At this time last year, Kris Dunn’s future with the Chicago Bulls was at a crossroads. The organization reportedly shopped him on the trade market, and although the Bulls were unsuccessful in dealing him, they were ready to find a new starting point guard.
Dunn responded by rebranding himself this past season, shifting his role from dominant ballhandler to defensive specialist in a reserve role. When injuries started to strike to the Bulls rotation, Dunn found his way back into the starting lineup at the start of December and the team’s defense took off.
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The Bulls defense hovered around the top 10 in the NBA with Dunn as one of the centerpieces of their aggressive, blitzing style. He ranked second in the league in steals despite registering significantly less court time than other players on the leaderboard. And after Dunn sprained an MCL at the end of January, which ultimately ended his season, the Bulls defense plummeted.
It made Dunn’s fate one of the more interesting questions for the Bulls’ new management to answer during this abnormal offseason. His qualifying offer will now be $7.1 million, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks, after an adjustment to the starter criteria under the league’s collective bargaining agreement. The games-started threshold was prorated after the Bulls’ season was cut to 65 games this season because of the coronavirus pandemic.
The ramifications of the pandemic have made projections of next season’s salary cap uncertain, but the Bulls are unlikely to have much flexibility. Otto Porter Jr. will almost certainly exercise his $28.5 million player option for next season, pushing them over the cap. And with a weak upcoming free-agent class, the Bulls might be best suited to try to retain the restricted free agent Dunn for next season at least.
Dunn has already proved how much he can impact a defense, and his presence alone is a game-changer for the offense. With Dunn in the lineup, the Bulls had a defensive rating of 106.4, which would have been top five in the league. When he sat, the Bulls defensive rating moved to 112.6, which would put them in the bottom eight.
Dunn was a disruptor on defense, consistently guarding the opponent’s best offensive player while remaining a ball hawk. His 101 steals were fourth in the NBA despite playing about 200 fewer minutes than anyone else in the top five. Dunn will get some consideration for the NBA All-Defense team, and it is warranted.
Dunn possesses a valuable skill set in today’s NBA, and the most optimistic projections could see him develop into the roles Marcus Smart and Patrick Beverley play for the Celtics and Clippers, respectively.
Dunn still has limitations on offense. He shot 25.9% from beyond the 3-point arc, teams often paid him little attention on the outside and he just became more expensive despite issues staying healthy the last two seasons. In fact, he has not played more than 52 games since he was a rookie with the Timberwolves.
And that’s where the case could become more difficult for the Bulls, especially if Dunn seeks the stability of a long-term contract. Based on his history, the Bulls likely will be wary of adding long-term salary when their books are pretty clean going forward.
A one-year deal could make a lot of sense for Dunn and the Bulls, should he need to reestablish value after another injury-shortened season. The Bulls don’t have an obvious candidate to replace him, and it would be a big step forward for someone such as Shaquille Harrison to fill that role right away.
It would also give Dunn, whom the Bulls acquired in the trade for Jimmy Butler three years ago, another year to show improvement offensively before entering the much-anticipated free-agent market of 2021, when many teams will have cap flexibility.
If the activity in this year’s free-agent market is going to be limited, a reunion might be the best case for Dunn and the Bulls. It would bring back an elite on-ball defender, and Dunn has shown the leaps he can make when he feels like he has something to prove.