Despite all the drama and hubbub swirling around the Chicago mayoral race, I still think Lori Lightfoot is poised to win a second term.
Early voting begins Thursday for the Feb. 28 primary. Eight challengers are hoping to dethrone the first Black woman to be mayor of America’s third-largest city. The hopefuls fall into two distinct tiers, with one group having distinct advantages over the other.
I broke down the mayor’s race last week during a regular visit with senior citizens who meet weekly for lunch at Shir Tikvah synagogue in Homewood. They asked for my analysis, which I based on name recognition, fundraising, past election results and other factors.
Suburbanites are understandably interested in Chicago’s mayoral election. For one, we’re bombarded with TV commercials from various candidates. Though suburbanites don’t vote in the election there is a sense that Chicago wields considerable influence over the suburbs.
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For example, previous mayors opposed the so-called third airport near Peotone to protect interests at O’Hare and Midway. The proposed South Suburban Airport remains in limbo despite growing need for additional air cargo capacity to serve the region.
Lightfoot won her first term in 2019 in a landslide over Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle. None of the 14 candidates running in the Democratic primary that year received 50% of the vote, so the top two vote-getters faced off in an April election.
About a third of Chicago’s 1.5 million registered voters tend to vote in the city’s mayoral primaries. A notable exception was 2011, when turnout spiked to 42.3% and Rahm Emanuel won 54% of the vote. It was the first time in 20 years an incumbent wasn’t on the ballot.
Four of the eight challengers have raised significantly more funds than others. As of last week, according to analyst Frank Calabrese, entrepreneur Willie Wilson led the pack with $4.1 million in fundraising.
Former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas raised $1.8 million, Cook County Board member Brandon Johnson $1.7 million, Lightfoot $1.5 million and U.S. Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia $1.3 million.
Next was Ald. Sophia King at $229,000. Also trailing in fundraising were community activist Ja’Mal Green, state Rep. Kam Buckner and Ald. Roderick Sawyer. The divide is so great it’s difficult to imagine any of the lower-tier hopefuls mounting a significant challenge.
Polling seems unreliable and it would be a mistake to give too much weight to any single poll, I told the Homewood seniors. Crime and taxes seem to rank among the top issues in the campaign, but there doesn’t seem to be much difference among the candidates in how they would address those concerns.
Lightfoot has taken some hits lately, but I haven’t seen anything yet that looks like a mortal blow. She faces ethics investigations after her campaign emailed Chicago Public Schools teachers seeking help recruiting students to work on her campaign.
One reason I think she remains the front-runner is that despite her many flaws, the field running against her is relatively weak. Garcia, for example, is linked to the federal corruption probe of former House Speaker Michael Madigan. Lightfoot has effectively pointed out the Garcia-Madigan connection in her TV commercials.
Vallas is a serious contender who earned a reputation as an effective administrator during his tenure as head of the public schools system. But good public servants don’t always make the best political candidates. Look at Preckwinkle’s mayoral bid or former Gov. Pat Quinn’s 2014 loss to Bruce Rauner.
Some speculate that the city’s Black vote or Latino vote may prove to be a deciding factor in the contest. I don’t see it that way. Lightfoot won in 2019 by earning the support of white voters on the city’s North and Northwest sides. Wilson carried 13 predominantly Black wards on the South and West sides but finished fourth overall.
Census numbers show that of the city’s 2.7 million residents, 45.3% identify as white only, 29.2% as Black and 28.7% as Hispanic. Turnout tends to be higher among older voters. A key factor will be whether older voters show preference for a particular candidate or distribute their votes evenly among the field.
Wilson’s lack of political experience is a liability. He’s a public figure, sure enough, known for giving away free gasoline and for his weekly “Singsation” gospel music show on WGN-TV. He has significant support, though many others see his political campaigns as driven by ego and vanity rather public service.
Johnson is emerging as a rising star with a bright future, but he seems to lack the name recognition to win such an important election at this time. The Chicago Teachers Union and others support him. Success will depend on which candidate gets the most supporters to turn out.
In 2019, each of the 14 mayoral primary candidates received a relatively small percentage of votes from the city’s 1.5 million registered votes. Lightfoot led with 97,667 and Preckwinkle earned her runoff spot with 89,343 votes.
William M. Daley, a son and brother of former mayors, was third with 82,294. Wilson received 59,072 votes in that race and only 30,236 people voted for Vallas four years ago.
I think criticism of Lightfoot is warranted. She’s tried to appear tough on crime and has clashed with police rank and file. Others have criticized Lightfoot after a police officer with ties to the Proud Boys white supremacist organization was suspended but not fired.
Still, I think incumbency is a huge advantage regardless of job performance. Just look at Kim Foxx’s 2020 reelection despite the debacle over Jussie Smollett and numerous other concerns.
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It’s Lightfoot’s race to lose. I expect the crowded field will prevent her from getting 50% in the primary. She’ll likely face a runoff against Garcia, Johnson, Vallas or Wilson. Any of the four could finish second.
I’ll use my powers of prognostication to predict Lightfoot will defeat Vallas in April.
Ted Slowik is a columnist for the Daily Southtown.