While the Russian invasion of Ukraine is filled with complexities, a local college professor says it could have been avoided.
“This is a war that should not have happened if cooler heads prevailed in Washington and in Russia, and I would say in Ukraine also because they are in the middle,” said George Lungu, a professor of political science at Oakton Community College, which has campuses in Skokie and Des Plaines.
Lungu, a native of Romania who specializes in international relations, security studies and American foreign policy, will be speaking on the Russia-Ukraine conflict at the college, with a tentative date of March 8 set.
Among the invasion’s main triggers is Ukraine’s push to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, an idea that antagonizes Russia, Lungu explained.
“Russia sees this military alliance, which includes some of the most militarily powerful countries in the world, as moving closer and closer to its borders,” he explained. “Russia feels it is a threat to their security. They would have no access to Ukraine — economic or otherwise.”
And Russia believes it needs to reclaim Ukraine, which prior to 1990 was part of the Soviet Union, he explained.
“Russia without Ukraine is basically a marginal Asian country, totally subservient to China. Any kind of idea of being a great power, one that matters, one that is taken seriously, must include Ukraine,” Lungu said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was seeking a signed declaration that NATO would not expand to include Ukraine, Lungu said. Past leaders in the United States also advised against the inclusion of Ukraine in NATO, calling for Ukraine to be a “neutral” country, he said.
“Clearly Putin and Russia are the aggressors and clearly I believe Putin made a major, major strategic blunder for Russia and Ukraine as well, by pulling the trigger and invading (Ukraine), but there could have been a solution that would have been satisfactory,” Lungu said. “I don’t understand why the United States would insist on Ukraine joining NATO. It’s not even in Ukraine’s interest.”
Joining NATO would give Ukraine assistance from NATO-member countries in the event it was attacked by Russia, Lungu said, but this would not lead to a beneficial outcome.
“Russia would certainly be at the losing end of that and Russia could very well use nuclear weapons,” he said. “That’s the nightmare, the horror scenario. There are really no benefits to Ukraine being in NATO if its security is guaranteed by other means.”
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When asked if sanctions imposed on Russia will push military forces out of Ukraine, Lungu said he does not believe they will, as sanctions have not worked well in other countries, namely Iran and North Korea. Additionally, sanctions could harm Europe’s ability to obtain much-needed oil from Russia, as well as exports of titanium and platinum that the world relies on for electronics, he said.
Russia, Lungu added, is unlikely to yield to sanctions anyway.
“What we as Americans don’t understand is that some countries — more traditional and more steeped in nationalism — are willing to incur a lot of pain and not yield,” he said.