by Frank James
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll says the Democratic controlled Congress scores lower than the President Bush in voter approval, with Congress coming in at 23 percent approval rating and the president at 29 percent. Download poll
Since the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, it’s actually possible the gap between the president and Congress;s approvals is wider or non-existent. For instance, Congress’s approval may be around 26 percent and so could the president’s.
But assuming Congress’s rating is indeed lower than the president’s, what could account for that?
One possibility is that the president has hit rock bottom with most voters except those within his political base. They would be the voters most likely to support his stance on Iraq, his insistence on finishing the job there before U.S. troops withdraw.
So by standing his ground on Iraq, he reinforces his position with that base though he has clearly lost some standing there as well because of his support for an immigration bill that many in his base refer to as an amnesty for illegal immigrants.
Congressional Democrats, on the other hand, have a base that’s totally opposed to the war. By having to fold their efforts, for lack of a veto-proof majority, to include timelines for military withdrawal in the Iraq spending bill, Democratic lawmakers weaken their support within their base.
A poll result that likely interacts with that 23 percent approval number for Democrats is that 54 percent of the respondents thought Iraq had gotten worse in the past three months.
The stronger that sentiment, the more pressure on the Democrats to do something about curtailing U.S. involvement. The more their inability to bring concrete changes on the war, the weaker their approva from votersl. Democrats are in an unforgiving cycle.
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The irony is that Iraq has shattered the public’s faith in both parties, the opposition party is not benefiting by being in opposition. While the war has brought Bush low, it is bringing congressional Democrats low as well.
Another result in the poll that should trouble Democrats is the anti-incumbent mood the survey picked up.
More respondents, 48 percent, said they thought a new candidate should be given a shot representing them than the 41 percent who favored the incumbent. Eleven percent were undecided.
For Democrats to have a real chance to turn this around would take a breakthrough in their ability to determine the course of U.S. Iraq policy. But that doesn’t appear to be in sight.
They can take some encouragement though from one poll result, the country seems to be tilting their way when all issues are taken together.
Nearly half of the respondents said the Democratic Party was more in line with their “values and positions” while 36 percent said that of Republicans. That gives Democrats something to work with