAR driver ever has won that race overall, though Mark Martin has won his class four times. And the Earnhardts’ Chevrolet simply will be no match for steady-running European cars designed for endurance.
As for personal readiness, Senior historically has required very little sleep in any given 24-hour period. But Junior likes to sleep a lot.
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If the Winston Cup comes down to a Dale Jarrett-Bobby Labonte duel, then Patti Jarrett Makar may have to deal with mixed emotions. She’s Jarrett’s sister, but married to Labonte’s crew chief, Jimmy Makar. The precedent for wives in such dilemmas in NASCAR was set by Judy Allison when her husband, Bobby, and son, Davey, finished 1-2 in the 1988 Daytona 500. Who was Judy pulling for? “Bobby,” she said firmly. “He’s the one who pays my bills.”
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Ed Hinton can be reached at [email protected]