Before the Iran war was launched, Alonzo Abron Jr., managing broker and owner of Oak Forest-based A. Progeny Global, had more optimistic expectations about the housing market this year. Now, not so much.
With the spring home buying season well underway, real estate professionals say uncertainty abounds amid increases in the cost of living and interest rates since the start of the war.
“Before the war I assumed people were going to be in a better situation, in a better place financially than where we’re at,” said Abron.
He represents buyers and sellers in the south suburbs and is past chair of the Global Real Estate Council with the Chicago Association of Realtors.
“With the cost of gas going up, people spending more on living costs and with some people losing their jobs, that’s got to have an impact,” he said.
Lutalo McGee, president of the Chicago Association of Realtors and owner and designated managing broker with Chicago-based Ani Real Estate, which has clients throughout the metropolitan area, said expectations are that more sellers will put their houses on the market to take advantage of the rise in home prices.
McGee also hopes and expects that homeowners who’ve previously opted not to sell because they’d locked in low mortgage interest rates during COVID-19, will get off the sidelines.
“We can’t deny that there are some global events that are contributing to the uncertainty and inflation,” he said. “So, we do know those things will play out. How much they will play out, we are not absolutely sure.”
The housing market in the south suburbs and throughout the Chicago metropolitan area remains extremely challenging and complicated as it has been over the last few years, said Geoff Smith, executive director of the Institute for Housing Studies at DePaul University. He noted inventories remain tight in the Chicago area and statewide with the state having one of the slowest inventory recovery levels in the country compared to levels before the COVID-19 pandemic.
“We’re near the bottom” in inventory recovery, he said.
Andretta Robinson, a broker and team lead of the Titan Group at Re/Max 10 in Oak Lawn, said this year she has seen a rise in the inventory of homes coming on the market in the south suburbs in the below $300,000 range, but many of those are distressed properties or homes that need updates or aren’t move-in ready.
Across the metropolitan area, you may see upticks in inventory or sales activity, but it’s not sustained due to the volatility in the broader economy, Smith said.
“Inflationary factors are affecting the cost of housing, of building new housing, of improving existing housing,” said Smith. “That’s also keeping affordability a concern.”
Meanwhile mortgage interest rates are hurting home shoppers’ buying power. Rates have zig zagged this year, noted Robinson. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate, which appeared to be on a trajectory to settle below 6% this year prior to the start of the war, averaged 6.51% last week, up from 6.36% a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.85% last week, up from 5.71%.
“I have an individual right now who was looking to purchase a home,” said Abron. “At first she was going to be able to buy a $250,000 house in the south suburbs, and now she is only going to be able to buy a $200,000 house in the south suburbs.”
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DePaul’s Institute for Housing Studies Illinois Housing Market forecast and report released Friday revealed the number of closed single-family home sales in the Chicago metropolitan area fell 0.3% in April year-over-year. Prices rose almost 5%. Statewide, sales were 0.5% lower, and prices rose 7.4%.
The institute’s forecast for full-year 2026, released in December before the start of the war, projected home sales of single-family homes, townhomes, and condominiums in the Chicago metropolitan area, would rise 5.1% from 2025, and prices were estimated to increase 5%. Sales in Illinois were forecast to be about 1% higher, and sales prices were estimated to grow about 3.4%.
As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, only one submarket in Cook County experienced a year-over-year decline in prices out of 18 submarkets in suburban Cook County and 17 city of Chicago submarkets, according to a report released by the Institute in April. That was in the Calumet City/Harvey submarket, where prices declined 1.2%. On average, house prices in Cook County increased by 4% compared to the previous year.
Prices rose:
- 5.2% in the Oak Lawn/Blue Island submarket
- 4.4% in the Orland Park/Lemont submarket
- 3.6% in the Chicago Heights/Park Forest submarket
- 3% in the Oak Forest/Tinley Park submarket
Abron said for home shoppers looking to buy in the south suburbs, the advantages still include the region having some of the most affordable housing stock in the Chicago metropolitan area, the wide availability of land for housing and industrial development that can drive economic growth, and the access to expressways and trains. Higher property taxes remain a disadvantage, but overall south suburban communities are still more affordable than other areas, he said.
When he’s asked if it’s a good time to purchase a home and a mistake to sit on one’s hands despite the current economic uncertainties and challenges, Abron said he responds there is no crystal ball and no absolute yes or no answer these days.
“It’s more and more about what is your desire and capability,” he said.
He and others noted the market remains competitive given the shortage of inventory.
“I just put a house on the market four days ago and got an offer the next day,” said Abron. “If its priced right, sellers are getting pretty much what they want or close to it.
That was the case with Matteson resident Michele Andrews, who put her 5,000-square-foot, single-family home on the market in February. She wanted to downsize following the death of her husband. When she held an open house in April, 65 people turned out. She received 10 offers and accepted one, she shared.
“I didn’t think there would that much traffic for one day,” said Andrews.
But she wasn’t worried about her potential to attract home buyers despite the challenging economic environment.
“People always need a place to move based on various circumstances,” she said.
Joni Bradley-Scott, a real estate agent and broker with Keller Williams Preferred Realty in Orland Park and Andrew’s daughter, echoed that sentiment, based on her 25 years experience in the industry.
“The housing market is always influenced by things going on in our world. But people are still getting married, divorced and having babies. When life presents itself, people make decisions for their families,” Bradley-Scott said.
But given today’s economic environment, communication with clients remains key, she stressed.
“I’m having a lot of individual conversations because people are dealing with a lot right now,” she said. “I’m trying to help people understand what’s going on in the marketplace and understand numbers for their particular situation and not be reactive but embrace what’s going on and find the best outcome for their individual circumstances.”
Francine Knowles at [email protected] is a freelance columnist for the Daily Southtown.