If one chart encapsulates the frustrations of 2017 Cubbiedom it’s run differential. At the halfway point the Cubs run differential is, wait for it, zero. Same number of runs allowed as the team has scored. Last year, ahem, the World Series year, the differential was a hyperbolic 139. That’s right, 1-3-9.
Now, with the All-Star break over and the epic trade for White Sox pitcher Jose Quintana in the books, here are the stats the Cubs need to turn around to fix a middling season.
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Cumulative run differential
By game, for first half of
2016 and 2017 seasons
200
150
Through
88 games
100
2016: +139
50
2017: 0
20
40
60
80
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Cumulative run differential
By game, for first half of 2016 and 2017 seasons
Through
88 games
200
2016:
+139
150
100
50
2017: 0
20
40
60
80
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Cumulative run differential
By game, for first half of 2016 and 2017 seasons
Through
88 games
200
2016:
+139
150
100
50
2017: 0
20
40
60
80
Item No. 1: Timely hitting
Compared with the first half last year, the 2017 Cubs scored 61 fewer runs and had 63 fewer hits but trail last year’s home run total by only 3 home runs.
Turnaround job No. 1: Timely hitting. Last year the Cubs had a .252 average with runners in scoring position. This year their average with runners in scoring position has dropped to .230.
Item No. 2: Lineup chemistry
For the Cubs lineup, the loss of Dexter Fowler isn’t the whole story. While the No. 1 spot in the order hasn’t been as good at getting on base this year as Fowler was in 2016, and Cubs No. 1 hitters are faring worse than the National League average in many categories, there are irregularities throughout the lineup.
Comparing the Cubs with the rest of the NL by batting order shows the Cubs 3-4-5 hitters are underperforming. Spikes at the No. 1 and No. 2 may just signal that the Cubs and manager Joe Maddon have not yet found a lineup that is optimal for scoring runs.
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Batting statistics based on
position in the batting order
Compared to National League average
2017 Cubs
Average of all NL teams
BATTING AVERAGE
.300
.250
.200
4th spot
in the order:
.200 average
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
RBIs
60
40
5th spot
in the order:
38 RBIs
20
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
HOME RUNS
1st two spots in the order:
21 home runs each
25
20
15
10
5
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
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Batting statistics based on position in the batting order
Compared to National League average
2017 Cubs
Average of all NL teams
BATTING AVERAGE
.300
.250
.200
4th spot
in the order:
.200 average
Batting
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
RBIs
60
40
5th spot
in the order:
38 RBIs
20
Batting
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
HOME RUNS
25
1st two spots in the order:
21 home runs each
20
15
10
5
Batting
1st
2nd
3rd
More Top Picks Best Radar Detectors
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
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Batting statistics based on position in the batting order
Compared to National League average
2017 Cubs
Average of all NL teams
BATTING AVERAGE
.300
.250
.200
4th spot
in the order:
.200 average
Batting
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
RBIs
60
40
5th spot
in the order:
38 RBIs
20
Batting
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
HOME RUNS
25
1st two spots in the order:
21 home runs each
20
15
10
5
Batting
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Item No. 3: Tighten up early innings
The Cubs’ four returning starting pitchers have all seen their ERAs grow compared with the first half last season. The team often finds itself having to play from behind, as the Cubs starters have surrendered 80 runs in the first inning, 25 more than they have in any other single inning.
Item No. 4: Tighten up defense
The Cubs had the best defense in the major leagues last season, (according to fangraphs metrics). This year they rank 10th. That decline has affected the pitching staff, especially Jon Lester. The Cubs’ ace has been hot and cold this half-season, culminating in the Pirates’ 1st inning, 10 run (4 earned) outburst before the all-star break. He’s had some bad luck on defense too, as his average on balls in play has risen over 50 points since the first half of last season.
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Jon Lester
2017 season: 5-6,
108 innings pitched
(2016, 9-4, 110.2 IP)
Earned Run Average
2016
2017
4.25
3.01
Home runs
2016
16
2017
15
Strikeouts thrown
2016
108
2017
110
Walks
2016
28
2017
37
Batting Average on
Balls in Play (Babip)
2016
2017
.267
.321
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Jon Lester
2017 season: 5-6, 108 innings pitched
(2016, 9-4, 110.2 IP)
Earned Run Average
2017
2016
3.01
4.25
Home runs
2016
16
2017
15
Strikeouts thrown
2016
108
2017
110
Walks
2016
28
2017
37
Batting Average on
Balls in Play (Babip)
2016
2017
.267
.321
Item No. 5: Cut down on the long ball
Both John Lackey and Jake Arrieta have been hit hard, allowing significantly more home runs. Lackey especially has seen his statline decline comparing first half performances. For the Cubs to get right, these two will need to be a part of it.
