There were three plausible outcomes in the presidential race: a narrow Joe Biden win, a narrow Donald Trump win, and a Biden landslide. All we know tonight is that the third scenario is off the table. Either of the other possibilities is still open. And we won’t know which it will be before tomorrow.
Democrats, buoyed by encouraging polls, saw a real chance of winning Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, with a few daring to dream of snatching Texas and Georgia. But winning more than one of those would have required something resembling the blue wave of 2018. North Carolina and Ohio, as I write, could still flip to Biden. If not, then Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will probably decide the outcome.
Nor do Democrats appear likely to gain control of the Senate. So even if Biden wins, he will probably face a huge obstacle to any major legislation. He could be foiled from filling any Supreme Court vacancies that may arise. For that matter, it’s not clear GOP leader Mitch McConnell would allow confirmation of any judges at all.
The returns we’ve seen so far suggest that the nation is evenly and starkly divided, making turnout the crucial variable. The Washington Post reports that a poll it did recently in collaboration with the University of Maryland “found that at least half of Americans believe that a person’s political party represents ‘how they live their lives.’ And a study by a Stanford University political scientist suggested that party affiliation is stronger than race, religion or ethnicity.”
Stronger than race or religion. That explains why so many Republican voters remain loyal to Trump in spite of all the things he’s done that they would regard as disqualifying coming from a Democrat. It also explains why moving votes from one party to the other is harder than it used to be. Voting for Trump or Biden, to many people, is not a choice of one person or the other; it’s an expression of personal identity, and personal identity is not lightly altered.
Biden campaigned on the hope of restoring national unity. Even if he wins, it’s safe to say, Americans remain deeply divided.
Steve Chapman, a member of the Tribune Editorial Board, blogs at www.chicagotribune.com/chapman.
Twitter @SteveChapman13
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