Will he, or won’t he? What does he hope to gain by delaying his decision? Those questions have put Chicago’s political class on tenterhooks.
We all want to know: Will Mayor Brandon Johnson decide to run for a second term?
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Petitions have been out on the streets for weeks. There are nine candidates looking to win the February 2027 election, but so far, the mayor isn’t one of them.
For weeks, reporters have been asking “are you in?” For weeks, Johnson has been answering that he will decide “soon.” It’s getting late.
What does Johnson hope to accomplish by dragging his feet? After all, he’s not an NFL receiver trying to stay in bounds.
Some observers roll their eyes and opine that Johnson doesn’t have a chance of winning, so why should he bother to put himself through the wringer?
When reporters prodded him at a press briefing late last month, Johnson replied, “as much as I know, there’s this hurry to get to February. I’m in no rush, right? I don’t have a reason to be in a rush.”
Indeed, as an incumbent, Johnson has the luxury of waiting.
Instead, he touts his administration’s “progress,” and noted, “As I’ve repeated on multiple occasions, there’s no mayor in modern history that can ever say that they oversaw the city at a time in which our economy is growing and violence is going down.”
As the only true progressive in a crowded contest, he does have a clear lane forward. As an African American contender, it’s another story. If past electoral history bears out, the businessman and philanthropist Willie Wilson will likely capture as much as 10% of the vote, largely from African Americans. That will come out of Johnson’s hide, and it could be consequential.
Johnson’s critics argue the mayor has lost credibility on the managerial and competence side of the equation. His activist base, however, strenuously posits that he’s making progress in bringing down crime and addressing social and economic inequities.
Still, Johnson is buffeted by challenges. Police Superintendent Larry Snelling retired after a celebrated run, leaving the Police Department up in the air. Bally’s Chicago, the company that is building the $1.7 billion casino complex in River West, is on shaky financial ground. The Chicago Public Schools system is strapped for resources.
At the end of June, Johnson’s political campaign fund reported just $631,309 available, according to state records. A leading mayoral aspirant, Illinois Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias, boasts a $22 million-plus war chest.
The Chicago Teachers Union is mired in a battle with the Service Employees International Union, a once-staunch ally. Both unions donated heavily to the mayor’s first campaign, but they may not have a unified front this time. CTU will be forced to fight on two fronts, the local school board elections and the mayor’s contest, a major tactical and financial disadvantage.
Yet, the sharpest political observers are presuming Johnson will give it another go.
It’s incumbency. Johnson is keeping the focus on “the mayor,” not the mayor’s race. As the best known of the contestants, he can use his bully pulpit to cheer on his agenda.
His path is narrow. Just 13.6% of Chicago voters said they want Johnson to run again, according to a poll commissioned by the University of Chicago’s Mansueto Institute for Urban Innovation. The survey, taken in mid-June, found that 58% of respondents are not excited by another Johnson campaign. Johnson’s job approval rating had dropped to 23%, compared with 25% last December.
Don’t count him out. It’s a long way from February. He has the time and bandwidth to get his most committed voters out to put him in a runoff.
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This wait-and-see moment reminds me of years ago, when a certain two-term mayor appeared to be gearing up for a reelection campaign. It was September 2018. The fall election season had arrived.
Rahm Emanuel was facing stiff headwinds, including criticism for closing dozens of Chicago schools and mental health clinics. There was his alleged, notorious role in a cover-up of the police murder of Laquan McDonald. Those controversies haunt him to this day.
But he was still feared and powerful. The sharpest political observers presumed he would give it another shot.
Then one sleepy morning, the day after Labor Day, Emanuel called a City Hall press conference and dropped a bombshell. He would not run for reelection. That blew the campaign wide open and paved the way for the election of the then-little known Lori Lightfoot.
Was Emanuel just tired of the massive challenge of running Chicago? Or was he hedging his bets and getting out while he was still on top?
Brandon Johnson is not Rahm Emanuel.
Laura Washington is a political commentator and longtime Chicago journalist. Her columns appear in the Tribune every other Wednesday. Write to her at [email protected].
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