Twice in recent months I have offered the observation the players won’t strike again until the year 2020. That number, grabbed out of a hat, emphasizes if accord isn’t reached on a new Basic Agreement there’s no reason for fans to be concerned about a another shutdown.
Still, the belief persists another stoppage is likely because (a) the players will strike again or (b) the owners will lock them out.
Trust this. Neither will happen.
The owners, much more so than the players, are content to ride the horse they came in on. They won’t settle until the Players Association agrees to major concessions. The owners’ executive council, eight of the power brokers and the two league presidents, assemble here Thursday.
“Nothing critical,” reported chairman Bud Selig. “We like to meet from time to time.”
Anything new on the labor negotiations?
“We gave the union a proposal almost two weeks ago. We’re waiting for a response.”
Much has been written about how both sides have lost a ton, but these accounts have been general in nature. To explain better, especially from a player’s view, look at the case of White Sox catcher Ron Karkovice.
In 1993, Karkovice had a base salary of $975,000 plus incentive bonuses: $100,000 if he caught 100 games, an additional $125,000 for 110 games, another $150,000 for 120 games and another $175,000 for 125 games. He made all these incentives–$550,000–to lift his total compensation to $1,525,000.
His base pay was raised to $1,525,000 for ’94 with the same bonus clauses. But because of the 52-day player strike he was unable to make any of the incentives, a loss of $550,000. In addition he was docked 29 percent of his salary for days lost during the strike. His total loss then was $992,250.
Last season when the schedule was trimmed to 144 games–he lost another 11.1 percent of his salary, or $167,750. Because of the shortened season he earned $344,448 in incentives, $205,552 less than in 1993. Total 1995 loss: $373,302.
The two-year loss: $1,365,520.
Karkovice’s 1996 contract, which he recently signed, calls for the same base pay of $1,525,000. More than likely, if there had not been a strike, by this time his base would have escalated to more than $2 million. Plus the previous bonus provisions.
Karko is a stand-up fellow, but I have no idea whether he believes the stoppage was worth it. Somehow I doubt it.
Hundreds of established players–not the superstars but front-liners such as Karkovice–have had similar experiences. There is nothing unusual about his situation.
“He is not a Lone Ranger,” said Tom Selakovich of St. Charles, a long-time player agent.
If the current negotiations continue in stalemate, would union chief Don Fehr be eager to call for a strike vote?
Only Fehr can answer that question. But realists don’t think he would be too eager. There are too many Karkovices out there.
The last time the players voted, in early summer of 1994, they were gung-ho for a stoppage. I never have seen the precise tally but going on past performances, they probably endorsed the strike by a 90 percent majority. The voting was done two months before the actual shutdown. It was, essentially, a show of solidarity.
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At that time, several White Sox players were reminded that once a strike vote is taken there wouldn’t be a second vote. The union leaders then take full command and prepare for a fight to the finish. The response from the players was universal: The owners will throw in the towel; they always collapse.
Pitcher Kevin Brown, then with the Texas Rangers, said he hoped the owners would lose their shirt and doubtless many of the players concurred. They were correct. The owners lost at least twice as much as the players.
But what the players failed to consider is their losses would pyramid. Sooner or later the owners, being owners, would recoup what they had lost. Last spring, when the season was about to begin, more than two dozen free agents were stranded in Homestead, Fla. in what, in effect, was a baseball refugee camp. They were working out independently, waiting for a new connection.
Many of them eventually signed, but for far less than their previous wage. Catcher Pat Borders, a one-time World Series hero with the Toronto Blue Jays, signed for $250,000, 10 percent his previous pay. Most of the others limped back to work at a 50 percent cut.
The total player payroll declined by 5 percent last year, not a dramatic reduction. Of more significance, the mean salary fell 50 percent, from $450,000 to $225,000.
And so when the owners meet Thursday it can be expected they will dip their cigars in brandy and one or two may ask, “I wonder what that fellow Don Fehr is up to?”
The answer is simple: He’s trying to keep the troops together.