The following information is my reconstruction of a number of live television news reports about the shootings Wednesday in San Bernardino, Calif.
Anchor: Our crime and terrorism expert, Mr. Grimm, has joined us to offer insight into the mass shootings in San Bernardino. Mr. Grimm, what do you make of what we’ve heard so far from the field?
Grimm: Well, it is clear this seems to be a well-coordinated attack, for one thing.
Anchor: How do you reach that conclusion?
Grimm: From what we’ve heard from witnesses, the gunmen wore the same color of clothing.
Anchor: Good point.
Grimm: You don’t dress up in the same colors on the same day unless you are twins or have planned everything in advance.
Anchor: So we could possibly have twins involved in this incident?
Grimm: Well, initial reports indicated there were three people involved, so it would be triplets. But I don’t want to jump to any conclusions until all the facts are in.
Anchor: Do you believe this is possibly a terrorist attack?
Grimm: It could be. It might not be. But indications are that it is terrorism.
Anchor: And why do you say that?
Grimm: There was obviously preplanning involved. Detailed planning.
Anchor: For example?
Grimm: They used a car. They had guns and ammunition. They left the car, went inside, shot people and left in a car very quickly. That doesn’t happen by accident.
Anchor: Very interesting. Is there anything else that suggests to you that this was a terrorist attack?
Grimm: The perpetrators were apparently dressed in black.
Anchor: And that suggests …
Grimm: Terrorists like black clothing. If they were wearing yellow, orange or camouflage, that would suggest something else entirely.
Anchor: But couldn’t anyone purchase black clothes in a store or on the Internet?
Grimm: We’re talking about black tactical-type uniforms. Based on my years of experience, if you see two or more people carrying guns and wearing black tactical gear, you can be pretty sure they’re not working for the Salvation Army.
Anchor: What about the weapons here? What does that suggest?
Grimm: This was obviously a well-financed, preplanned and orchestrated operation.
Anchor: Because …
Grimm: The attackers were carrying what have been described as AR-15-type rifles, long guns, and also had handguns.
Anchor: And that tells you what?
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Grimm: Lots of preplanning. Highly organized. Trained personnel who came on a mission.
Anchor: Military training?
Grimm: Something like that.
Anchor: Exactly how difficult would it be for the average person to get an AR-15 and a handgun?
Grimm: It’s not easy. There may be only a million, 2 million people in America who have those guns in combination. So I would say it’s pretty rare.
Anchor: Actually, we don’t have a clue as to how many people own these weapons in this country, do we?
Grimm: No. But when you combine the weapons, the black clothes, the dark-colored SUV they were driving …
Anchor: Those are all indicators …
Grimm: To the trained eye, they spell organization, long-term planning and intent.
Anchor: When you talk about planning, what sort of thing are we talking about, specifically?
Grimm: People would have to be in contact with each other, in communication, as we say in the trade. They might text, send emails or call each other on cellphones.
Anchor: And you wouldn’t see that sort of communication unless the attack had been coordinated and planned in advance?
Grimm: These people were in communication. That’s clear. And I am not sure we’ve seen this level of coordination in any previous terrorist attack.
Anchor: Of course, we don’t know this was a terrorist attack.
Grimm: We need to withhold judgment until all the evidence has been collected, and the FBI will be doing that in pretty rapid fashion.
Anchor: That said, what do you make of what we know right now?
Grimm: We don’t really know anything, but I would say we are witnessing a new level of terrorist activity on American soil, more detailed planning, more people involved than we have ever seen before and an increased investment in coordinated clothing.
Anchor: Of course, we don’t know anything right now.
Grimm: True. But based on what we don’t know, the lack of information available, we can make some pretty educated guesses.
Anchor: We are now being told that there are two suspects down. Two of the gunmen have apparently been shot, and the third one has apparently fled into a nearby neighborhood.
Grimm: That’s going to be very, very hard for law enforcement to track that individual down. They will have to do a house-by-house search. Hostages could be taken. Night is coming on. The suspect who is at large could have explosives.
Anchor: So this is a potentially dangerous situation.
Grimm: It’s not good.
Anchor: We’ve now been told that police have a person in custody. This individual may or may not have been involved in the shootings. It might just be someone who was running away from the scene. What do you make of that?
Grimm: These situations are often chaotic, but the question I would be asking is if the individual in custody is dressed in black clothes.
Anchor: That would be an indicator …
Grimm: It would just be one of many factors that someone trained in anti-terrorism could use to evaluate the level of the current threat.
Anchor: According to our sources, one of the suspects arrived at a holiday party, was confronted by someone, there was some sort of angry exchange, and the suspect left and returned later.
Grimm: If that’s true, it means this entire thing was preplanned. You don’t just leave, return with armed accomplices dressed in tactical gear and launch an assault.
Anchor: It now appears there may have been only two shooters, not three as previously reported.
Grimm: Well, that still indicates a level of coordination and planning, but the fact is we don’t know at this time how many people were involved in the attack.
Anchor: Should the lack of information, perhaps, indicate that we should withhold judgment or at least attempt to verify any of the details before we talk about them on a national television news show?
Grimm: I would urge everyone to withhold judgment, but you are paying me a lot of money as a consultant, and there are experts all over the news shows offering opinions, so we will continue to speculate as accurately as possible using all the misinformation that we can contribute to the dialogue.
Anchor: So it really doesn’t matter what we say right now, as long as we keep the attention of viewers.
Grimm: Based on my years of experience, people by tomorrow will forget everything we say today, so we’re pretty safe in making assumptions based on rumors and inaccurate reports.
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Anchor: We are now told that the attackers may not have been wearing bulletproof vests as previously reported.
Grimm: But they wore black vests and matching black tactical gear, and that’s important to remember.
Anchor: Some people might suggest we should refrain from speculation until we have at least some clue as to what happened here today.
Grimm: Based on my experience, there’s no reason at all to assemble any facts before making educated guesses about what exactly happened here today.