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Gov. JB Pritzker has cast his $56 billion fiscal 2027 spending proposal, released last week, as a “maintenance budget.”

For a state whose budget has mushroomed under the seven years of Pritzker’s administration, the governor’s tone of “don’t rock the boat” caution in the face of economic uncertainty and major questions about future federal outlays to Illinois is the right one.

Spending in the year beginning July 1 would rise a modest 1.6%, but discretionary spending (leaving out obligations like pension contributions and debt service) would go up considerably less than that.

But this budget does little to address what we view as the state’s overarching economic problem — anemic business and population growth. In other words, it’s a classic election-year budget, taking no big policy swings, either in the form of tax hikes or substantial cost cuts.

We don’t see this budget doing much, if anything, to upgrade Illinois’ economic trajectory. And the narrative around this state — high-tax, highly regulated, unfriendly to business — badly needs changing.

In his speech to lawmakers, Pritzker lauded his economic successes, rightly pointing to electric vehicle manufacturer Rivian’s thousands of jobs in Bloomington, among others. The PsiQuantum campus on the Far South Side of Chicago is another feather in Pritzker’s cap.

But these splashy success stories don’t make up for Illinois’ sluggish economic performance overall. Why did Deere, long based in Moline, recently announce the construction of a $150 million distribution center off Interstate 65 in Indiana rather than in Illinois? The facility will create 150 jobs, all expected to pay more than average in Lake County, Indiana.

Moody’s annual snapshot of Illinois’ economy, recently released by the Commission on Government Forecasting & Accountability, told a familiar — and deflating — story. Illinois’ job growth last year trailed all other Midwestern states but Nebraska and Wisconsin.

The near-term outlook isn’t encouraging. The state is in a “precarious spot behind the region and the nation,” the report said.

The report reiterated familiar advantages Illinois enjoys — having by far the largest city in the region, a highly educated workforce, abundant natural resources — but laid out the obvious in explaining why those pluses aren’t generating better results: “Weak demographic trends and deep-rooted fiscal problems, such as mounting pension obligations and a shrinking tax base, represent (the state’s) biggest hurdles. … The forecast anticipates that the state will grow a step behind the Midwest average and a few steps behind the nation over the extended forecast horizon.”

Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?

As Pritzker runs for a third term, this tepid economic story has been the consistent thread throughout his tenure. We hear some Democratic lawmakers blaming the budget wars of the Rauner-Madigan era for the state’s continuing economic sluggishness. That’s hogwash at this point and needs to stop.

This is Pritzker’s economy, and should he win a third term, he needs both to take ownership of it and resolve to change it for the better. That will entail taking big swings at the state’s structural fiscal problems. Progressives’ solution is clear — taxing the rich. In their corner is House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch, who is backing a surcharge on incomes over $1 million, which would require a constitutional amendment and, in order for a substantial gain, maybe a new prohibition on moving vans.

Following Illinois voters’ 2020 rejection of his proposed constitutional amendment for a graduated state income tax, Pritzker thus far has rejected those soak-the-rich approaches. What would be his alternative?

He will need to produce one, presidential ambitions or no. Illinois has languished long enough.

There are hints on where Pritzker is heading. He began his time as governor as far more of a progressive than he appears now, at least when it comes to his current job. Today, Pritzker is repositioning himself as more of an “abundance” Democrat, focused on tangible developments — results you can see with your own eyes.

We see evidence of this in his full-throated support now for the construction of new baseload nuclear power plants, a reversal of his stance just a few short years ago. Even more dramatically, Pritzker is calling for state legislation to enable the construction of far more new housing in response to a crisis that is substantially raising the cost of shelter, whether you rent or own your own home.

We will have more to say soon on the particulars of Pritzker’s audacious housing plan, but we applaud the governor for recognizing the extent of the problem and raising the issue’s profile. It will take leadership from both the state and from municipal leaders to improve the situation. Just imagine how much worse these housing cost pressures would be if Illinois were the population magnet it ought to be.

Otherwise, this budget requires many recipients to make do with a little less than expected. The governor proposes $305 million more for public schools, modestly less than the $350 million increases the state has proffered in recent years as it creeps toward its evidence-based funding goals for K-12 education. Likewise, local governments would get a slightly smaller percentage share of state income-tax receipts, as Pritzker wants a projected $60 million increase in such revenues to balance his budget. That means income-tax revenue for municipalities would remain essentially flat.

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Maintenance budget, indeed.

So, given election-year realities and Trump-induced uncertainties, we understand why Pritzker essentially is punting with this budget. But it means one more year of likely stagnation for Illinois. Sooner or later, the state will need to do more than just muddle through.

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