Chicago residents yearning for a white Christmas are likely to get more than they hoped for, as meteorologists are looking at a possible “near blizzard,” with snow and subfreezing winds that could remind residents of the 2011 Groundhog Day blizzard.
The National Weather Service’s Chicago office on Monday released a forecast that predicted the strong possibility of snow, strong winds and cold air arriving ahead of Christmas.
“Major storm system affecting the area Thursday through Saturday, with the most significant impacts from accumulating and blowing snow and very strong winds late Thursday afternoon into Friday night,” the weather service forecast stated.
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Snow is expected to move in Thursday, one of the busiest travel days of the year, with conditions worsening late Thursday into Friday. By Christmas Eve and Day, air temperatures are expected to be well below average with wind chills between minus 20 and minus 30 degrees Fahrenheit.
Just how much snow the Chicago area gets depends largely on the storm’s path, which could shift during the week, officials said. Still, forecasters said they have high confidence in “dangerous cold, strong winds possibly with damage potential, along with blowing/drifting snow.”
“Worst-case scenario is it could potentially rival the Groundhog Day blizzard of 2011,” said Kevin Birk, a weather service meteorologist, referring to the deadly February 2011 storm that dumped more than 20 inches of snow on Chicago. “It’s certainly a possibility that we’re watching closely, but that type of scenario isn’t necessarily set in stone yet.”
“The main uncertainty lies in how much snow we’ll actually get in the area. It’s looking likely that we’re going to see some pretty good impacts from the system, whether it’s a lot of snow and blizzard-like conditions, or just a little bit of snow with some near-blizzard conditions at times,” Birk said.
The storm comes during the busiest holiday travel season in years, which also coincides with a large scale winter storm that has enveloped much of the central and Midwest U.S. for the past week.
An estimated 113 million people were expected to travel for the Christmas holiday, with 90% of Illinois travelers moving by car, according to AAA Chicago. This year’s travel numbers are higher by more than 3.6 million people over last year’s holiday totals and closing in on pre-pandemic numbers.
The resumed travel is likely due to separation brought on by the pandemic and social restrictions.
“We’re just out of the pandemic — though (numbers) are going up again — many people for the past couple of years have stayed home due to the pandemic, so this was their holiday to go celebrate with friends, family and loved ones,” said AAA Chicago spokeswoman Molly Hart.
The news of impending weather has made some holiday travelers alter their plans, according to Hart. “Because we don’t know where this blizzard is hitting or how heavy it’s going to be, it’s making people change their travel options,” she said. “Many people are trying to get on the road either today or tomorrow before the impact to snow.”
For air travelers, Hart suggested they get travel insurance for their flights that would cover food vouchers, transportation and hotel accommodations in the event that flight cancellations ripple across airports. “This is something people should take into consideration, not only here in Illinois, but nationally because this is going to have a domino effect,” Hart said.
Hart, along with city and state roadway officials reminded motorists to have emergency supplies in their vehicles in case they break down by the side of the road. Last week, city officials held a winter weather briefing, where they asked residents to stay alert on weather updates and alerts and to use city services, including city warming centers.
In the coming days, officials with the Office of Emergency Management and Communication and the Department of Streets and Sanitation, which controls the city’s fleet of snow plows and salt trucks, will track the advance of the storm, with OEMC coordinating response efforts through the Operations Center. On Thursday, city officials will hold an availability with better knowledge of the storm’s course.
Following the 2011 blizzard, which was believed responsible for a dozen deaths, the city created an emergency plan to prevent motorists and public transit riders from being stranded on snow-ravaged roads.
The storm could serve as the winter season’s first test of the city’s expressway system since the completion of construction on the long-awaited Jane Byrne Interchange. On the bright side, IDOT spokeswoman Maria Castaneda said the end of construction means clear lanes for emergency vehicles and wider off ramps just when they may be needed most.
“It’s going to definitely be easier to clean in that area of the Byrne because you’re not going to have the construction cones or barrels or any of the permanent Jersey wall that’s up — you won’t have that because it’s all been picked up,” Castaneda said. “Having all of that construction gear removed is definitely a big plus.”
The Chicago area hasn’t had more than 3 inches of snow during Christmas since Christmas week 2008, while the coldest recent Christmas was 2000, when the wind chill was minus 17, according to the weather service.
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