Personal technology will take small but significant steps forward this year, perhaps the best that can be expected after the many disasters of 2001. Here’s what we predict will be some of the most important developments in 2002.
Online music
After plucking a few tentative notes in 2001, the major record labels will start playing the online music game in earnest.
And while it’s too early to predict the success of the new label-backed services, MusicNet and Pressplay, we can safely say one thing: They’re bound to change dramatically, as the services seek a way to convert digital music freeloaders to paying customers.
“Everyone’s committed to this as a significant part of the music industry’s future,” said Erik Flannigan, vice president of music services at RealNetworks, a partner in the MusicNet venture. “But it really is still molten, I would say. What remains to be seen is how many layers of rock will this mountain build.”
Expect the major labels to license their music catalogs to rival services. Right now, Warner Music Group and BMG Entertainment offer their music through their MusicNet venture with RealNetworks; while Sony Music Entertainment and Universal Music Group offer their catalog through Pressplay. EMI Recorded Music is the only label, among the big five, to license to both services.
That means subscribers have to settle for half a loaf–Christina Aguilera but not Jennifer Lopez. The labels will certainly have to cross-license if paid music services are to compete with underground sites like Morpheus or iMesh, where consumers can access the entire universe of music–all at no charge.
Industry insiders predict German media giant Bertelsmann AG will be the next to cross-license its catalog.
Independent online music services, such as Chicago-based FullAudio and Listen.com, should also benefit from more liberal licensing of songs by the major labels, which face an ongoing U.S. Justice Department inquiry into their practices.
Smart phones
For several years now, analysts have wondered whether everyday people will one day carry both a cell phone and a hand-held computer. We’ll begin to see an answer in 2002, and the answer will be a resounding “No.”
Most people need only a cell phone that can act like a hand-held computer, and will not want to carry both. Thanks to Samsung, Kyocera, and most recently Handspring with its coming Treo phone, we’re beginning to see a day when phones can make voice calls, complete hand-held computer functions, and still clip on a user’s belt.
These “smart phones” are a relatively new concept, but a number of companies are working on them. Microsoft has teamed with Sendo and other cell phone manufacturers to develop a phone/computer hybrid code-named “Stinger” that uses the Windows CE operating system.
Symbian, an operating system company backed by cell phone-maker Nokia and others, has already begun putting smart phones onto the market. And then there is the Palm camp, which has the offerings from Kyocera, Samsung and Handspring.
In the early days of 2002, all eyes in the hand-held computer business will be on Handspring’s Treo, the first smart phone to combine full hand-held computer and cell phone functions in a product small enough to fit in one’s pocket.
Sony, which has yet to commit to making smart phones, will be watching the Treo, trying to decide whether its Sony/Ericsson unit will build phones around the Symbian operating system, the Palm operating system, or both.
DVD recording
If you unwrapped a digital camcorder over this holiday season, you probably spent some time shooting footage of the kids, the grandparents and other loved ones.
Now, what do you do with all of that footage? Make a DVD, of course.
DVD burners are hardly everyday computer peripherals. Still, that hasn’t stopped softwaremakers from developing programs that promise to make DVD burning as easy as 1-2-3.
By far, Apple Computer–which released its iDVD 2 for the Mac OS X last year–leads the pack when it comes to making digital home movies.
For PC users, the process is still clunky, at best. But it’s getting better.
“I think it will be moving slowly into the mainstream over the next year,” said Wolfgang Schlichting, an analyst with the research firm IDC. He said IDC expects 3.5 million DVD burners to be sold this year, compared with 1.3 million in 2001.
It will take some time before DVD burners go mass market–at least five years, said Schlichting. But already, makers of DVD-burning software are competing to be packaged with the stand-alone burners and those bundled with high-end PCs.
Telecom deals
It was the promise of the merger-crazy millennium: Mega-companies like AOL Time Warner will begin offering home long-distance, Internet, cell phone, cable and other services together in one money-saving package.
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For the most part, those big packages have not materialized.
But wait. There’s hope. In November, Sprint began sending mailings to Sprint PCS cell phone customers, offering them deals on home long-distance as long as they remained with Sprint PCS. It was one of the few good package deals to materialize in quite a while.
The economy is slow and communications companies are struggling to pitch new wireless services to a skeptical audience. What better way to get people hooked than to offer them a deal? Along with Sprint, AT&T, AOL Time Warner and Verizon are in particularly good positions to begin offering package deals on subscription services and publications.
Expect to see more of them by midyear.
Wireless data
High-speed wireless services such as 2.5 and 3G have been a long time coming, but the first of them are finally here. And they don’t make it.
