The Bears didn’t have much of a chance in their final game of the season. Matt Barkley threw two more interceptions and had a fumble returned for a TD as the Vikings defeated the Bears 38-10.
Below is a breakdown of the game looking at how the Bears’ probability of winning changed. The 10 most impactful plays — the plays resulting in the largest swings in win probability, are described below.
Game 16: at Minnesota
Game 15: vs. Washington
Game 14: vs. Green Bay
Game 13: at Detroit
Game 12: vs. San Francisco
Game 11: vs. Tennessee
Game 10: at N.Y. Giants
Game 9: at Tampa Bay
Game 8: vs. Minnesota
Game 7: at Green Bay
Game 6: vs. Jacksonville
Game 5: at Indianapolis
Game 4: vs. Detroit
Game 3: at Dallas
Game 2: vs. Philadelphia
Game 1: at Houston
| Sunday, Sept. 13 Noon | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | OT | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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– | – | – | – | – | – |
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– | – | – | – | – | – |
The biggest plays of the game
As measured by change in Bears’ win probability
What is win probability?
Win probability is a statistical tool used to calculate a teams’s chance of winning as a game progresses. By combining live game statistics like field position, down and score differential with other measures, like the Las Vegas odds and the amount of points a team is expected to score, we can calculate how likely a teamis to win over the course of the game.
There is no standard way to to calculate win probability. We use a method devised by Pro Football Reference.
Game and odds data provided by SportsDirect. Expected points data provided by Keith Goldner’s Drive-By Football Markov Calculator Tool. Win probability formula provided by Pro Football Reference.
— Geoff Hing, Abe Epton and Alex Bordens contributed
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52045:”
The Bears didn’t have much of a chance in their final game of the season. Matt Barkley threw two more interceptions and had a fumble returned for a TD as the Vikings defeated the Bears 38-10.
“,
52028:”
Matt Barkley threw five interceptions and the Bears never really had a chance against a Washington team trying to play its way into the playoffs. Bears lose 41-21.
“,
52011:”
After a disastrous 3rd quarter that featured three turnovers from quarterback Matt Barkley, the Bears rallied in the 4th to tie the game, 27-27. But a last-minute, 60-yard pass from Aaron Rodgers set up the Packers game-winning field goal as the clock expired. Bears lose, 30-27.
“,
51997:”
Two fourth-quarter interceptions — one of them returned for a touchdown — briefly put the Bears in a posiition to win. But a pair of holding penalties late in the game doomed their chances at a comeback, and the Lions handed the Bears their 10th loss of the season, 20-17.
“,
51981:”
Jordan Howard ran for 117 yards and three touchdowns as the Bears defeated the 49ers 26-6. As the snow accumulated, so did the Bears sacks — six against the 49ers quarterbacks. The Bears dominated the second half, and held the 49ers to a total of 147 yards of offense.
“,
51965:”
A furious Bears rally came up short when the Bears dropped a pair of touchdown passes that would have tied the game late in the fourth quarter. Matt Barkley threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns, but a third quarter interception in the TItans end zone proved costly. Bears lose, 27-21.
“,
51956:”
The Bears went into half time with a 7-point lead and a good chance at winning Sunday’s game. But 13 unanswered Giants points in the 3rd quarter kneecapped the Bears chances. In the closing minutes, a combination of a 14-yard strip sack of Jay Cutler (recovered by the Bears), followed by a Cutler interception, sealed the deal for the Giants. Bears lose, 22-16.
“,
51940:”
The first half of this game was dominated by momentum-swinging turnovers committed by both teams, but the second half was dominated by the Bucs. Jay Cutler’s end of half Hail Mary to Cameron Meredith was the last sign of life for the Bears, who were suffocated in the second half by the Bucs. Bears lose, 36-10.
“,
51920:”
With quarterback Jay Cutler back at the helm, the Bears offense moved the ball in the air and on the ground, while the defense suffocated the Vikings. The defense sacked Vikings QB Sam Bradford five times, and Jordan Howard ran for 153 yards and a touchdown as the Bears win on Halloween, 20-10.
“,
51893:”
It’s possible the most important play of the game isn’t reflected below, as Brian Hoyer was forced to exit in the second quarter with a broken arm. A defensive touchdown gave the Bears the lead early in the 3rd quarter, but the Packers capitalized on two interceptions from Bears backup QB Matt Barkley and went on to defeat the Bears 26-10. The Packers outgained the Bears in total yards 406 to 189.
“,
51880:”
The Bears squandered a 13 point lead in the 4th quarter to fall to the Jaguars 17-16. The biggest swing came when the Jaguars scored their second touchdown of the fourth quarter, a 51-yard pass from Blake Bortles to Arrelious Benn. The Bears were unable to answer with a score of their own, and fell to 1-5 on the season.
“,
51867:”
The Bears had a great day on offense, racking up over 500 total yards, and rallied to take the lead midway through the fourth quarter. But after the Colts answered with a touchdown of their own, Brian Hoyer was unable to complete the winning drive late in the game and the Bears fell to the Colts 29-23.
“,
51853:”
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The Bears got their first win of 2016 behind two Brian Hoyer touchdown passes, but one of the biggest plays of the game may have been Eddie Royal’s 64-yard catch in the third quarter. That play was the Bears’ longest play from scrimmage so far this season. Lions QB Matt Stafford’s interception at the end of the first half also proved costly, as the Bears went on to win by the margin of a single field goal.
“,
51847:”
Another week, another Bears opponent with a virtual lock to win the game in the second half. The Cowboys raced out to a 24-3 lead at halftime, and despite a pair of second half touchdowns for Bears tight end Zach Miller, it was never really that close.
“,
51832:”
The Bears’ week 2 contest against the Philadelphia Eagles was hard fought and low scoring until the middle of the third quarter. The Eagles took advantage of three Bears’ turnovers (two fumbles and an interception) and a sidelined Jay Cutler (hand injury) to turn a 9-7 advantage into a 29-14 victory. Eddie Royal tried to spark the team late with a punt return touchdown, but the Eagles were a virtual lock to win for the entire 4th quarter.
“,
51804:”
It was an inauspicious start to the season for the Bears. The Monsters of the Midway failed to establish any dominence over the Houston Texans and their young quarterback Brock Osweiler. The Bears’ high water mark came late in the first quarter (65.3%), but the last time they had a better than 50% chance if winning was late in the third. In all, an anemic offense and a 13-minute deficit in time of possession doomed the Bears.
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