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player ready...TAMPA, Fla. — Hurricane Isaias, on a path to become the first Atlantic hurricane to strike the U.S. this year, muscled up to major hurricane strength Friday morning as it churned closer to the Florida Panhandle, according to the National Hurricane Center.
As of 11 a.m. Friday, Isaias was about 195 miles south of Pensacola and had sustained winds topping out at 120 mph, making it a Category 3 storm, forecasters said in an update.
Isaias is likely to remain a dangerous hurricane at landfall Friday night, and forecasters warned that people living between Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and the Bay and Gulf County line in Florida should rush to complete storm preparations as the hurricane moves north-northeast at about 16 mph.
The Tampa Bay area, hundreds of miles from the projected landfall zone but still on edge after 2024’s back-to-back hurricanes, will see some of Isaias’ impacts, including choppier seas, flooding in low-lying streets and heavy rain through the weekend, local meteorologists said.
On Thursday night, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis expanded a state of emergency to include 27 counties as forecasters projected the storm could bring up to 9 feet of surge at the Alabama and Florida border. A storm surge warning, issued when there is danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water, is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River in Florida.
At a Friday morning news conference in Pensacola, DeSantis warned that Isaias could still hit the state as a Category 3 storm, which ranges on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale between 111- and 129-mph sustained winds.
Areas from Pensacola through the Big Bend region could see storm surge, DeSantis said. Inland areas are also likely to see flooding.
DeSantis also warned about the likelihood of tornadoes, which could happen beyond the Pensacola area. Floridians in the Panhandle should still be on guard if Isaias makes landfall in Alabama, rather than Florida, DeSantis said.
If that happens, it could mean more storm surge on the east side of the hurricane, bringing even more water into Florida.
“You could have a storm coming to Pensacola, the eyewall, and you could have tornadoes hundreds of miles away as a result of this storm,” DeSantis said.
“So nobody is going to be in the clear for this, even if you’re a couple hundred miles away.
“It’s a pretty big, lopsided, ugly system,” DeSantis said.
Isaias was expected to take a northward turn later Friday and make its final approach toward the U.S. northern Gulf Coast in the afternoon, forecasters said.
Meteorologists have predicted for days that strong wind shear near the northern Gulf coast would help weaken the storm before landfall, but they noted Friday that time is of the essence:
“This is a tenuous spot because it would only take about a 6-(hour) delay in the onset of the shear to bring a stronger hurricane than expected onshore,” forecasters wrote in a 5 a.m. update.
Even though the storm is gearing up to make landfall hundreds of miles away from the Tampa Bay area, the region is still likely to feel the “peripheral impact” of Isaias Friday and into the weekend, according to Rick Davis, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Tampa.
What does that look like here? Expect choppier, wavier seas; low-lying streets that are prone to flooding could be flooded again; and heavy rainfall can be expected through the weekend, Davis said.
The risk of rip currents along Pinellas beaches remains high into Sunday, Davis said, and conditions could be dangerous for anglers or boaters.
“If you’re a mariner, keep your boats in the port today as seas and swells begin to move ashore,” Davis said Friday morning.
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A storm surge and higher-than-normal tides could be influenced by the strong pull of a new moon, with surge forecast between 1 to 3 feet in the Tampa Bay area, Davis said. That likely doesn’t mean flooding will enter into homes, he said, but it could mean water in low-lying streets.
As for rainfall, the region had seen up to 4 inches since Tuesday, with up to 3 more inches expected through the weekend, Davis said. Already over-saturated soil could see even more water, making flooding worse.