Rich Strike did not exist as far as fans and bettors were concerned when they handicapped the 2022 Kentucky Derby. His trainer, little-known Eric Reed, did not even find out he’d be in the race until the morning before.
So a spasm of shock and joy surged through the 147,294 patrons at Churchill Downs when the 80-1 underdog roared past the two most accomplished horses in the field, Zandon and Epicenter, to snatch the first jewel in the Triple Crown series.
In an event often dominated by the sport’s blue-blood trainers and owners, who spend millions of dollars a year questing after this one race, here was a reminder that anything is possible.
But as the calendar turns toward another Derby, we’re also five years removed from the sport’s last 3-year-old superstar. Since Justify won the Triple Crown in 2018, three different horses have won the three races in the series — the Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes — each year. Reed and Rich Strike did not even attempt to win the Preakness last May, renewing questions about whether the Triple Crown races are too close together to suit the modern thoroughbred calendar.
Track officials are also searching for answers after four horses, including Derby qualifier Wild on Ice, either died suddenly or suffered fatal injuries over a six-day period. “While a series of events like this is highly unusual, it is completely unacceptable,” Churchill Downs said in a statement Wednesday. On Thursday, Churchill Downs took the unusual steps of suspending Saffie Joseph Jr., the trainer whose two horses died suddenly and without explanation, and scratching Joseph’s Derby contender, Lord Miles, from Saturday’s field.
In the shadow of these deaths, will the race be the launchpad for a new star or the door to another five weeks of chaos? Here are five storylines to keep an eye on as posttime approaches:
1. Who’s the favorite after Forte is scratched?
We rarely see the sport’s 2-year-old champion retain momentum and enter the Derby as a largely unblemished favorite. But Forte hasn’t put a foot wrong since he finished fourth in the second race of his career in July. He has won five straight stakes, four of them Grade 1, with his victories in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the April 1 Florida Derby stamping him as the horse to beat going into the Triple Crown series.
He’s trained by one of the sport’s titans, Todd Pletcher, and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., who led all North American jockeys in winnings by more than $7 million last year. So what’s not to like?
Well, the early favorite was scratched Saturday hours before the race, according to Churchill Downs spokesman Darren Rogers. No immediate reason was announced.
The colt stumbled on the track during a workout Thursday, although Pletcher had downplayed it. It was the fifth scratch this week from the 1 1/4-mile race, leaving 18 horses to run, the smallest field since the 2020 Derby. Tapit Trice and Angel of Empire were both listed at 9-2 odds after Forte’s withdrawal. Ortiz now will be aboard Cyclone Mischief.
Pletcher has saddled more horses for the Derby than any trainer in history — he won it in 2017 with favored Always Dreaming and in 2010 with Super Saver — but Forte was the most accomplished contender he had ever brought to Louisville. Now, it’s an open question about when the 3-year-old will race next.
2. On the other hand, is it possible Forte isn’t even the class of Todd Pletcher’s barn?
It’s not hard to find fans and bettors who prefer Tapit Trice, a 5-1 second choice in the morning line, to Forte. He did not run against elite competition until the April 8 Blue Grass Stakes, but his gritty victory there convinced many handicappers of his improving form. He doubled down by training sharply coming off his career-best win.
Tapit Trice has a beautiful stride, and his pedigree says he should handle the 1 1/4-mile distance of the Derby just fine. But he has started sluggishly in previous races, and the break will be essential for jockey Luis Saez, who will not want to be stuck in the traffic created by an 18-horse field.
Pletcher, who’s also preparing undefeated Kingsbarns for the race, acknowledged “it’s probably going to be the strongest team that we’ve brought” to the Derby, a strong statement from the leading money winner among all trainers in North American history.
If Pletcher believes one contender is clearly better than another, he has not tipped his hand, saying only that Tapit Trice would have been as worthy a Derby favorite as Forte. Will we see an intra-barn duel down the stretch Saturday? No one would be terribly surprised.
3. Could Derma Sotogake be the horse to bring a Derby win to Japan?
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Over the last decade, Derby officials have created new qualifying avenues to encourage international entrants and in turn, attract international betting revenue. We see contenders from the robust Japanese racing scene almost every year, but North American trainers have viewed these overseas rivals with some skepticism because they have not won or really come close.
The last international contender to create serious buzz on the backside was Mendelssohn in 2018, and he finished dead last for the great Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien.
Derma Sotogake is next in line, coming off a sizzling victory in the UAE Derby in Dubai, the same race that propelled Mendelssohn to Churchill Downs. It’s difficult to gauge the competition this Japanese colt has defeated in his four career wins (of the 18 horses that have gone from the UAE Derby to the Kentucky Derby, none have finished better than fifth). But he’s a 10-1 choice in the morning line, evidence that handicappers take seriously his chance to seize an early lead and hold it. Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey and fellow NBC analyst Randy Moss both placed him in their group of five or six contenders that could win.
Derma Sotogake’s assistant trainer, Masanari Tanaka, has told reporters the colt would change Japanese racing history with a win at Churchill Downs.
4. Which other horses stand out from the second tier of contenders?
If Forte had inspired as much awe in the Florida Derby as he did in a month earlier in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, we might be talking about him as an overwhelming favorite. Instead, analysts see a clump of horses at the top of this field.
“At this point, on paper, a lot of them look pretty similar,” Bailey said.
No trainer has stayed on a greater roll the last few years than Louisville native Brad Cox, who will saddle four horses for Saturday’s race, led by Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire and Blue Grass Stakes runner-up Verifying.
Angel of Empire is an 8-1 third choice in the morning line coming off his career-best performance in the Arkansas Derby. He has outrun Cox’s expectations: “If you had asked me back in November or December if I thought he was Derby horse, I would say, probably needs to do more. But guess what? He did do more.”
But the Beyer Speed Figures, statistics that adjust for distance and track conditions, say Verify’s narrow loss to Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass was actually more impressive than Angel of Empire’s victory in Arkansas. So perhaps he’s the better value at 15-1 in the morning line.
Santa Anita Derby champion Practical Move would have been in this robust group of contenders, but trainer Tim Yakteen scratched him from the field Thursday because he fell ill with a fever.
5. Is there a Rich Strike in this year’s field?
It’s a trick question, because if anyone had seen Rich Strike coming, the story would not have been nearly as captivating. But there are some less extreme underdogs in this year’s field with potential to pull an upset.
Skinner, a 20-1 choice in the morning line, would have been a good value pick coming off his fast third-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, but he joined the parade of scratches Friday morning, also because of a fever.
Two Phil’s (yes, that’s how you spell it) is perhaps the most intriguing mystery in the field, with the best peak Beyer Speed Figure of all. But he achieved that result on a synthetic, rather than dirt, surface in the March 25 Jeff Ruby Steaks. So no one seems quite sure what to make of it.
Whether we see another wild upset or not, NBC analyst Steve Kornacki said Rich Strike’s victory could powerfully impact betting patterns this year, with wagerers perhaps inclined to bet down the odds on long shots as they did in 2010, after Mine That Bird won at 50-1 odds in 2009.
The Associated Press contributed to this article.
149th Kentucky Derby
At Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky
Saturday, 6:57 p.m.
TV: Chs. 11, 4