I have this theory that the Big Ten’s best hope to make the College Football Playoff is not its highest-ranked team, not the group that (finally) salvaged conference pride by winning the Rose Bowl.
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Michigan State is ranked No. 5 in the USA Today coaches poll by virtue of, well, starting the season in the top 10 (No. 6), pummeling the likes of Wyoming and Indiana and squeaking past Nebraska at home.
Based on that ranking, you might figure the Spartans could win out and waltz into the Big Dance, waiting for any team in the top four to stumble.
But fortunately, the College Football Playoff selection committee is not made up of coaches who can read complex defenses but have no interest in simple logic. Michigan State and Oregon are both 6-1. Oregon beat Michigan State 46-27. So, naturally, the Spartans are ranked higher.
Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com not only believes Michigan State is the Big Ten’s best hope for January glory, but also has the Spartans No. 4 in his projected playoff bracket with Ole Miss, Alabama and Florida State.
He assumes losses by a host of other one-loss teams, including Notre Dame, Oregon and Kansas State.
I’d normally defer to Palm, who studies this stuff around the clock and served on the mock playoff selection committee that assembled two weeks ago in Dallas.
“We went around the room and argued over the top six for two hours,” he said. “All 17 of us said what we think is the most important criterion — and we had 17 different answers. I said an ability to beat quality teams, especially away from home.”
Aha! That leads me back to my theory that Ohio State is the Big Ten’s best candidate. Here are a few reasons:
* The Nov. 8 Ohio State-Michigan State game will be played in East Lansing, so a victory would mean more to the Buckeyes.
* Ohio State has been obliterating teams of late, and not all bad teams: 66-0 over Kent State, 50-28 over Cincinnati, 52-24 at Maryland, 56-17 against Rutgers. (Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer tried to make it 63-17 by throwing on fourth-and-3 from the Rutgers 13 early in the fourth quarter. Although the committee is not supposed to factor in margin of victory, he’s no dummy.)
* Granted, Ohio State’s loss was hideous — a 35-21 waxing by Virginia Tech during which the Buckeyes allowed seven sacks and threw three interceptions. But that was just the second career start for J.T. Barrett, who was supposed to spend the season sending in dummy signals to Braxton Miller. Will the committee take that semi-asterisk into account? “They might,” Palm said. “But it’s still a loss.”
* Ohio State is not boxed out by Oregon; Michigan State is.
* Credit Michigan State for scheduling that Sept. 6 game at Oregon. Its other nonconference games were awful — Jacksonville State, Eastern Michigan and Wyoming. Ohio State made something resembling an attempt to challenge itself with a slate that included a neutral-site game against Navy and home dates with Virginia Tech and Da Bear … Cats.
Fortunately we won’t have to wait much longer to find out what the selection committee values. At 6:30 p.m. Tuesday, the first batch of rankings will be released, and the public will get way more than a top four. We’ll be treated to a good, ol’-fashioned top 25.
Most analysts consider it odd the committee will spend so much time ranking so many teams, but you won’t get any complaints from this guy. I’m dying to see where all the one-loss Big Ten teams land, including Minnesota.
That will help us answer the eternal question: Big Ten football … is it as bad as SEC fans think?
Twitter @TeddyGreenstein
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