The problem is not the technology, but the pricing. Take, for instance, Cingular’s “Wireless Internet Express” service. Cingular charges by the kilobyte for fast wireless access. That’s like charging by the kernel for movie popcorn, or by the word for phone conversations. Who wants to count kilobytes when they’re surfing the Web?
Most likely, carriers were looking for a way to launch these services, yet discourage people from staying logged on all the time and thus hogging bandwidth. Instead, they will end up discouraging people from adopting these new services at all.
Rather than charge by the kilobyte, carriers should have offered prepaid options, or package deals that combined data service with unlimited talk time.
Online video gaming
This will be the year game consoles make the leap from the living room onto the Internet.
Whether gamers will follow in large numbers remains to be seen.
Microsoft, which made its bold foray into the console market in November with Xbox, has equally ambitious plans to bring online gaming to the living room by the end of 2002. It has touted Xbox as the ultimate online machine, with its built-in Ethernet port, hard drive and high-speed digital interface.
And the coming generation of Xbox games–especially sports titles and first-person shooters–will offer the option of playing against online opponents.
“We’ve put a huge investment into online console gaming,” said Bridgitt Arnold, Xbox product manager. “We obviously feel very bullish about its future. One of the things we did from the beginning is we bet on broadband.”
Of course, promising online gaming is easier than actually delivering it, as market leader Sony Computer Entertainment can attest.
Sony laid out elaborate plans last spring to bring Internet capabilities to its best-selling console, the PlayStation 2. It announced a host of new accessories, such as an add-on modem/Ethernet adapter and hard drive, along with a series of powerhouse partnerships that included Internet giants America Online and RealNetworks. But none of these products or online services has yet reached the United States.
The hardest task may be convincing consumers that online play is worth paying for. It’s something pioneering consolemaker Sega failed to accomplish with SegaNet, which offered Internet game play via the Dreamcast’s dial-up modem. Some 250,000 gamers experimented with online play–and only a fraction of those subscribed.
Connected schools
In a few of the more cutting-edge school districts, the paper grade book and attendance sheet has given way to the online grade book during the past few years.
There are several advantages. Schools can compile and analyze attendance data faster, so they can tell which students are cutting class and which ones are truly absent. Teachers can more easily spot overall trends in performance and reconcile grades more quickly at the end of term.
In some instances, parents can get online and see an up-to-date picture of a child’s progress.
This might be a chilling thought to grown-ups, who remember how they fibbed about classroom assignments and hid midterm report cards. For some of today’s students, the day has come when such clandestine operations are hopeless: Parents can find the truth as easily as they check e-mail or make a phone call.
Why will 2002 be an important year for this trend toward online school records? In early 2001, with little fanfare, Apple Computer bought PowerSchool, a leading provider of Web-based student information systems for school districts.
It seems likely that Apple will want a revamped PowerSchool to be ready for the beginning of the 2002-2003 school year, and PowerSchool’s competitors will be forced to respond.
E-bills
Getting your bills in the curbside mailbox is so 20th Century. The number of companies offering electronic bills has skyrocketed over the past year, and we think that list will grow exponentially in 2002.
Finally, credit card companies, mortgage bankers and utilities have figured out that people are spending a lot of time handling their personal finances over the Internet–whether it’s balancing the checkbook or tracking their stocks. It only makes sense for people to receive and pay their bills online.
Head over to Yahoo’s Bill Pay site (finance.yahoo.com/bph) and check out the number of companies offering electronic bills these days. It’s no longer just the big credit card companies–the Citibanks and the Bank of Americas–that are offering e-bills. Others, which have huge customer-billing operations–Sprint PCS, Pacific Bell, Chevron and Sears, to name a few–are now offering e-bills to their customers.
Of course, the companies stand to save millions of dollars if they can cut out paper, printing and postage costs that come with traditional paper bills. Now, if we could only get them to pass on the savings.
Wireless home networks
The technology behind wireless home networks–notably Wi-Fi, also known as wireless Ethernet or IEEE 802.11b–is ready for the masses and the masses are ready for it.
Already, a growing number of homes have multiple computers and high-speed Internet connections. Wireless networking allows a teenager in an upstairs bedroom to send a term paper to the laser printer in Dad’s office. It also allows those PCs to share the same Internet connection–Mom can surf the Web on her laptop from the back patio, while Dad surfs from the desktop in the home office.
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The potential for a big push into the mainstream is great for 2002–but the product manufacturers will first need to deliver on a promise to make those products more user-friendly.
The prices on the products aren’t too bad–and they’re only getting better. If you’re ready to share Internet connections, printers and files among the PCs in your home, go wireless. Once you get past the hair-pulling setup process, you’ll be happy with the end result.