Just moments after his fellow cardinals elected him pontiff in 1978, Pope John Paul II took a moment to marvel at the unexpected turn of events with a key supporter, Cardinal Franz Koenig of Vienna.
“How did it happen?” the new pope asked Koenig, in a story retold by the late biographer Jonathan Kwitney.
“Holy Father,” replied a teasing Koenig, “we’re bound by secrecy.”
Indeed, if it is difficult for the participants to pinpoint how a cardinal is selected as the successor to St. Peter, it is virtually impossible for outsiders to trace the web of personalities, nationalities, theologies, politics–and, believers say, the Holy Spirit–at work in the private machinations of a papal conclave.
Handicapping it is still more precarious, as attested to by Vatican observers, who were almost universally blindsided by the 1978 election of Karol Wojtyla.
A decade of intermittent speculation about Wojtyla’s successor has shown that every good argument for one kind of candidate can be countered with an equally plausible rationale in the opposite direction.
For instance, one bit of common wisdom insists that cardinals will seek balance by choosing a man very different from his predecessor.
By that reasoning, because John Paul II was a dominant pope who led by the power of his charisma and intellect, the preferred successor would keep a lower profile, perhaps a man whose strengths lie in administration and organization.
And because John Paul II served for a long period, more than 26 years, his successor would be an older man likely to have a shorter pontificate.
But one also could look at the College of Cardinals and reasonably conclude that because 114 of the 117 who are under age 80–and thus eligible to vote for the next pope–were chosen by John Paul II, they would by nature gravitate to his style of strong, charismatic leadership.
A few things can safely be said about the next papal conclave.
Although any Catholic man is eligible to be pope (a layman would have to be ordained a priest and consecrated as a bishop immediately after election), the next pope will come from the College of Cardinals–more specifically, from the 117 cardinals younger than 80. And if the best known cardinals do not emerge as candidates, they often wield considerable power in the conclave, promoting candidates or moving large voting blocs.
Finally, the next pope will not be American. Though the United States boasts 11 cardinal electors, the nation’s superpower status and all its attendant baggage effectively disqualify them from leadership of a worldwide church.
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In fact, nationality has become one of the key qualifications considered by cardinals.
Some Italian partisans argue that after the “Polish experiment,” it is time to return to the tradition of the previous four centuries in which the bishop of Rome came from Italy.
Italian candidates
They might choose Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi, 71, the roly-poly archbishop of Milan, a rising star who has been installed as the 5-2 favorite by Irish bookmakers. A conservative on doctrine, the television-friendly prelate has demonstrated a knack for not making enemies.
His chief rival among the Italians might be Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, 71, head of the influential Congregation for Bishops. A creature of the Roman Curia, Re served as Pope John Paul II’s chief of staff for 11 years. Other Italians whose chances have waxed and waned over the years, but who still are sometimes mentioned among the papabile, the Italian word for potential popes, are Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini, 78, the elegant and erudite retired archbishop of Milan who is much admired by Catholic liberals; Cardinal Camillo Ruini, 74, the pope’s vicar general for the Diocese of Rome; Cardinal Angelo Sodano, 77, the Vatican’s secretary of state; and Cardinal Giacomo Biffi, 76, the outspoken former archbishop of Bologna.
The 20 Italian cardinals make up the largest national voting bloc, but the vast majority of cardinals who come from other countries is likely to consider candidates whose nationality might bring new energy to the papacy and a greater sense of the global nature of the church.
With the number of Catholics in Africa doubling over the last two decades to 100 million, the most commonly mentioned name on every list of papabile is that of Cardinal Francis Arinze, the personable prelate from Nigeria with a flair for evangelization. Arinze, 72, has allies all over the world, as well as experience in his homeland and the Vatican.
Perhaps more likely would be a Latin American. Among the 21 cardinals from Central and South America, the rising star is Cardinal Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga, archbishop of Tegucigalpa, Honduras.
A dashing figure who speaks many languages, plays musical instruments and reportedly has a pilot’s license, Rodriguez has many of the attributes that attracted the electors to a young Polish cardinal more than a quarter-century ago. Rodriguez is outspoken on social justice and conservative on theology, but at age 62 might be considered a bit young this time.
From the Catholic capital of the Americas, Mexico City, another choice could be Cardinal Norberto Rivera. Also young for the call at 62, Rivera nonetheless has given vigor to the world’s largest diocese.
Cardinal Dario Castrillon Hoyos, 75, is frequently mentioned as a possible successor. As a bishop in Colombia, he showed courage in confronting drug barons. He heads the Vatican office that deals with the worldwide clergy.
