MILWAUKEE — Michael Busch tends not to dig too much into numbers.
The Chicago Cubs’ first baseman does have a few metrics he checks in on over the course of the season, mainly focusing on his chase rate, strikeout percentage, walk rate and slugging production. Busch’s performance in those first three areas has been similar to last year’s performance, with a slight uptick in chase and a career-best 12.6% walk rate.
The 28-year-old’s power, though, hasn’t been at the same level as a year ago when he slugged a team-high 34 home runs. Busch has gone deep 18 times this season and owns a .390 slugging percentage, his lowest in three seasons with the Cubs. He believes he did a better job with pull-side power last season, whereas this year he’s getting a little too deep on the ball through the zone. Busch’s Pull Air%, a measure of non-groundballs hit to the pull side, is down nearly 5% from 2025.
“Even some of the outs, which, in my opinion, just really diving into hard outs and trusting that over time those will start to fall and you start to see some production through that, I think that’s what I’ve been happy about,” Busch told the Tribune on Wednesday. “So, I think as of late, just starting to feel better, starting to be more on time, starting to take better swings in the zone.”
Teams have made adjustments against Busch too.
After clobbering changeups in 2024, Busch has struggled against that pitch type, and it’s had a trickle-down effect on his success versus other pitches. He posted 7 Run Value, a measure of run expectancy, off changeups last year. But it’s become something pitchers can use to exploit Busch, who owns a -5 Run Value in 2026 against changeups; it’s his only negative Run Value versus a pitch type.
“He really damaged changeups last year and I think a lot of that had to do with him getting a majority of his at-bats against righties, so the book is kind of out on him a little bit,” hitting coach Dustin Kelly said to the Tribune. “That messes with the timing a little bit, and what that’s done is pushes fastball timing back, and he’s a little bit in between. So that’s kind of what we’ve seen.
“The swing mechanics are all similar. Everything that we can kind of measure are very, very close. But when you go up to the at-bat and you’re convicted in the fastball, when you get changeups, they’re hard to hit.”
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Busch’s ability to hunt fastballs and take advantage of that pitch fueled a lot of his 2025 power production when he posted a 14 Run Value, .605 slugging percentage and hit 18 home runs off the pitch. Conversely, he has a 1 Run Value, .395 slugging percentage and 13 home runs against fastballs this season.
Busch feels he did a better job last year spoiling changeups to keep at-bats alive and get to a fastball count.
“You notice they’re going to pitch you on the report as much as they can,” Busch said. “You’re still going to see fastballs in the zone. You’re still going to see pitches that you do hit in the zone. I think when it comes to the changeup, getting it in the right spot is probably the biggest part. When they’re able to execute down in the zone or even down off the plate, I’m chasing those probably a little more often than I wanted to instead of leaving them.
“The four-seam that you need to hit, they throw a changeup right out of that same slot. So, the ability to just check off of it or maybe even just buy another pitch and force them to execute that, trying to make them execute that pitch as much as possible in the at-bat.”
Busch’s 2025 regular-season success carried into the postseason, where he hit .296 with a .387 on-base percentage and slugged four home runs. An already dangerous Cubs lineup could become even more of a nightmare this postseason if Busch can get rolling over the final 2 1/2 weeks of the regular season.