Last weekend, Russia pounded Ukrainian positions in the Kharkiv region with a bevy of cruise missiles
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and one-way attack drones, killing at least four people and destroying a blood transfusion center. The strikes near Ukraine’s second-largest city were part of a systematic wave of attacks involving at least 40 missiles, a sight that has become all too familiar as the war inches toward the 18-month mark.Nearly 3,000 miles away in Saudi Arabia, delegates from Ukraine, the U.S., Europe and key members of the so-called Global South such as India, South Africa and Brazil were huddling together and talking about peace in Ukraine. Nobody in attendance was naive enough to think that a peace deal was imminent or even likely this year — as White House national security spokesman John Kirby said, the talks in Jeddah weren’t about negotiating an end to the war but rather about discussing what a hypothetical just peace for Ukraine could look like. Given the chasm-like gaps between Ukraine and Russia on what an optimal settlement should consist of, anything more would be setting oneself up for disappointment.
Judging by that very low bar, the talks in Saudi Arabia could be judged a success. More than 40 countries attended the discussions, including China, a fact that wasn’t lost on Western officials who have a habit of grasping at straws for any good news on the war. As the West tells it, China’s attendance at the talks was a significant development because it demonstrated that Beijing was perhaps growing leery of the conflict and growing increasingly agitated about how the Russians have waged it. Perhaps the “no-limits” partnership between China and Russia declared weeks before Russian missiles started flying in Ukrainian cities isn’t all that it’s cracked up to be? Perhaps Chinese President Xi Jinping is getting tired of the war to the point in which he would pressure his friend in the Kremlin to wind it down?
You can sympathize with those who may hold that view. Chinese participation in the Ukraine peace conference was indeed notable, if only because Beijing didn’t send a delegation during the first session in June. This time, China not only showed up but also actively participated and was open to a follow-up meeting in the fall. In the words of one European official, the “mere presence of China shows Russia is more and more isolated” on the world stage. For Kyiv’s supporters in the West, Beijing’s willingness to agree with the general consensus that any end-of-war settlement must respect Ukraine’s sovereignty was seen as a big step in the right direction.
Yet at the risk of being the skunk at the garden party, one must put all of these events in perspective. Otherwise, the United States and its NATO partners risk seeing things that aren’t really there.
For one, we shouldn’t read too much into China’s attendance. While it’s certainly helpful that the Chinese participated in good faith, it would have been awkward if they decided to stay away. Outside of Russia, which wasn’t invited and probably wouldn’t have sent a delegation anyway, China didn’t want to be the only member of the BRICS — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — to stay away. This has less to do with vanity and more to do with the fact that Xi sees his country as a major geopolitical stakeholder in its own right with the power to influence the course of world events. Viewed from this standpoint, simply ignoring the meetings or letting Washington and its allies run them would have been counterproductive. If a big international conference is going to occur, having a representative in the room at least allows China to have a seat at the table and safeguard its own interests.
Second, China’s participation may be as much a favor to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as it is a genuine attempt at conflict resolution in Ukraine. Bilateral relations between Riyadh and Beijing have blossomed over the last several years and are getting more extensive, above and beyond China’s usual purchase of Saudi crude oil. The Saudis agreed to join the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the spring, a political and security grouping that also includes Russia and India. Saudi and Chinese officials are moving toward a free-trade agreement, and in December 2021, the U.S. intelligence community assessed that the Saudis began producing their own ballistic missiles with Chinese technical assistance. Prince Mohammed clearly views China as a convenient strategic partner for the kingdom and a way to make Washington nervous, particularly during times of turbulence in the U.S.-Saudi relationship. Xi is perfectly fine with that arrangement. Why rock the boat by not showing up, especially when doing so would have been seen by the crown princeas a personal affront?
Finally, if anybody thinks China’s sojourn in Jeddah means that Beijing is rethinking its relationship with Russia, they should lie down on a couch and wait until the feeling passes. While it’s true that Xi isn’t exactly thrilled with how Putin’s war in Ukraine has progressed and was opposed to Moscow’s axing of the Black Sea Grain Initiative last month (China was the top destination for Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products under the scheme), whatever concerns Beijing has with its Russian partner are outweighed by the need to balance the U.S. in Asia. As long as U.S. foreign policy is effectively governed by a dual-containment strategy against China and Russia, then the two countries have every incentive to continue collaborating with one another — minor disagreements over Ukraine notwithstanding.
In life, people sometimes have the propensity to read too much into things. Foreign policy analysts and officials aren’t any different.
Daniel DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a foreign affairs columnist for the baiduhai.
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