It’s the start of the season, and the Cubs and Sox hope to kick off their 2016 campaigns with a win. Starting with a win doesn’t predict much about the remaining 161 games, but a losing trend through April might portend a lost season.
The Tribune analyzed win/loss records from 115 seasons of Cubs and White Sox baseball, and those seasons are charted below.
The Cubs are scheduled to play 24 games this month, while the Sox are scheduled to play 26. Naturally, all wins and losses count equally during the long season, but reversing a losing trend after 25 games can be difficult. Since 1901, the Cubs and Sox have a combined 108 seasons (54 each) with records below .500 after 25 games. Of those 108 teams, only four played any postseason baseball.
Cubs seasons since 1901
Regular season games above/below .500
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KEY:
Best record: The 1906 Cubs
finished with a record of 116-36,
80 games above .500
Cubs teams that played
in the postseason
80
70
60
50
Cubs’ best
starting streak:
7-0, 1934
40
30
20
10
-10
-20
-30
Cubs’ worst starting streak:
0-14, 1997
-40
-50
Worst record: 1962 and 1966,
59-103, 44 games below .500
-60
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KEY:
Cubs teams that played
in the postseason
Best record: The 1906 Cubs finished with
a record of 116-36, 80 games above .500
Cubs’ best starting streak: 7-0, 1934
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
-10
-20
-30
-40
Cubs’ worst starting streak: 0-14, 1997
Worst record: 1962 and 1966,
59-103, 44 games below .500
After 1 game
From 1901 to 2015, the Cubs have won three more games than they’ve lost on opening day. Winning or losing this one game has little impact on the rest of the season. (The Cubs have also opened their season with two ties.)
Cubs teams that won their first game
Regular season games above/below .500
58
Number of teams that started with this record
.508
Average end-of-season winning percentage
9
Playoff appearances
Cubs teams that lost their first game
Regular season games above/below .500
55
Number of teams that started with this record
.491
Average end-of-season winning percentage
8
Playoff appearances
After 10 games
The season prognosis becomes clearer after 10 games. There have been 41 Cubs seasons where the team was below .500 after 10 games, and only nine of those teams were able to turn their season around and finish with a winning record. Only one team was able to make the playoffs after winning less than half of their first 10: the 2007 squad in the first year of Lou Piniella’s tenure as manager.
Cubs teams that were .500 or better after 10 games
Regular season games above/below .500
74
Number of teams that started with this record
.522
Average end-of-season winning percentage
16
Playoff appearances
Cubs teams that were under .500 after 10 games
Regular season games above/below .500
41
Number of teams that started with this record
.460
Average end-of-season winning percentage
1
Playoff appearances
After 25 games
The 1945 Cubs came out of the gate fast, going 7-3 in their first 10 games. But they hit a snag, and fell below .500 on their 25th game. However, a strong second half propelled the team to the National League pennant, and the Cubs’ last appearance in the World Series.
The 1945 season joins 2007 as the only two times the Cubs have made the postseason after having a losing record over their first 25 games.
Cubs teams that were .500 or better after 25 games
Regular season games above/below .500
61
Number of teams that started with this record
.541
Average end-of-season winning percentage
15
Playoff appearances
Cubs teams that were under .500 after 25 games
Regular season games above/below .500
54
Number of teams that started with this record
.453
Average end-of-season winning percentage
2
Playoff appearances
White Sox seasons since 1901
Regular season games above/below .500
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KEY:
White Sox teams that played
in the postseason
80
Best record: The 1917 White Sox
finished with a record of 100-54,
46 games above .500
70
60
50
Sox’ best
starting streak:
8-0, 1982
40
30
20
10
-10
-20
-30
Sox’ worst starting streak:
0-10, 1968
-40
-50
Worst record: 1932,
49-102, 53 games below .500
-60
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KEY:
White Sox teams that played
in the postseason
Best record: The 1917 Sox finished with
a record of 100-54, 46 games above .500
Sox’ best starting streak: 8-0, 1982
60
50
40
30
20
10
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
Sox’ worst starting streak: 0-10, 1968
Worst record: 1932,
49-102, 53 games below .500
After 1 game
The White Sox have won 5 more games than they’ve lost on opening day in the 115 seasons since 1901. As the first game in a 162-game season, it has little impact on their season as a whole.
White Sox teams that won their first game
Regular season games above/below .500
60
Number of teams that started with this record
.512
Average end-of-season winning percentage
6
Playoff appearances
White Sox teams that lost their first game
Regular season games above/below .500
55
Number of teams that started with this record
.496
Average end-of-season winning percentage
3
Playoff appearances
After 10 games
No White Sox team that was under .500 after 10 games has gone on to appear in the postseason, and less than one-third of the 41 teams with those starts went on to have a winning record at the end of the season. Sox teams that start the first 10 games at or above .500 average about 10 more wins over the course of a 162-game season.
White Sox teams that were .500 or better after 10 games
Regular season games above/below .500
74
Number of teams that started with this record
.526
Average end-of-season winning percentage
9
Playoff appearances
White Sox teams that were under .500 after 10 games
Regular season games above/below .500
41
Number of teams that started with this record
.465
Average end-of-season winning percentage
0
Playoff appearances
After 25 games
In 1983, the White Sox started their first 25 games with a record of 12-13. They eventually fell to 16-24, eight games below .500, before they started “winning ugly,” rallying in the second half of the season and finishing 99-63, the best record in baseball that year. The ’83 Sox went on to lose the ALCS to the Baltimore Orioles three games to one.
The last time the Sox finished their 25th game above .500 was in 2008.
White Sox teams that were .500 or better after 25 games
Regular season games above/below .500
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61
Number of teams that started with this record
.538
Average end-of-season winning percentage
7
Playoff appearances
White Sox teams that were under .500 after 25 games
Regular season games above/below .500
54
Number of teams that started with this record
.467
Average end-of-season winning percentage
2
Playoff appearances
Source: Tribune analysis of Baseball-reference.com data
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