What’s next for Gov. J.B. Pritzker depends on the outcome of Tuesday’s elections.
From my perch, the one-term incumbent Democrat is likely to prevail over his arch-opponent, Republican state Sen. Darren Bailey. The slugfest will soon mercifully end and relieve us of their maddeningly negative TV ads.
Pritzker’s political future depends on how big he wins and how battered President Joe Biden emerges from the national midterm elections.
The likely outcome on Tuesday is that Democrats will lose their control of the U.S. House and Senate. If the Republicans sweep Congress, Biden will be blamed for the debacle. His administration’s agenda will be eviscerated.
No matter that history shows the party in power usually loses in midterm elections. Biden will have to carry the water for that and may have to decline to run for reelection in 2024.
If Biden gets out, Pritzker may be in. The governor’s possible presidential aspirations are well known.
At a televised debate last month, Bailey tried to turn that ambition into a political liability. He asked the governor whether he would pledge to serve a full four-year term if he were reelected.
“Are you going to run for president?” Bailey demanded to know.
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“I intend to serve four years more if reelected,” Pritzker replied. “I intend to support the president; he’s running for reelection.”
If Biden doesn’t?
Last summer, Pritzker spoke at Democratic Party events in Florida and New Hampshire, two states that will be pivotal in the 2024 presidential race. He has worked diligently to position himself as a national voice for abortion rights and gun control.
During the 2022 election season, Pritzker has donated at least $3.75 million to Democratic political committees and to gubernatorial and U.S. Senate candidates around the country, a WBEZ/Sun-Times analysis of state and federal campaign finance data shows.
How seriously he will be taken in November 2024 depends, in part, on his performance Tuesday. A blowout against Bailey would help.
Pritzker will be seen as a viable presidential contender only if “it’s not a close race,” said Don Rose, my go-to political prognosticator. Rose is a longtime Chicago-based political consultant to a slew of Democratic and progressive candidates.
Pritzker needs to beat Bailey “by 8 to 12 points, minimally,” Rose told me recently. “If it’s closer than that, it won’t look good. You know, all (things) considered, with the money he’s spending, and so on.”
Pritzker poured $152 million of his own money into his reelection campaign, the Tribune reported on Oct. 30.
The multibillionaire can help finance his own multibillion-dollar crusade to take the White House. His presidential platform might replay some of his arguments for a second gubernatorial term. That Illinois voters confidently elected him to a second term. That he guided the state through historic crises like the pandemic and widespread civil unrest. That he stabilized the state’s finances, while also championing women’s rights and racial equity.
If Biden doesn’t run, Pritzker will join the horde of others who will be lining up for 2024.
For example, Democratic Party warhorses such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, prominent U.S. senators and 2020 presidential contenders. Warren won’t be willing to concede the national star status she has carefully cultivated since her 2020 run.
Other top Democrats who might reprise presidential runs include Vice President Kamala Harris, New Jersey U.S. Sen. Cory Booker, U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota.
Some Democratic Party influencers will look to the future, and fresh faces such as U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan, as well as Georgia U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock.
Pritzker? “Even though I think he’s been a good governor, I just don’t think he’s going to wind up being taken very seriously or being a major contender for the presidency,” Rose said.
Democrats will be looking for an “exciting” candidate who can take on a conservative Republican nominee, Rose argued. “Exciting the way Bernie (Sanders) was, exciting in the way (Barack) Obama was.”
Pritzker, Rose said, has “the charisma of a toenail. “
I give Pritzker more credit. He is popular among his Democratic base, particularly among its most reliable segments, African Americans, other voters of color and the LGBTQ community.
Yet if he doesn’t win “big” in Illinois, as Pritzker likes to say, any 2024 White House plans will be history.
Rose noted, with a wry chuckle, a controversy that plagued Pritzker’s 2018 gubernatorial campaign — dubbed “Toiletgate.”
Pritzker was hounded by accusations that he improperly obtained tax breaks by removing the toilets from his Gold Coast mansion so that he could declare the house uninhabitable.
If Pritzker runs, Rose said, “he’d have to fend off the toilet issue, which becomes a lot worse when you multiply it by 50 states.”
Pritzker can handle it. His voice in 2024 would bring a breath of fresh air.
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Laura Washington is a political commentator and longtime Chicago journalist. Her columns appear in the Tribune each Monday. Write to her at [email protected].
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