Other Latin American possibilities include Cardinal Claudio Hummes, 70, the archbishop of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and Cardinal Jaime Lucas Ortega y Alamino, 68, the archbishop of Havana whose quiet opposition to the Castro regime has earned him points in the Vatican.
A nod to Asia might bring in the popular and once politically active Cardinal Jaime Sin, 76, the retired archbishop of Manila, who has joked that his surname alone disqualifies him.
Closer to the Vatican, Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn of Vienna has earned consideration by editing the church’s catechism and by finessing the departure of another Austrian prelate accused of sexual offenses. Aristocratic–he is a count–and articulate, Schoenborn, however, is just 60.
Cardinal Godfried Danneels, 71, the archbishop of Brussels, is more moderate than most members of the College of Cardinals, and he has suggested it would be better for future popes to retire rather than die in office. Another European moderate who has impressed his colleagues is Cardinal Walter Kasper, 72 a German who heads the Vatican’s office of Christian unity and its office for relations with Jews.
From Eastern Europe, the name that is frequently mentioned is Cardinal Miloslav Vlk, 72, the archbishop of Prague. As a priest under one of the most repressive Iron Curtain regimes, he spent years as a window washer. A charming long shot is Cardinal Lubomyr Husar, head of the Eastern rite Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church. Husar, 72, fled Ukraine as a child and lived for many years in the U.S., studying at Catholic University and Fordham. He holds a U.S. passport, a technicality the electors might forgive.
Whatever infinitesimal chance an American cardinal might have had was snuffed out by the pedophilia scandal in the U.S. church. But a man who would be considered papabile were it not for the fatal fact that he is American is Chicago’s Cardinal Francis George, 68. This could translate into influence in choosing the next pope and, some have speculated, a powerful position for George in the next Vatican administration.
Though outside observers often try to rate potential successors on an ideological scale, there is little doctrinal variation to distinguish most of the commonly discussed papabile.
Liberal Catholics hoping that a new pope might take a fresh look at church teaching on birth control, the role of women and priestly celibacy will likely be disappointed.
Conservatives dominate
Virtually all of the Italian and Latin American candidates have solid conservative credentials, while others like Schoenborn, Danneels and Vlk are seen as just slightly more moderate. The only true liberal and potential reformer is Martini, but he is a long shot.
Other names that topped earlier lists seem less likely as the years go by. Cardinal Jean-Marie Lustiger, 78, a Jew of Polish descent who became archbishop of Paris and a widely respected thinker, has been battling cancer and recently retired.
A key role at the next conclave will be played by the so-called kingmakers–cardinals who may not be papabile themselves but who can wield considerable influence over the choice of fellow electors. In the last conclave, the Austrian Koenig played a decisive role in orchestrating support for Wojtyla.
This time the kingmaker might be Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, 77, widely regarded as John Paul II’s right-hand man. As the iron-fisted enforcer of church doctrine, he probably is too divisive a figure to be in the running, but his blessing could be decisive.
Another power-behind-the-scenes is Re. If his candidacy falters, he could rally critical support around another choice.
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POSSIBLE SUCCESSORS
EUROPE
Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi
Italy
Position: Archbishop of Milan
Age: 71
Cardinal since: 1998
Doctrinal conservative is considered the favorite.
Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re
Italy
Position: Head of the Congregation for Bishops
Age: 71
Cardinal since: 2001
Served as Pope John Paul II’s chief of staff.
Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn
Austria
Position: Archbishopof Vienna
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Age: 60
Cardinal since: 1998
May be too young for cardinals opposed to along pontificate.
Cardinal Miloslav Vlk
Czech Republic
Position: Archbishop of Prague
Age: 72
Cardinal since: 1994
Led church in nation emerging from communist rule.
AFRICA
Cardinal Francis Arinze
Nigeria
Age: 72
Cardinal since: 1985
Leader among Africa’sfast-growing Catholic population.
LATIN AMERICA
Cardinal Oscar Andrs Rodrguez Maradiaga
Honduras
Position: Archbishop of Tegucigalpa
Age: 62
Cardinal since: 2001
Charismatic figure alsomay be too young.
Cardinal Norberto Rivera
Mexico
Position: Archbishop of Mexico City
Age: 62
Cardinal since: 1998
Conservative critical of Mexico’s ruling elite; also may be too young.
Cardinal Doro Castrilln Hoyos
Colombia
Position: Heads Vatican office dealing with worldwide clergy
Age: 75
Cardinal since: 1998
Confronted Colombia’s drug lords.