Chicago is often described in ideological terms: a blue city, a progressive city, an asylum city, a Democratic city. All of that is true enough. It is also incomplete.
Chicagoans may lean Democratic, but when it comes to city government, they do not gauge success or failure through a lens focused on national partisan politics, constitutional crises or world affairs.
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They are practical people living with practical problems. They want neighborhoods that feel safe, schools that teach, taxes they can afford, services that function and leadership that seems focused on solving problems rather than narrating them.
For Chicago residents, next February’s municipal elections are really a referendum on competency. This is what makes Mayor Brandon Johnson so politically vulnerable.
Our latest polling shows a city that has not given up on itself, but is deeply unconvinced by its current leadership. More residents rate Chicago’s overall condition positively than rate the mayor’s performance positively: Almost half (44%) describe the city’s condition as excellent or good, but just a quarter say the same about Johnson’s performance, and not quite half say it’s been fair or poor.
That gap matters. Voters are not saying Chicago is in a doom loop. They are saying the city has potential that is not being translated into capable governance that would make their hometown flourish even more.
The reelection warning signs are already clear. Only 1 in 6 Chicago residents say they’re sticking with Johnson. More than twice as many (37%) say they want someone else running the city, with a plurality of 47% saying they’re undecided. Bottom line: More than 4 in 5 are either actively looking for an alternative or open to one.
The most important finding is not that voters are moving right or left. It is that they are not cohering around ideology at all. When asked what kind of mayor they want next, Chicago adults are divided almost evenly: 28% say moderate, 24% say progressive, 21% say conservative and 27% are not sure.
Next year’s mayoral election may not be decided by who can best claim an ideological lane. It may be decided by whoever can convince would-be voters they can actually run the city.
A full three years into Johnson’s term, most residents think city government falls short. A majority of 60% rate government services as fair or poor, versus 2 in 5 who rate them excellent or good.
The mayor’s vulnerability is therefore bigger than one controversy or one bad news cycle. It is structural. Voters see a city with potential, but they do not see a City Hall that is meeting the moment. They see service gaps, economic uncertainty, fiscal stress and political conflict. And they are increasingly open to a different kind of leadership.
Residents are more practical than many politicians assume. They may support Democratic values, but they also expect competent management. They may care about equity and civil rights, but they also care about execution. They may want an ambitious city, but they also want one that can provide public safety, deliver basic services and balance a budget while keeping a lid on taxes — under a leader who communicates clearly about what is being done.
This is the lane for a challenger who could triumph over Johnson.
This is also the lane that the mayor could sprint to. By emphasizing his accomplishments rather than his aspirations, he may be able to turn people in the “fair” and “not sure” blocs into backers and boost his chance of a second term. He still has time to reach out beyond his base.
Chicagoans are not asking for perfection. They are asking for progress they can see and competence they can feel. Right now, our polling suggests they are not getting enough of either.
Will Johnson is the Chicago-based CEO of Outward Intelligence, an artificial intelligence-powered quantitative research company.
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