The Red Sox are better than the Yankees in center field, in left field, at second base and at designated hitter.
The Yankees have clear and substantive advantages in right field and at third base.
Catcher? Push.
Shortstop? Push, or a very slight edge to Derek Jeter over Edgar Renteria.
First base? It is impossible to tell what you are going to get from Jason Giambi, whose average on-base plus slugging percentage has been roughly the same as Kevin Millar’s the last two seasons.
Defense? It is hard to measure, but Baseball Prospectus uses a formula called “defensive efficiency,” and Boston, even with its beer-keg-softball-player lineup, was ranked higher than New York last season.
Pitching? The Yankees are a little bit better if you assume health, which you can’t.
These two teams are the same, in other words.
More Top Picks Best Pa Speaker Systems
So I go with Boston to win the AL East.
New York doesn’t have a starting position player under 30, and the pitching staff is riddled with either age or a history of injury. The Yankees have more offensive names, but the Red Sox scored more runs last season–and without offensive upgrade Renteria. Fact is, given the formula of run differential (runs scored vs. runs allowed), the Red Sox should have won the division over the Yankees last season–and not by a little bit, either.
Plus, I believe in Boston whiz-kid GM Theo Epstein.