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This bay city’s bid for the 2016 Olympics has a familiar ring to it: a compact Summer Games in the heart of the city, with major competitive venues on the waterfront, as well as a privately financed Olympic Village that will be converted into a new neighborhood in a developing area after the Games.

The Japanese capital, which blends ancient history with the ultramodern, also touts in press materials its “highly advanced, integrated public transport system, a wealth of public attractions, including spacious parks, world-class hotels and a sophisticated urban infrastructure.”

The way Tokyo’s campaign themes mirror those in Chicago is almost eerie.

And while much attention has been paid to the competitive threat from Rio de Janeiro, which aims to be the first South American host city, and, to a lesser extent, Madrid, a strong runner-up in the 2012 contest, it is Tokyo that is sending chills up the spines of Chicago’s bid team, said a person close to the team.

The assessments of where Chicago stands among the seven cities competing to host the Games continue to shift. While many observers see the Windy City as the front-runner, U.S. Olympic Committee Chairman Peter Ueberroth met with the press Thursday to try to dispel that notion, appearing to prefer an underdog image and asserting Chicago is running behind Rio, Madrid and Tokyo.

But with the 2012 Summer Games in London, there are questions whether 2016 would go to a European city. And with Rio hosting the World Cup in 2014, there are questions whether it could handle another worldwide competition two years later.

Which leaves Tokyo looming very large in this horse race, which will narrow to several finalists next summer and to an ultimate winner in October 2009 when the International Olympic Committee’s members cast their votes.

And with good reason, say a number of observers.

“I definitely think Tokyo and Chicago are head-on competitors in terms of supporting infrastructure, strong leadership in local government and cohesiveness within civic leadership,” said Kathryn Ibata-Arens, a DePaul University political economist specializing in the Pacific Rim. “As a native Chicagoan, I really hope we get it, but when I saw Tokyo was the Asian front-runner, that really made me nervous.”

In assessing Tokyo’s bid, Ueberroth said, “I think the Japanese are putting much more in the way of assets and efforts toward their bid.”

Chicago’s 2016 bid team isn’t ranking its competitors, which also include Prague; Doha, Qatar; and Baku, Azerbaijan.

But bid leader Patrick Ryan, in discussing each of the city’s six rivals in a recent speech, painted a portrait of Tokyo that was a bit more formidable than some of the others: “Tokyo will be tough. … They’ve got the infrastructure and they have the will. As a matter of fact, they want to use it to modernize Tokyo. … And you all know about the tremendous public-private partnership that the government has with industry.”

Or as Olympics veteran A.D. Frazier put it, “The Japanese have a wonderful way of bringing Japan Inc. to bear, and if there is one thing that the IOC always takes into consideration, it’s money.” Frazier was chief operating officer for the Atlanta 1996 Summer Games.

On Thursday, Ueberroth urged Chicago’s corporate community to take a bigger role, including serving as overseas ambassadors. The private sector “needs to reach out with its skills and abilities,” he said.

Tokyo’s bid also presents Japan with an opportunity to “outdo the Chinese, and for that reason I’m sure they will go all out,” said Frazier, who is rooting for Chicago and believes its central time zone, much appreciated by U.S. television broadcasting, will work in its favor.

America’s turn

As will timing. With Sydney 2000 followed by Athens 2004, Beijing 2008 and London 2012, the prevailing wisdom is that 2016 likely will be in the Americas.

But projecting IOC decisions is a notoriously difficult business, as internal IOC politics, geopolitical events and any number of other wild cards can come into play.

If anti-American sentiment continues or escalates worldwide, for instance, that could spell trouble for Chicago.

Japan, which hosted the 1998 Nagano and 1972 Sapporo Winter Games, last hosted Summer Games in 1964, in Tokyo.

“More than 40 years ago, Asia’s first Olympic Games were an opportunity for Tokyo to show the world its miraculous recovery from the ravages of war,” Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara, president of the bid team, stated in a remarks posted on its Web site. “To secure Japan’s regeneration and bring new prosperity to the world, Tokyo is bidding to host the Games of the XXXI Olympiad.”

A key component of the Tokyo 2016 bid is to crank up the redevelopment of the Tokyo waterfront, which started about 15 years ago but has proceeded slowly. The goal is to develop fashionable housing, retail and entertainment in green surroundings, using large tracts of reclaimed land in Tokyo Bay, an area once known more for shipping and industry.

“My impression is that the landfill areas have been difficult for them to develop,” said Mark Finn, a professor of international business at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management. “Using these for the Olympics, they are going to get a lot of benefit to the city.”

The cornerstone of Tokyo’s plan is a 100,000-seat waterfront stadium to be designed by Pritzker Prize-winning architect Tadao Ando as the venue for opening and closing ceremonies and track and field. After the Games, it would be pared to 80,000 seats, as a sporting legacy.

Nearby, an Olympic Village would be privately constructed on a landfill island in the bay and would include five high-rise apartment buildings, symbolizing the five Olympic rings. The village, which would use recyclable energy and aim for total waste recycling, would be converted to rental apartments and condominiums after the Games.

In the same vicinity, a media center is planned for the site of the sprawling Tsukiji fish market, which the city intends to relocate, though there is some local opposition to the move.

For the media “this is a very good location,” Yasuhiro Nakamori, deputy director general of the bid team, said in a phone interview this week. “The Ginza [shopping district] is very close … 10 minutes on foot.”

