March Madness is a magical time. It feels like anything can happen, and it’s one of those few sporting events that everyone gets into — hell, even your grandma probably fills out a bracket. From filling it out based on mascot preferences to studying stats and game footage, there’s a massive range in how seriously people take bracketology. But if you’re looking for advice in how to do well in your pool, we asked Tribune’s two college hoops reporters to give us their takes.
Tailor your approach
The first question to ask yourself: Is the goal to have fun or actually win?
If it’s the first, pick your alma mater to reach the Sweet 16, even if it’s a 15 seed. Why? Because if your beloved Wildcats/Tigers/Salukis are like the “Miracle on Ice” U.S. hockey team and pull off two stunners and you didn’t pick them, you will feel like a chump.
Also if you’re in it just for kicks, let your kids or nieces/nephews get involved. Sure, your entry fee will turn into a donation, but this is how you can get a kid to follow the NCAA tournament and eventually want to blow off school on the first Thursday of March Madness. Quite the public service.
If you’re in it to win it, pick a lot of favorites. No. 1 seeds reach the Final Four roughly 40 percent of the time, so figure on selecting at least two to advance to the final weekend. Don’t bother picking any teams lower than a 5 seed to reach the Final Four – unless you really want to roll the dice.
And that leads to my final thought: Are you in a pool with 15 people … or closer to 1,500? If it’s 15, don’t do anything crazy with your bracket. If you have the winner and two or three of the Final Four teams, you might cash. If you’re competing with half of America, you better get creative. Picking the chalk (1 and 2 seeds) won’t make you rich unless you also get just about every game right.
Good luck!
Take teams that are hot
After years of researching every team for the Tribune’s Selection Sunday package, my advice is don’t over think it. The more reasons I have to back up a Cinderella pick, the more they disappoint me and prove me wrong.
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But seriously, I think one of the best indicators is how hot a team is heading into the tournament. Body of work matters to the selection committee, but I think a team headed into March Madness on the upswing makes a significant difference. Look at Michigan last year (or Michigan State almost every year) as they peaked at just the right time. Conversely, teams that have some good wins on their resume but have hit a rough patch toward the end of the season have a good chance of disappointing.
I’m not sure what statistical information would say about this, but the selection committee factors it in and so should you when you’re filling out your bracket: Road wins. I trust a team that has played well on the road to be able to handle the pressure of the NCAA tournament and some wild environments.