As candidates line up Monday and begin filing petitions to appear on Chicago’s Feb. 23 municipal ballot, Mayor Brandon Johnson’s bid for a second term faces strong headwinds, with Chicagoans at large disapproving of his job performance and likely voters showing little enthusiasm for him seeking reelection, a new poll found.
The survey of 1,108 adult Chicago residents, including 935 who identified themselves as likely voters, found 53% of Chicagoans overall disapproved of Johnson’s job performance while only 22% approved. Another 25% had no opinion.
Among likely voters, 55% said they were not enthused by Johnson’s candidacy and, among those who said they voted for Johnson four years ago, only a quarter said he was their first choice for mayor in the 2027 race.
The poll was commissioned by the Mansueto Institute for Urban Innovation and was conducted Sept. 13-23 by NORC, an independent, nonpartisan research organization at the University of Chicago. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 4.11%; for likely voters it is 4.47%.
The mayor, a former Chicago Teachers Union organizer and Cook County Board member, defeated then-incumbent Mayor Lori Lightfoot in February 2023 and then won the April 2023 runoff against Paul Vallas by a little more than 26,000 votes, 52% to 48%. But his first term has been buffeted by controversy and chaos. He has made reliable enemies out of a majority bloc of aldermen, alienated leaders in Springfield and lost some allies. However, the firebrand progressive has blamed the scrutiny on the city’s big-business interests that he says are trying to undermine his agenda for the working class.
He has made little headway with city residents since NORC/Mansueto began measuring mayoral approval in the second quarter of 2025. His approval rating has stayed below 30%, and his disapproval rating has remained above 50% in every survey except the first three months of this year, when it measured at 49%.
Johnson’s disapproval was highest on the Northwest Side at 64.5%. It was lowest in his West Side home base, at 44%, and on the South Side, at 49%. Although more than 53% on the Southwest Side disapproved of how he is doing his job as mayor, the area also gave him his highest approval rate, at 25%. Nearly 33% on the West Side, where Johnson lives in the Austin community, said they had no opinion on his job performance.
Race always plays a role in Chicago politics, and the poll found the job approval of Johnson, the city’s fourth Black mayor, was only 24% among Black residents, while 46.5% of Black respondents disapproved. The poll found that 61% of white and 49.5% of Hispanic city residents disapproved of Johnson’s job performance.
Among likely voters, only 32% said they were excited by Johnson’s candidacy for a second term, and his support was roughly split equally among Black voters, whites and Hispanics. When voters who said they cast ballots for Johnson four years ago were asked their first choice for mayor this time, 25% cited the incumbent.
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The poll also tested support in what is still a developing field, including some names that have since chosen to pass on a mayoral bid and excluding some who have been added to the lengthy list of competitors.
The results found Illinois Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias, whose multimillion-dollar campaign bankroll has funded a heavy dose of TV ads, with support from about a quarter of likely voters, with Johnson next at 14% and none of the others recording double-digit support. Among Johnson’s 2023 voters, 22% gave Giannoulias as their first choice for mayor.
Among all likely voters, 59% said they were excited by Giannoulias’ candidacy, as he is seeking a second term as secretary of state in the Nov. 3 general election while also running for mayor. The poll also found that 46% of likely voters viewed the candidacy of state Comptroller Susana Mendoza, who opted not to seek reelection to her state post to run for mayor, enthusiastically.
Still, a significant 34% of likely voters said they were undecided, leaving plenty of room for attitudes to change once the mayoral campaign goes into full swing.
Additionally, Johnson has a powerful ally in the CTU, which can supply a political army of supporters and volunteers for get-out-the-vote efforts on his behalf.
The poll results come as the weeklong candidate petition filing period begins at 9 a.m. Monday at the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners. Candidates in line when the doors open will be entered in a lottery for a top spot on the ballot. Those who file in the hour before the filing period ends on Oct. 26 will also be part of a lottery to determine whose name appears at the bottom of the ballot.
Mayoral candidates must submit nominating petitions with at least 12,500 valid signatures from registered voters, though they often file far more names to survive potential challenges to their ballot eligibility.