While visions of the Blackhawks’ 7-1 loss to the Devils just before the holiday break are still dancing in your head, let’s look at a few recent topics affecting the Hawks in our latest point/counterpoint.
Point: The Blackhawks still could make the playoffs.
Counterpoint: Please stop saying that.
The similarities between last season and this season are clear enough for some to believe there’s hope the Hawks can make the playoffs. They went 23-14-6 after the holiday break last season and picked up 52 points for a .605 point percentage.
But two things to know: That didn’t cut it last season, and it likely wouldn’t cut it this season.
The Western Conference’s final wild-card spot belongs to the Predators with 42 points. The Stars have 44 points but a slightly lower point percentage at .579. So let’s go with the Stars as the team to beat.
To finish with a .579 point percentage, which would result in 95 points, the Hawks need 59 points in their last 44 games. That’s a .670 point percentage over the remainder of the season. Only the Blues, Bruins, Capitals and Islanders have a point percentage that high.
Let’s put it more clearly: To reach 95 points, the Hawks would have to go 27-12-5 the rest of the way. Anyone think that’s possible?
This team hasn’t been on the brink of breaking out all season, and it’s hard to argue that the Hawks are better now than when the season began. Calvin de Haan, Andrew Shaw, Drake Caggiula and Brent Seabrook are out indefinitely, and Brandon Saad will miss at least a few more games with a right ankle injury.
A team with no room for error has had bad luck and been worse than expected. Coach Jeremy Colliton has repeatedly pleaded with his team after losses to look in the mirror and start working harder.
Never mind for now who’s to blame for that. When a team shows you who it is, believe it.
Point: The Hawks should start making trades for the future immediately.
Counterpoint: Agreed. But who?
There are nearly two months and 24 games to go until the Feb. 24 trade deadline. For those who believe the Hawks’ season is over, that’s going to seem like waiting for another Christmas Day.
If that’s the case, you’re going to find coal in your stocking when the deadline passes.
The Hawks have three players scheduled to be unrestricted free agents next summer — Erik Gustafsson, Corey Crawford and Robin Lehner — and there’s a problem with each of them being part of a trade-deadline deal.
In hindsight the Hawks should have dealt Gustafsson after his 60-point performance last season, but they were shooting for the playoffs and needed him for that to happen. Perhaps they could get back a first-round pick for him from a contender that wouldn’t mind giving up a pick in the late 20s, but even that seems like a stretch with Gustafsson having such an inconsistent season.
Crawford isn’t going anywhere. He has a full no-movement clause and isn’t having the kind of season that would lead a contender to believe he’s the answer. Crawford has a pedestrian .905 save percentage, and it’s .877 over his last eight appearances.
There are two issues with trading Lehner. First, the Hawks likely want to keep him beyond this season. Second, the Wild and perhaps the Sabres could be in the market, but there aren’t many contending teams that need a No. 1 goalie.
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Beyond those three, the Hawks don’t have much to offer. Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews and Duncan Keith aren’t going anywhere because they have no-movement clauses and because the Hawks aren’t crazy enough to anger a fan base already simmering with rage.
Brandon Saad has one year remaining on a contract with a reasonable $6 million salary-cap hit and would be an attractive piece, but he’s dealing with an ankle injury. Not to mention he has been one of the Hawks’ best players this season and they likely want him around next season. They’ve given no indication they intend to embark on a full rebuild despite tons of evidence they’re already in one.
If they do go down the rebuilding route, trading Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Strome, Kirby Dach or Adam Boqvist in the right deal should be on the table. None of them should be untouchable.
Point: NBC Sports’ Pro Hockey Talk ranking Patrick Kane the 15th-best player of the decade is about right.
Counterpoint: What the hell were they thinking?
Forget about the Stanley Cup argument. This is a list of the top individual players, and five of the top 15 — Erik Karlsson, Connor McDavid, Henrik Lundqvist, Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman — never won a Cup.
Kane’s best seasons have come when the Hawks have been at their worst. This is about individual play, not team play.
Let’s stipulate that the top five of Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, Karlsson, Patrice Bergeron and McDavid did, in fact, have had better decades than Kane. It’s clear to anyone who watches McDavid that he’s the best player on the planet and has been for several seasons. That’s enough to lift him into the top five despite playing only about half the decade.
After that is where the discussion gets incredibly tedious trying to separate one player from another. The next three on the list — Evgeni Malkin, Lundqvist and Anze Kopitar — have not been demonstrably better than Kane, who with 797 points is on track to finish the decade with the most points in the league.
All four have been dominant in their way. This is the group in which Kane needed to be slotted.
The players NBC ranked after Kopitar and ahead of Kane — Stamkos, Zdeno Chara, Victor Hedman, Duncan Keith, Nicklas Backstrom and Jonathan Toews — are all fantastic players. None was better than Kane, who has been constantly brilliant over the last 10 years. Only the 2011-12 season possibly could be described as close to disappointing.
Where NBC really messed up was saying Kane’s off-ice problems “will always detract from (being one of the decade’s best offensive players) and be a part of his story.”
Of course they always will be a part of Kane’s story. But NBC raising them in an article about what happened on the ice had no place in the story.
Point: Brent Seabrook should return to the lineup when he’s healthy.
Counterpoint: Dennis Gilbert and Adam Boqvist should be playing every game even when Seabrook returns.
Seabrook participated in the morning skate Dec. 18 at the United Center before a game against the Avalanche. During pregame media availability, Jeremy Colliton revealed that Seabrook would be a healthy scratch against the Avs.
No injury was mentioned. According to Colliton, it was purely a coaches decision.
The Hawks announced about 4 p.m. the next day, a few hours before playing the Jets, that Seabrook was “undergoing further medical evaluations” and did not travel to Winnipeg. Colliton later said Seabrook was dealing with some “nagging” injuries.
Seabrook hasn’t played or practiced since that morning skate. General manager Stan Bowman told the Daily Herald an announcement was “coming soon” but gave no hint about what Seabrook’s medical issues entail.
Seabrook, 34, has four seasons left on a deal that carries a $6.875 million cap hit and has a full no-movement clause. Even if he is willing to waive the no-movement clause, it’s hard to imagine other teams taking on his contract without significant sweeteners.
If he is dealing with a serious health issue that requires going on long-term injured reserve, that would provide the Hawks cap relief during his stay there.
It’s too soon to know how this will play out. It’s possible Seabrook will take a few games to get right and return to the lineup. But even when he is able to play again, the Hawks have six defensemen ahead of him on the depth chart.
Rookies Gilbert and Boqvist need to be playing every game, whether Seabrook is healthy or not. That’s not only a smart move for the future, but they’re better options than Seabrook right now.
The worst-case scenario is Seabrook has played his last game with the Hawks. No matter how much the Hawks need to shed Seabrook’s contract, that would be an unfortunate way for one of the Hawks’ greatest players to end his career.