MOSELEY-BRAUN LOSES POWER BASE

U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun, the Illinois Democrat who was swept into office in 1992 in what her party labeled “the year of the woman,” is in danger of being abandoned by the suburban female voters who helped elect her.

In a statewide Tribune Poll with 16 months remaining before the 1998 general elections, Moseley-Braun’s popularity ranks behind Gov. Jim Edgar and two other Republican state officials who are said to be considering a run against her.

Almost half of Illinois voters want to elect someone new, according to the poll results, while only a third would like to see Moseley-Braun elected to a second term.

Significantly, her high negative ratings are directly tied to character issues, including the perception by 48 percent of voters that she has not been honest.

There are a few bright spots for the incumbent, however. Forty percent of Illinois voters consider themselves to be Democrats, a high figure in recent history, compared with 28 percent who consider themselves Republicans. And despite the negative ratings, 55 percent of voters think she looks out for the interests of the state, and 51 percent believe she cares about people like themselves.

Though the poll also shows she has improved her ratings somewhat since a survey last October, it is clear that she is in trouble: She has an overall favorable rating of 37 percent, compared with an unfavorable rating of 40 percent, a ratio not relished by incumbents on the eve of a re-election campaign.

Among voters ages 35 to 65 and over–the group that votes most–her negative ratings drift even higher, from 41 percent to 47 percent unfavorable among senior citizens, another key voting bloc.

And among suburban white women, her favorable rating is at 31 percent, compared with an unfavorable rating of 47 percent–a figure that has remained fairly steady since 1994, after she had been embroiled in a series of controversies.

The current Tribune Poll, conducted by Market Shares Corporation of Mt. Prospect, showed Edgar with a favorable rating of 64 percent, Secretary of State George Ryan with a 54 percent favorable rating and Illinois Atty. Gen. James Ryan with 49 percent.

Edgar scored highest of the four politicians among suburban women, 76 percent favorable, while 48 percent of African-Americans, a critical Democratic constituency, view him favorably.

Edgar is considering a Senate campaign, a re-election bid for governor or retirement from politics, a decision that has kept the plans of other politicians on hold.

Moseley-Braun’s serious character problems among voters are rooted in her successful 1992 campaign.

In the Democratic primary win against two white males and her victory over a nominal Republican challenger in the general election, Moseley-Braun and her supporters claimed she would bring a higher standard of integrity to public office.

She became a major part of “the year of the woman” effort by Democrats, which was aimed in part at helping then-presidential candidate Bill Clinton gain support from Republican suburban women.

But once in office, Moseley-Braun ran into trouble fulfilling the high expectations that had been set by her campaign.

The list of controversies include whether she used clout to help her mother move into a retirement home at state taxpayers’ expense; a visit with Nigeria’s notorious dictator, Gen. Sani Abacha; investigations of her campaign finances and whether she used those funds for personal matters; her friendship with political adviser Kgosie Matthews; and lawsuits by her former campaign treasurer.

The poll results indicate that those issues, and the way she handled them, led a significant number of Illinois voters to perceive her to have serious character flaws.

Betty Rockwell, 70, an account supervisor and self-described moderate Democrat from Streamwood, is representative of many of those voters.

“Why did I vote for her? Basically, I’m a Democrat, and second of all, she’s a woman, and I figured let’s give her a chance,” Rockwell said in a telephone interview after the poll was conducted. “Then all that flak about the campaign money and the Medicaid money and the trip to Africa came out, and that was it for me.

“Now I hear that she’s been cleared of a lot of that stuff, but it’s too late for me. She lost my vote a long time ago. I really don’t like Gov. Edgar. . . . But I think he’s honest, and if he ran against (Moseley-Braun), I’d vote for him.”

The series of negative controversies are the potential fuel for a string of political attack ads and campaign charges.

But a tactic that Moseley-Braun and her supporters have relied upon in the past–suggesting she is criticized because she is a black woman–are now clearly frowned upon by most voters.

Across the state, 61 percent of voters say they do not think her problems are related to her race or gender, while 28 percent think they are related.

And among white suburban women, 75 percent of them disagree that she has been a victim of anti-black or anti-feminist thinking.

White suburban women are considered a key constituency for Moseley-Braun, the state’s first African-American senator, since she captured 58 percent of the suburban vote in her election.

But in the survey, most suburban women are now dissatisfied with her. For the past several months, political operatives have suggested as much, but now there are numbers to back the anecdotal information.

Most incumbents seeking re-election like to have a favorable/unfavorable ratio of at least 2-1. But Moseley-Braun ratio is about 1-1, the kind of numbers that could invite a serious challenge.

Former state Comptroller Michael Bakalis is now the only Democrat publicly trying to drum up support for a primary challenge. But Moseley-Braun’s negative ratings could persuade others with national political ambitions to run.

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The poll also included questions on job approval. Only 38 percent approved of Moseley-Braun’s performance, and 37 percent disapproved. This is another measure falling short of the 50 percent approval incumbents hope for as they enter a campaign and is well short of other incumbents tested in the poll.

Voters were asked why they approved or disapproved of the job Moseley-Braun is doing. Their answers underscore the damage the controversies have taken on her.

Much of the response involved negative perceptions of her character and general doubts about her truthfulness in answering questions on those matters.

Janet Stoodley, 38, of Des Plaines is among those saying she would have reservations about supporting Moseley-Braun again.

“I had high hopes for her,” Stoodley said. “I guess because she’s black and she’s a woman, I wanted to give her a chance. I was very hopeful. I haven’t seen her doing a lot for women or for suburban people, so I’m not so sure I’d go for her again, not to mention her ethical problems. Maybe she’s done things for voters in the suburbs, but I don’t know about them and that’s a failing on her part.”

But while Moseley-Braun has obvious problems, she also has time to fix them, especially if she’s challenged by a Republican conservative whose policies could drive female voters back her way.

For example, state Sen. Peter Fitzgerald (R-Inverness) has already declared his intentions to run for the seat.

But should Fitzgerald, a conservative, face Moseley-Braun in 1998, he will likely be pilloried by attack ads showing he supported a measure to allow Illinois residents to carry concealed firearms.

Although Fitzgerald’s support of the measure was conditional on 50 hours of police firearms training, the poll showed 74 percent of voters oppose such an idea, with 21 percent in support and 5 percent undecided.

And because 76 percent of women oppose the idea, Moseley-Braun could use the gun issue to try to recapture female voters now wavering in their support.

Those who approve of the job she is doing concentrated less on her personal traits and more on her duties as a U.S. senator. Most of these respondents said they believed she was trying her best to do a good job.

Dolores Brennan, 70, of Oak Park is one of them. She considers herself an independent who voted for Moseley-Braun and would do so again.

“I think she’s refreshing,” Brennan said. “I think somebody new was needed. Her ethics? I was certainly interested in the reports about her, but you can’t trust everything you read and hear. . . . I voted for her, partly, because she’s a woman. And also, I agree with her politically most of the time.”

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The findings of the Tribune Poll are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 711 Illinois voters who had voted in recent elections.

For samples of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that results will differ by no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from results that would be obtained if all registered votes in the state were questioned. The margin of potential error for subgroups within the larger sample is greater.

Market Shares Corp. of Mt. Prospect conducted the poll on June 10-15.