When asked by the New York Times whether or not he would ever walk away from the presidency if elected, Donald Trump flashed them a “mischievous smile
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,” saying, “I’ll let you know how I feel about it after it happens.”Now, British prediction market Betfair is allowing traders to hypothesize the odds of Trump dropping out of the race. Betfair currently holds the odds of Trump winning the presidency at 25.8 percent; the odds of Trump actually becoming president? Only 24.1 percent, according to the New York Times.
So what does that 1.7 percent represent? The likelihood that Trump will win the presidency (somehow) and then choose not to take it.
Those same Betfair markets assess the likelihood of the Republicans to lose the election at 74.2 percent (we’re sure Hillary is relieved), no matter who the Republican candidate is.
This 74.2 percent is three times greater than their chance at victory, so if Trump’s replacement holds a 1.7 percent chance at winning were Trump to drop out, it follows that there’s approximately a 5 percent chance (three times 1.7) of someone other than Trump leading the Republican party to a loss in November. The likelihood of another Republican winning OR losing? 6.7 percent.
Bettors on PredictIt are giving Trump an 8 percent chance of dropping out by the end of August, though, obviously, the odds are more in the favor of him staying in.
If RNC strategists are to be believed, this theorizing is just that. Sean Spicer told the Hill that, “Donald Trump is the nominee of the Republican Party, full-stop. […] That’s the reality. The rest is just media-pundit concoction.” Our bad.
@shelbielbostedt | [email protected]
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