The world, including the U.S., is reopening on an ambitious scale. Starting now, mid-June, and into July, countries and regions are easing off of restrictions; airlines are adding schedules, and dormant hotels are getting ready to accommodate guests again. All in all, the travel industry is saying, “We’re back; c’mon and join us.” Most industry folks expect that hotels and airlines will add “We’re giving you great deals” to the invitation. And certainly those who get in on the revival early are likely to experience a refreshingly small number of other visitors to crowd the key attractions.
Enticing as that scenario might appear, you have to recognize one other stark fact: The reopening may be coming too quickly. Some destinations are reopening while they’re still experiencing an increasing number of new COVID-19 cases, indicating the first round may not be completely in retreat. Some more cautious areas haven’t yet eliminated barriers and quarantines. And many experts are saying that premature reopening may lead to a second round of the plague in fall or winter. Whether you’re optimistic or pessimistic, the future is far from clear. And whenever the future is unclear, your main lookout is to minimize any risks.
Risk 1: Money. I’ve been pounding this drum for months: Pay as little as possible in advance. Once a travel supplier gets hold of your money, you’ll have a tough time getting back if something happens either to you or to the supplier.
Although you have to buy air tickets in advance, you don’t have to buy far in advance. Studies of fare trends may show that the “ideal” time to buy air tickets is generally a couple of months in advance, but they also show that fares don’t get really stiff until two weeks or so before departure. By that time, you should have a pretty clear indication about whether you’ll actually be taking a trip. Sure you may pay a few bucks more than if you buy earlier, but you’ll cut the risk that the airline keeps your money and makes it tough to get a refund.
When you search for hotel deals, the best price will almost always be “nonrefundable.” In times past that really meant “use it or lose it,” but these days hotel companies are generally allowing you to cancel or rebook without a fee. Nevertheless, you generally won’t get your money back: Instead, you get credit toward a future stay, and if you don’t want or can’t use the future stay, the credit is worthless. And beware of “refundable” rates that you pay up front: If you cancel, the refund is again likely to be in the form of a future credit. The only truly risk-free rates are those you pay only after you get to the hotel. Although they’re higher than the other options, the price premium is generally minor.
Cruises are especially iffy, given the perception that a cruise ship can be viewed as a giant petri dish. Getting a cash refund from a cruise line is tough; if you want to sail, wait until a week before sailing without risking overpayment. For a river cruise, waiting also lowers the risk of low- or high-water hassles.
Risk 2: Destination. Don’t make any commitments for travel to any country until that country has opened its borders to U.S. travelers and from which the U.S. will let you return without quarantine after you get home. Right now, a lot of countries, including Canada, don’t pass that test. And although the UK nominally lets you enter, you have to quarantine yourself there for 14 days after you arrive. There’s a lot of pressure from the travel industry and elsewhere on those countries to relax their rules. But until you do, anything you put forward–money or your time and effort–could be wasted. And even though an area may have re-opened, individual attractions might still be closed or limited. Check before you pay!
Send e-mail to Ed Perkins at [email protected]. Also, check out Ed’s new rail travel website.
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