Donald Trump is campaigning to return to the White House, which Bill Clinton once called “the crown jewel of the federal penal system.” But Trump would be wise to focus on avoiding permanent residence in one of the less comfortable outposts of the prison complex.
Already indicted in New York state court on charges of tax fraud and other crimes, he was recently arraigned on federal charges of illegally keeping classified documents and obstructing justice. If convicted in either case, he could be sentenced to years or even decades in prison. That’s not counting the possible charges for seditious conspiracy related to his alleged role in the Jan. 6 insurrection, or those related to alleged election interference in Georgia over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
The classified documents case looks especially strong. “If even half of it is true, then he’s toast,” said his former attorney general, William Barr. “It’s a very detailed indictment, and it’s very, very damning.” Investigators have a recording of Trump talking about classified material that he did not declassify as president but did keep — a prosecutor’s dream come true.
He has tried to deny the gravity of his legal predicament: After CNN aired the leaked recording, he claimed he didn’t really have the documents he mentioned. “It was just bravado,” he said. But prosecutors have a Denali-sized mountain of evidence — and prosecutors rarely bring cases unless they expect to win.
Trump, despite his bluster, is at high risk in both courts. If he goes to trial and is convicted, the 77-year-old former president could very well spend his remaining days on earth in prison.
But that’s if he’s foolish enough to go to trial. He could agree to plead guilty to less serious offenses in exchange for a lighter sentence — reducing or maybe avoiding prison time. It’s safe to say that almost any defense attorney, representing a client with so much evidence against him, would advise accepting a plea bargain. In fact, 98% of federal criminal cases end that way.
Trump, of course, vows to beat the rap. But that’s not an irrevocable commitment. Plenty of defendants who strenuously claimed to be innocent have eventually seen the wisdom of copping a plea.
The former president is not famous for doing what a sane person would do in any given situation. But one thing you can count on Trump to do is whatever is best for him alone. When he finally comes to grips with the stark prospect of what amounts to a life sentence behind bars, he may decide to take a deal. Trump has often denied liability in lawsuits — only to agree in the end to pay a large settlement rather than entrust his fate to a jury.
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The prospects before him are bleak. First, he stands a good chance of being convicted of multiple felonies. Second, he stands a good chance of losing a presidential race. Trump may think that if he were to win, he could pardon himself, but the courts would probably rule against him. Even if they didn’t, his pardon power would be useless against state convictions.
Trump might be able to serve as president from prison — but what’s the appeal of our highest office if you have to undergo strip searches, wear prison-issue uniforms, eat bad food and take orders from armed guards? Also: no golf or McDonald’s.
He also has to realize upon his inauguration, he could be deposed through impeachment or the 25th Amendment. Even many Republicans in Congress might rather elevate his running mate to the presidency than stand loyally by Inmate No. 12345-004.
You may assume that special counsel Jack Smith, New York District Attorney Alvin Bragg or other prosecutors would not be open to a deal that Trump would take. Why let him off with a light sentence? Aside from the risk of an acquittal, they might prefer to spare the country the divisive ordeal of his trial — if they could extract an admission of guilt and impose meaningful punishment.
Trump has one oversize bargaining chip: He could agree to give up his presidential campaign and accept ironclad conditions to enforce that promise. In that scenario, he might get off with a big fine and a relatively short stay in a minimum-security facility — or, conceivably, no prison time at all.
Making a deal with prosecutors that brands him as a convicted felon, and giving up his presidential ambition, would be hard for Trump to accept. But not as hard as dying in prison.
Steve Chapman was a member of the Tribune Editorial Board from 1981 to 2021. His columns, exclusive to the Tribune, appear the first Thursday of every month. He can be reached at [email protected].
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