Hurricane Ian’s track shifts slightly east, expected to hit Gulf coast as ‘extremely dangerous major hurricane’

Hurricane Ian made its presence known in South Florida on Tuesday night with multiple tornadoes spinning through Broward County, power outages across the region and strong winds as the Gulf coast awaits the unnerving reality of a major hurricane making landfall.

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Ian’s forecast track shifted again to the southeast late Tuesday, increasing the danger to Florida’s southern Gulf coast as South Florida began experiencing squally, rainy weather.

The National Hurricane Center’s 8 p.m. update said Ian will reach Florida’s west coast as “an extremely dangerous major hurricane” as it re-strengthens over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

The gravest hurricane threat to Florida’s west coast in years lay about 110 miles southwest of Naples and 15 miles north of the Dry Tortugas, inching north-northeast at 10 mph, according to a midnight update from the National Hurricane Center.

The storm’s top wind speed held at 120 mph but was expected to rise to 130 mph, the threshold for Category 4 strength, by the time the hurricane approaches landfall Wednesday afternoon somewhere on the Gulf coast. Earlier forecasts predicted the storm would weaken before hitting the coast, but the newer track predicts it will make landfall at the peak of its power.

A hurricane center forecaster wrote in the latest advisory that whether Ian arrives at Category 3 or 4 strength, “avoiding a large and destructive hurricane for Florida seems very unlikely, and residents should heed the advice of local emergency management officials.”

The center of Ian is forecast to move over central Florida Wednesday night and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday.

Ian spawned at least two tornadoes in Broward County on Tuesday night, the National Weather Service said. The tornadoes followed similar paths over Weston, Sunrise, Davie and Cooper City, the weather service said.

A possible tornado near Kings Point Delray toppled trees, wrecked cars and displaced 35 people.

Parts of Palm Beach and Broward were under several tornado warnings throughout Tuesday night, and all of South Florida is under a tornado watch through at least 5 a.m. Wednesday.

A tropical storm watch for southeastern Florida was upgraded to a tropical storm warning Tuesday, meaning winds of at least 39 mph are expected within 36 hours. The warning now extends across the entire east coast of Florida and around to the Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

“Life-threatening storm surge is increasingly likely along the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with the highest risk from Naples to the Sarasota region,” the hurricane center wrote.

President Joe Biden announced the prepositioning of 3.5 million liters of water, 3.7 million meals and hundreds of generators and said he spoke with the mayors of Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater.

“I told them, I mean this sincerely, whatever they need, contact me directly,” Biden said Tuesday afternoon.

Expecting life-threatening flooding and facing uncertainty about the storm’s path, authorities ordered evacuations across a broad stretch of the coast. More than 2.5 million people are under evacuation orders in more than a dozen counties, Gov. Ron DeSantis said Tuesday night.

The storm’s forecast path moved southeast, raising the risk to the Gulf coast south of Tampa and threatening southeast Florida with more wind and rain. The region from Sarasota to Fort Myers could see a storm surge of up to 12 feet, as the storm’s winds push seawater inland, the hurricane center said.

With the shift of the storm’s forecast track, the chances increased for high winds in southeast Florida, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.

Broward and Miami-Dade counties now have a 50-70% chance of sustained tropical force winds, which means speeds of at least 39 mph. Palm Beach County has a 65-80% chance.

In a 6 p.m. report, the National Weather Service said any further shift east of Ian’s track “could bring increasingly hazardous conditions closer” to South Florida.

All of South Florida can expect tropical-storm conditions starting Wednesday morning, the weather service’s update said. Major flooding from rain is possible across the region through Thursday morning, along with the possibility of tornadoes through Wednesday.

The high winds are most likely to last through Thursday afternoon in Palm Beach County and from Wednesday morning to before dawn Thursday in Broward and Miami-Dade counties.

DeSantis and Jared Perdue, Florida Department of Transportation secretary, said the Florida Highway Patrol and local law enforcement officials will close bridges if sustained wind speeds exceed 40 mph. DeSantis urged people to take possible bridge closures as early as Wednesday into any evacuation plans.

Despite the attention given to high winds, the biggest killer in hurricanes tends to be water. The hurricane center warned that the Gulf coast faces a high risk of storm surge, the rapid increase in sea level that can flood coastal neighborhoods.

Two to four inches of rain have fallen across southeastern Florida in the last day with some areas seeing between four and six inches, according to the weather service. Forecasters are expecting another four to eight inches to come through the weekend.

Ian’s outer bands continued to move over South Florida overnight and will increase in strength through Wednesday, and there could be potential significant impacts from wind across much of Palm Beach County and western Broward County, according to the weather service’s update.

Florida Power & Light deployed 16,000 crew members at nearly two dozen staging, parking and prepositioning sites throughout the state, FPL president and CEO Eric Silagy said Tueday. They have already responded to outages triggered by storm bands in Broward and Miami-Dade counties, he said.

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Crews will continue to make repairs as needed until winds become unsafe, he said. During the most severe part of the storm, crews will likely remain sheltered for 12 to 20 hours.

The storm is expected to expand as it strengthens, placing a larger area at risk of high winds. These winds can rip off tree branches, knock down power line and blow objects off the ground, the weather service said.

FPL reported that 4,880 customers were without power in Broward County as of 11 p.m. In Miami-Dade County, about 11,000 customers were without power and about 7,300 in Palm Beach County.

DeSantis said Monday evening that many parts of the state are likely to lose power.

“We’ve said from the beginning people are going to lose power, and you need to be prepared for that. And it’s not going to be something that’s going to automatically just go back on very quickly because you’re going to have extensive damage, and you’re going to have to have crews be able to get in, roads are going to have to be cleared,” the governor said.

The National Hurricane Center’s latest advisory said the Florida eas and southeast Florida will see between 6 and 8 inches of rain with as much as 12 inches in some areas. Central and northeast Florida could see between 12 and 18 inches, with a maximum of 24 inches in some areas.

Forecasters are also monitoring an area of stormy weather in the Atlantic off Africa that appears to be little threat to land. The system has a 70% chance of forming a short-lived tropical depression, the hurricane center said in its 8 p.m. update.

The next named storm to form would be Julia.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

Staff writers Ron Hurtibise, David Lyons, Lois Solomon and Scott Travis contributed to this report. Information from the Associated Press was also used.