Every week I spend about two minutes predicting 10 national games for the Sporting News.
And every week I grind over these Big Ten picks, factoring in turnover ratio, second-down conversion rate, wind patterns in the stadium and the mental state of each mascot.
I’m a documented 43-27 on my Sporting News picks, a 61.4 percent win rate.
And I’m well below coin-flip status on my Big Ten picks, including last week’s 1-4. (Really, Illinois? You wait until Week 7 to unveil Aaron Bailey and his backdoor-covering skills?)
There must be a lesson here: Less (knowledge) is more (success).
Purdue (plus 13.5) at Minnesota: I love those slow-it-down, retro Gophers. But Purdue has enough firepower to keep this respectable. Take the Boilers.
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Iowa (plus 5) at Maryland: I don’t get Iowa. Is that offense for real or a product of Indiana’s olé defense? Whatevs, I’ll take the Hawkeyes and the points.
Rutgers (plus 22) at Ohio State: I’ve been underrating the Buckeyes all season, and it seems I’m about to do it again. Rutgers has the D-line to harass J.T. Barrett, at least a little. Go with the Scarlet Knights.
Michigan State (minus 15.5) at Indiana: Can someone explain why this spread isn’t four touchdowns? Won’t an angry Sparty defense torture a 175-pound freshman quarterback? Spartans all the way.
Nebraska (minus 7) at Northwestern: I like NU here, no doubt. (Tell me you didn’t see that coming.) What I see coming is a tight game. Take the Wildcats.
Last week: 1-4.
Season: 25-31-2.
Twitter @TeddyGreenstein