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Jake Arrieta
2017 season: 8-7,
101.1 innings pitched
(2016, 12-4, 114.1 IP)
Earned Run Average
2016
2017
4.35
2.68
Home runs
2016
7
2017
14
Strikeouts thrown
2016
121
2017
102
Walks
2016
43
2017
35
Batting Average on
Balls in Play (Babip)
2016
2017
.260
.300
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Jake Arrieta
2017 season: 8-7, 101.1 innings pitched
(2016, 12-4, 114.1 IP)
Earned Run Average
2017
2016
2.68
4.35
Home runs
2016
7
2017
14
Strikeouts thrown
2016
121
2017
102
Walks
2016
43
2017
35
Batting Average on
Balls in Play (Babip)
2016
2017
.260
.300
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John Lackey
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2017 season: 5-9,
98.2 innings pitched
(2016, 7-5, 116.2 IP)
Earned Run Average
2016
2017
5.20
3.70
Home runs
2016
14
2017
24
Strikeouts thrown
2016
120
2017
86
Walks
2016
36
2017
30
Batting Average on
Balls in Play (Babip)
2016
2017
.275
.276
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John Lackey
2017 season: 5-6, 108 innings pitched
(2016, 9-4, 110.2 IP)
Earned Run Average
2017
2016
3.70
5.20
Home runs
2016
14
2017
24
Strikeouts thrown
2016
120
2017
86
Walks
2016
36
2017
30
Batting Average on
Balls in Play (Babip)
2016
2017
.275
.276
Item No. 6: Get help
Hendricks started off slow but was beginning to round into form before his trip to the DL. Quintana has Lester-like numbers in the past few seasons. Hendricks and Quintana should be what the Cubs need to shore up their rotation.
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Kyle Hendricks
2017 season: 4-3,
61.2 innings pitched
(2016, 7-6, 98.2 IP)
Earned Run Average
2016
2017
4.09
2.55
Home runs
2016
8
2017
9
Strikeouts thrown
2016
86
2017
51
Walks
2016
27
2017
21
Batting Average on
Balls in Play (Babip)
2016
2017
.249
.262
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Kyle Hendricks
2017 season: 4-3, 61.2 innings pitched
(2016, 7-6, 98.2 IP)
Earned Run Average
2017
2016
2.55
4.09
Home runs
2016
8
2017
9
Strikeouts thrown
2016
86
2017
51
Walks
2016
27
2017
21
Batting Average on
Balls in Play (Babip)
2016
2017
.249
.262
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Jose Quintana
2017 season: 4-8,
104.1 innings pitched
(2016, 7-8, 117.2 IP)
Earned Run Average
2016
2017
4.49
3.21
Home runs
12
2016
2017
14
Strikeouts thrown
2016
105
2017
109
Walks
2016
28
2017
40
Batting Average on
Balls in Play (Babip)
2016
2017
.285
.301
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Jose Quintana
2017 season: 4-8,104.1 innings pitched
(2016, 7-8, 117.2 IP)
Earned Run Average
2017
2016
3.21
4.49
Home runs
2016
12
2017
14
Strikeouts thrown
2016
105
2017
109
Walks
2016
28
2017
40
Batting Average on
Balls in Play (Babip)
2016
2017
.285
.301
First halves compared: 2016 vs. 2017
Cubs record, statistics through 88 games
| 2016 season | 2017 season | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53-35 | Record | 43-45 | Worse |
| 11-14 | Record in one-run games | 13-12 | Better |
| 26-8 | Record in blowouts (5 or more runs) | 10-14 | Worse |
| 460 | Runs scored | 399 | Worse |
| 321 | Runs allowed | 399 | Worse |
| 139 | Run differential | 0 | Worse |
First half pitching statistics, 2016 vs 2017
| 2016 season | 2017 season | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.36 | Team ERA | 4.10 | Worse |
| 3.09 | Starters’ ERA | 4.66 | Worse |
| 3.94 | Relievers ERA | 3.26 | Better |
| 627 | Hits allowed | 715 | Worse |
| 782 | Strikeouts | 763 | Worse |
| 274 | Walks | 309 | Worse |
| .216 | Opponent batting average | .242 | Worse |
| .354 | Opponent slugging percentage | .405 | Worse |
| .261 | Batting average on balls in play | .290 | Worse |
First half hitting statistics, 2016 vs 2017
| 2016 season | 2017 season | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 460 | Runs | 399 | Worse |
| 769 | Hits | 706 | Worse |
| 120 | Home runs | 117 | Same |
| 375 | Walks | 337 | Better |
| 763 | Strikeouts | 743 | Better |
| .256 | Batting Average | .239 | Worse |
| .348 | On-Base Percentage | .326 | Worse |
| .438 | Slugging percentage | .419 | Worse |
| .303 | Batting average on balls in play | .280 | Worse |
Photos: Lester, Brian Cassella/baiduhai; Arrieta, Nancy Stone/baiduhai; Lackey, by Brian Cassella/baiduhai; Hendricks, Chris Sweda/baiduhai; Quintana, by Armando L. Sanchez/baiduhai
Source: Baseball-Reference.com, Tribune reporting
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