by David Lightman
Is Rudy Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, redefining the way to win the Republican presidential nomination or is his untraditional approach, which finds him on the “wrong” side on conservative social values issues like abortion and gay rights going to catch up with him?
I explore this in my story today in the Hartford Courant. Here’s an important passage:
Political experts sense something seminal may be going on in the nation’s first primary state and, for that matter, around the country: Giuliani, who has had comfortable leads over other GOP contenders in six national polls taken in the past two weeks, could be redefining how to win his party’s presidential nomination.
He doesn’t make a beeline for the GOP hard core – the people who come out to vote in primaries and caucuses – with the usual array of anti-abortion talk, questioning of gay rights, devotion to faith-based initiatives and other social issues. Instead, his message is largely centered on a single theme: I’m strong and I’m competent.
If he succeeds, his strategy could change the way Republican campaigns are conducted.
Ronald Reagan’s presidency firmly established the modern GOP as a party of conservative values – firmly anti-abortion, tough on crime, willing to build up the military and cut taxes and eager to see religion play an important role in American life.
The party has been enormously successful running on those principles, which is why former U.S. Rep. Vin Weber, a top conservative activist from Minnesota, believes Giuliani cannot win the GOP nomination.
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“The party has been a coalition of national security, economic and social conservatives since 1980,” he said, “and Giuliani’s presenting a direct challenge to that coalition. I just don’t think you can take one leg off the stool and succeed.”
But veteran GOP pollster Ed Goeas, a Giuliani consultant, disagreed, saying Weber shows “a misunderstanding of social conservatives as one-issue voters.”
They still care about abortion and school prayer, he said, but terrorism has become a paramount issue, far more important than anything else to those and other voters. And that’s what Giuliani personifies and stresses, over and over.