The field of Republican hopefuls for the 2000 presidential election is getting crowded, despite prospects that they will have to spend more than $50 million apiece in the primary campaign alone, a conservative political consultant said Thursday.
“It could be the most wild, uproarious presidential cycle we’ve ever seen in terms of the amount of money spent,” said Ralph Reed, former executive director and political strategist of the Christian Coalition and now president of his political consulting firm.
At a breakfast with reporters, Reed managed only one bite of sausage as he laid out possible scenarios for the 2000 campaign. The New Hampshire primary stands two years and two months away, but Reed’s breakfast-table banter is already sought by those with a stake in the race.
The hardball strategist with the cherubic face helped lay the groundwork for the 1994 Republican takeover of Congress.
Although he left televangelist Pat Robertson’s Christian Coalition this year, Reed is still considered a bellwether for the organized bloc of evangelical voters who can swing Republican primaries in several states.
For Reed, the breakfast was also a coming out of sorts, an advertisement for his six-person consulting firm that has been hired to advise candidates in 11 statewide and congressional campaigns in 1998.
Reed has not yet latched onto any presidential aspirant, but in recent weeks, he has been seen in Phoenix chatting with former Vice President Dan Quayle, in Washington with former Transportation Secretary Elizabeth Dole and in Texas with Gov. George W. Bush.
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None of them has yet declared, but Bush, the eldest son of former President George Bush, has amassed a $13 million war chest for his just-launched gubernatorial re-election campaign.
That is probably a bit more than he needs. The governor has no Republican opposition and is a heavy favorite in the polls over Democratic challenger Garry Mauro.
Quayle, who has gathered about $20 million, “is running for president,” not thinking about it, Reed said.
Millionaire publisher Steve Forbes can be expected to spend $37 million of his fortune in the 2000 race and match it with another $37 million from supporters, Reed said. Forbes’ massive spending on televised attack ads rattled the field during the 1996 primaries, and if he raises $74 million this time, “all bets are off,” Reed said.
The other candidates will have to raise a total of $52 million each by the end of the primaries, Reed predicted. That is 40 percent more than the $37 million spent by candidates who took federal matching funds in the 1996 primaries.
In Reed’s view, the Democrats won’t be wounded by the campaign-finance controversy. “It hasn’t got legs politically,” he said. Vice President Al Gore could face several challengers, including House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt of Missouri, Reed said.
Gore can count on a solid base of at least 44 percent of the national vote, he said. “It would be a mistake to underestimate him.”
Reed ticked through his list of serious, second-tier Republican candidates: Ohio Rep. John Kasich, Missouri Sen. John Ashcroft, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Jack Kemp, Arizona Sen. John McCain, former Richard Nixon speechwriter Pat Buchanan and conservative activist Gary Bauer.
Reed has even had presidential campaign conversations with House leader Newt Gingrich, although only “in passing.”
“The most important thing Newt did this year,” Reed said, “is lose weight.”