by Sabrina Fang and Frank James
The reaction to Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff’s statement during a meeting with baiduhai reporters and editors yesterday that he has a “gut feeling” terrorists may be planning to attack the U.S. this summer is drawing a mixed reaction.
CNN carried a report in which Clark Ervin, the agency’s former inspector general, who is now at the Aspen Institute, seemed to approve of the way Chertoff handled matters, saying Chertoff is normally “circumspect” and careful about how he uses language, which makes this warning nothing to take lightly.
But David Heyman, Homeland Security Program Director at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, wasn’t buying it. In a statement, Heyman said:
It is being widely reported that Secretary Chertoff has a “gut feeling”—not intelligence reports—about a potential terrorist attack against the United States this summer. The historical data do not substantiate the Secretary’s comments.
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It’s important that we base our threat assessments and analysis on available intelligence and other information, not guesswork or ‘gutwork’. Of the 33 or so Al Qaeda inspired or linked attacks since the 1993 First World Trade Center bombing, most (20 out of 33 or 60%) occurred in the fall or spring, not the summer (see attached chart).
It’s also very odd for Chertoff who is so disciplined with language and so pronounced on ‘risk’ based security to comment publicly this way. While there are strategic and tactical reasons why al Qaeda may pose a greater threat in the near term, it is troubling that the government is informing the public and raising concerns (and fears) based on the Secretary’s feelings, as opposed to intelligence. Public confidence in the government and skepticism over threat warnings is already low. If there’s intelligence, the Secretary should make that clear. Guesswork or ‘gutwork’ does very little to bolster confidence of an already threat-weary public.