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player ready...The season’s first College Football Playoff rankings will be unveiled at 7 p.m. Tuesday on ESPN. CFP hopefuls have four weeks left in the regular season, followed by conference championship weekend, to make their cases for inclusion in the 12-team field.
The rules remain largely the same as in 2024, with the five highest-ranked conference champions qualifying automatically and seven at-large berths going to the highest-ranked remaining teams. One change is the top four seeds, which receive first-round byes, no longer have to be conference champs.
Here’s a look at where Big Ten contenders and independent Notre Dame stand — and what they need to do. (Rankings from the most recent Associated Press poll.)
No. 10 Notre Dame
Record: 6-2. Losses to No. 18 Miami and No. 3 Texas A&M.
Best win: 34-24 over No. 20 USC on Oct. 18.
Remaining schedule: vs. Navy, at Pittsburgh, vs. Syracuse, at Stanford.
Biggest game: Nov. 15 at Pittsburgh. Navy was undefeated until North Texas beat the Midshipmen 31-17 on Saturday, so facing Pitt (7-2, 5-1 ACC) on the road looks like the toughest of the bunch. The Panthers, who received votes in this week’s AP poll, lost in September to West Virginia and No. 14 Louisville but have been taking care of business behind freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel.
Outlook: The Irish must earn one of seven at-large bids as an independent, and they’ve put themselves in solid position after starting the season 0-2. The win over USC was key in rebuilding their case. Coach Marcus Freeman said his team has a lot to clean up after a lackluster win over 1-8 Boston College on Saturday. But given the talent the Irish have on offense and defense, it would be a major disappointment if they didn’t win the final four games to return to the CFP.
No. 1 Ohio State
Record: 8-0, 5-0 Big Ten.
Best win: 14-7 over No. 13 Texas on Aug. 30
Remaining schedule: at Purdue, vs. UCLA, vs. Rutgers, at No. 21 Michigan.
Biggest game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. Of course. If the Buckeyes dispatch of their next three opponents as expected, a loss to their archrival likely wouldn’t knock them out of the CFP bracket. But the Wolverines (7-2, 5-1), who might be capable of giving Ohio State one of its few challenges this season, potentially could keep the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten championship game with a win.
Outlook: The defending national champions have looked the part, cruising through their games by an average margin of 29.8 points. After the opening win over Texas, the Buckeyes handily beat No. 24 Washington and Illinois. If they can maintain momentum behind a stellar defense and Heisman Trophy candidate Julian Sayin through the end of the regular season, it could set up an anticipated meeting with No. 2 Indiana in the conference title game.
No. 2 Indiana
Record: 9-0, 6-0 Big Ten.
Best win: 30-20 at No. 6 Oregon on Oct. 11.
Remaining schedule: at Penn State, vs. Wisconsin, at Purdue.
Biggest game: Dec. 6 in the Big Ten championship game. This isn’t trying to jinx the situation, but Indiana losing to any of its next three opponents would be stunning. Penn State, Wisconsin and Purdue are a combined 0-16 in conference play. The Hoosiers’ next big test should come in Indianapolis in the conference title game.
Outlook: A surprise CFP qualifier a year ago, Indiana has left little doubt this season about its capabilities. The Hoosiers have spent most of the season destroying lesser competition by an average of 37.5 points. That includes winning by 53 against Illinois, by 50 against UCLA and by 45 against Maryland. The margins were slimmer — but the wins more meaningful — at Oregon and Iowa. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has emerged as one of Sayin’s biggest competitors in the Heisman race.
No. 6 Oregon
Record: 7-1, 4-1 Big Ten. Loss to No. 2 Indiana.
Best win: 30-24 at Penn State in double overtime on Sept. 27.
Remaining schedule: at Iowa, vs. Minnesota, vs. No. 20 USC, at No. 24 Washington.
Biggest game: Saturday at Iowa. The Ducks have multiple challenges ahead, but let’s start with facing the Hawkeyes (6-2, 4-1) in Iowa City. Iowa has won three straight since losing to Indiana 20-15 and is one of four teams with one Big Ten loss. If Oregon slips up, the pressure is on over the final three games.
Outlook: The Ducks were the No. 1 seed in the 2024 CFP before losing to Ohio State in the quarterfinals. Now they’re the clear No. 3 team in the Big Ten, with their lone loss to Indiana. But their signature win over Penn State looked a lot better before the Nittany Lions collapsed into one of the conference’s worst teams. Oregon’s remaining conference schedule is also one of the more difficult among the Big Ten’s CFP candidates. There’s more than one tricky test against four teams with a combined 15 conference wins — but that’s also an opportunity for the Ducks to prove they’re up for it.
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No. 20 USC
Record: 6-2, 4-1 Big Ten. Losses to Illinois and No. 10 Notre Dame.
Best win: 31-13 over No. 21 Michigan on Oct. 11.
Remaining schedule: vs. Northwestern, vs. Iowa, at No. 6 Oregon, vs. UCLA.
Biggest game: Nov. 22 at Oregon. Topping the Ducks would give USC its best win of the season, but the Trojans would have to win the other three too — and none of those is a given.
Outlook: The Trojans, who boast one of the country’s most prolific offenses behind quarterback Jayden Maiava, stumbled in two of their three biggest tests — losing on a last-second Illinois field goal on Sept. 27 and failing to keep up with Notre Dame in a 34-24 nonconference loss. But the win over Michigan was a big one — including for a potential conference championship game tiebreaker should the Wolverines beat Ohio State. And a fairly strong schedule over the last month gives the Trojans a chance to state their case.
No. 21 Michigan
Record: 7-2, 5-1 Big Ten. Losses to No. 11 Oklahoma and No. 20 USC.
Best win: 24-7 over No. 24 Washington on Oct. 18.
Remaining schedule: at Northwestern, at Maryland, vs. No. 1 Ohio State.
Biggest game: Nov. 29 vs. Ohio State. A fifth straight win against the Buckeyes potentially would have Big Ten championship game implications. But the Wolverines have to handle their next two to set up another fun chapter in the rivalry game.
Outlook: The Wolverines’ two losses were to ranked teams. Led by a top-20 defense, they have managed to beat lesser opponents, but the victory over Washington was the only really notable one. Michigan has a chance to change that at the end of this month.
Two more to consider
Iowa is 6-2 and 4-1 in the Big Ten with losses to Iowa State and Indiana. The Hawkeyes are unranked in the AP poll and lack a signature win, but they have opportunities to turn heads down the stretch. They host Oregon on Saturday and visit USC on Nov. 15.
The only losses for Washington (6-2, 3-2) were against Ohio State and at Michigan, while the Huskies’ most impressive victory was 42-25 over Illinois. They have a good opportunity to win their next three against losing teams and set up a key home meeting with Oregon in the regular-season finale.
Illinois teams outlook
Illinois and Northwestern each lost their third game of the season Oct. 25 to kill their playoff hopes. The Illini lost at Washington to add to their losses to Ohio State and Indiana. And the Wildcats lost to Nebraska to add to losses to Tulane and Oregon.
They still have a chance to be competitive down the stretch as they look toward bowl games, and Northwestern could be a problem for two teams — USC and Michigan — trying to scrap into the CFP. The Illini and Wildcats end the season against each other Nov. 29 in Champaign.