The Obama administration is considering a 19-month withdrawal plan for the bulk of U.S. troops in Iraq and could announce a timetable this week, military officials said Tuesday.
The plan would represent a compromise between the 16-month withdrawal timetable advocated by President Barack Obama during his campaign and the military’s proposal for a 23-month period.
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The plan would pull all combat forces out of Iraq by late 2010 but would leave a substantial “residual force” of as many 50,000 soldiers, at least through most of 2011.
A stepped-up Iraq withdrawal timeline is key to the Obama administration’s plans for increasing the number of combat and support troops in Afghanistan. It also is crucial to the administration’s plan to cut the federal deficit by reducing the cost of overseas deployments.
Although officials expect an announcement this week, a White House official said Tuesday that Obama has not made a decision on the precise withdrawal timetable.
Earlier this month, the Defense Department presented a 19-month withdrawal plan, along with the 16-month and 23-month options, to the Obama administration, military officials said.
A security agreement between U.S. and Iraqi officials requires that all U.S. forces leave the country by the end of 2011, although that deal could be renegotiated to allow a longer-term American presence if the Iraqis request such help.
Gen. Raymond Odierno, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, and other officers originally pushed for a 23-month timeline to keep a large number of troops in place for the national elections scheduled for this fall. A 19-month timeline will require the military to begin withdrawing some units before the elections.
But with the security gains of recent months, officers believe the 19-month compromise plan will work.
“Based on what we think is going on, that would be a reasonable timeline,” said a senior military officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because a final decision has not been made.
More important than the withdrawal timeline is the mission of the residual force, the officer said.
“The thing I would pay attention to is what will remain,” the officer said. “The key decision for the president is: What is that force, and what specific duties does it have?”
Military officials said the remaining troops would train the Iraqi army, conduct counterterrorism missions, provide logistics help and offer aerial surveillance and airstrikes. The senior officer said the troops also could help protect Iraq from outside attack, something the Iraqi military cannot yet do.
A key challenge for Obama will be to articulate why a small force needs to remain even after the bulk of the forces are pulled out.
“When President Obama said we were going to get out within 16 months, some people heard, ‘Get out,’ and everyone’s gone,” the senior officer said. “But that is not going to happen.”
Danger remains in Iraq, and the military considers a presence there important to stability in the Middle East.
“One of the challenges will be to articulate our interests in Iraq as an enduring enterprise,” the senior officer said. “That is the fine line the president is going to have to walk.”
In Iraq on Tuesday, a U.S. soldier and an Iraqi interpreter were killed and three American troops were injured when gunmen, who officials said wore Iraqi police uniforms, fired on them in the northern city of Mosul.
It was the third time since November that men in Iraqi security force uniforms have attacked American forces in Nineveh province.
A U.S. military statement gave few details of the incident, which it said occurred during a meeting at an Iraqi police station.
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