The stadium, the village and the media center together will form a hub connecting inland facilities from the 1964 Games, which will be renovated for use, and with new bay-side sporting venues, he said. Most venues are 20 minutes or less from the village by public transit, the bid team said.

The overall cost of Tokyo’s bid was estimated in press reports last year at nearly $7 billion, but Nakamori said he was not familiar with that estimate, and estimates are being refined. But the national government has agreed to pay for up to half the venue construction costs.

Awaiting Chicago’s budget

Chicago, in contrast, is relying on Olympic-generated funds and private donations to finance its plan, though there will be public and private guarantees against operating losses. Chicago has not shared the budget for its lakefront-centric plan, but total costs are expected to be around $5 billion. A key difference is Chicago proposes a mostly temporary stadium in Washington Park, with a much smaller legacy amphitheater. The goal is to avoid construction of a white elephant.

And a host of other factors differentiate the cities, from the quality of transit systems to the levels of public support to the reputations of their city leaders.

“Their public transportation puts us to shame,” said Laura Hein, a Japanese history professor at Northwestern. The center of Tokyo has 47 rail and subway lines with 290 stations.

“They continue to fund public transit, even when they are having economic problems.”

Meanwhile, the CTA is warning of deep cuts and fare hikes unless it gets relief from Springfield. When asked about the bleak situation recently, Mayor Richard Daley noted the Olympics are nearly a decade away, and that the federal government historically has provided host cities with funding for transportation projects and security.

While ahead on transit, Tokyo has a longer row to hoe in building local enthusiasm for its bid. While the Olympic bid has been front and center in Chicago, enjoying a widespread level of support, that is not the case in Tokyo, some observers say.

“In general, while everyone is aware of the bid, 2016 is too far away for most people; they have more pressing issues to worry about,” said Chris Betros, editor of Japan Today, an online English-language newspaper.

Conversations with a few Tokyo residents who live or work near the waterfront uncovered mixed emotions, sometimes within a single individual.

“Personally, I don’t want to get caught with the traffic jams and congestion … [and] it will cost a huge amount of money,” said Reiko Shibuya, 29, who works at Kidzania, a family entertainment center at Lalaport Toyosu, an expansive shopping center built on a former shipyard.

Still, she said, “It will be good if many visitors come from abroad and see this country.”

The Tokyo bid team is doing a lot to gain support, Nakamori said, citing bid information booths at sporting events, placement of the city’s bid logo on buses and the appointment of Olympic swimming gold medalist Kosuke Kitajima as ambassador for the bid.

Daley’s strong image

Both cities are run by strong leaders mayors who are perceived as being able to make things happen, but Daley’s image may play better internationally, said a number of observers.

“Daley is beloved domestically but also respected internationally,” said DePaul’s Ibata-Arens. “It’s felt, even in Japan, that he’s a strong leader who doesn’t pull punches.”

Ishihara, a strident nationalist, is the Tokyo bid’s “biggest asset domestically, but its biggest liability internationally,” she said.

Japanese sports journalist and author Gentaro Taniguchi said Ishihara “is a racist who disdains Asian people, such as Chinese and Koreans. It is obvious that Ishihara’s ideology goes against the ideal of the Olympic charter.”

The Tokyo bid committee is aware of such criticisms but believes they are based on misunderstanding, Nakamori said, adding Ishihara last spring won re-election to a third term on a pro-Olympics platform, showing both he and the bid have strong public support.

And, he said, Tokyo’s new logo, featuring a Japanese knot, symbolizes the committee’s focus on harmony.

“The concept of the Japanese knot, it means connecting,” he said. “Not only connecting the Japanese people, but people from all over the world, and also Asians from all over the world.”

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City comparisons

Chicago and Tokyo share certain attributes, among them strong political leadership, a history of successful public-private partnerships and compact, waterfront-centered bids. But there are key differences:

PUBLIC TRANSIT

Tokyo boasts extensive, high-functioning system.

Chicago struggles to keep its aging system intact.

POLITICAL LEADERS

Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara: His strident nationalism could alienate.

Chicago Mayor Richard Daley: Seen as can-do leader internationally.

FUNDRAISING

Tokyo will get national government support.

Chicago will have to rely heavily on private donors.

NATIONAL IMAGE

Japan seen as ecological leader.

U.S. suffers due to war in Iraq.

LOCAL SUPPORT

Tokyo: Not yet on the radar in big way; mixed opinions.

Chicago: High-profile campaign; civic leaders on board.

TIMING

Tokyo at disadvantage because Asia got 2008 Games in Beijing.

Chicago gets edge as 2016 viewed as year for Americas; TV likes central time zone.

Source: baiduhai reporting

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Tokyo’s pitch

Like Chicago, Tokyo is proposing a compact plan in the heart of the city, with emphasis on the city’s waterfront. Key features:

– 100,000-seat waterfront stadium to be designed by renowned architect Tadao Ando

– Olympic Village, featuring five high-rises and housing 18,500, to be built on landfill island in Tokyo Bay

– Most venues within 6 miles of city center

– Most venues within 20 minutes of village, via public transit

– Restoration and reuse of many venues from 1964 Tokyo Olympics

– “Green” games, aiming for zero waste and new park development

– National government to pay up to half of venue construction costs