Last year’s winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Classic Empire, has remained healthy and pointed toward the Kentucky Derby since he won the Juvenile in November. He ran a respectable third in the Holy Bull at the start of prep season, and then bounced back impressively in the Arkansas Derby. In the latter, he ran a very patient, determined race to win comfortably. While he is not a dominant favorite, as we have seen in recent years, he has done nothing to suggest he has taken a step back from his Juvenile win. Classic Empire also has a nice running style for the Derby. He has the tactical speed to be forwardly placed but does not have to lead to win.
His two biggest challengers, both at 5:1 on the morning line, are McCraken and Always Dreaming. McCraken finished third in the Blue Grass, behind two other Derby contenders Irap and Practical Joke. Prior to the Blue Grass, McCraken was a perfect four wins in four starts, in increasing levels of competition. The Blue Grass did not unfold well for McCraken and he never got into the race. The Derby pace should be more to his liking, even if the size of the field will be a challenge. Always Dreaming is on a three-race win streak, culminating in a Florida Derby win. Although not the favorite in the Florida Derby, Always Dreaming won by a widening five lengths. Irish War Cry will also be well-bet after opening at 6:1 on the morning line. He has just one blemish on his record, a highly disappointing seventh in the Fountain of Youth. Like many others in the field, he shook off his worst effort to bounce back and win the next time out. For Irish War Cry, it was an impressive victory in the Wood Memorial.
There are contenders at higher prices however. Practical Joke has never missed the board in six lifetime starts, and has consistently sought out the best fields for his prep races. He is never far out of the mix and has shown the ability to overcome trouble. Lookin For Lee is a stone cold closer who will love the extra distance in the Derby. He is always running well in the stretch, so if a pace collapse unfolds, he will be one of a few who will be picking up the pieces.
Liam’s Win Bet: Practical Joke
Liam’s Exacta Bet: Box Classic Empire, Gunnevera, Practical Joke and Looking at Lee
Liam’s Trifecta Bet: Box Classic Empire, Gunnevera, Practical Joke and Looking at Lee
Liam Durbin is owner-handicapper of e-ponies.com and creator of the One Click Pony app. He shares his Triple Crown picks and betting tips with The Baltimore Sun each year.