When the Cubs signed outfielder Jason Heyward to an eight-year, $184 million contract in the offseason, it was regarded as something of a coup.
But was it?
Defensively, Heyward has performed as advertised, but his offensive numbers so far with the Cubs have been disappointing, to say the least. With lefty Chris Sale starting for the White Sox on Thursday night, Joe Maddon gave the slumping Heyward (5-for-40 since the All-Star break) a night off and inserted him as a defensive replacement in the 9th inning of the Cubs’ 3-1 victory at Wrigley Field.
When you look closely at the offensive stats from Heyward’s six previous major-league seasons, it’s difficult to know which player is the real Heyward — the one who hit 27 home runs in 2012 with the Braves or the one who slipped to just 11 home runs two seasons later.
In that 27-homer season, it’s worth noting that Heyward also struck out 152 times, both numbers career highs by a wide margin. Since then his power numbers have dropped off, but his strikeout-to-homer ratio has risen (with the exception of 2013, when it was lower but comparable). This season, it is an alarming 16.7-to-1. (All 2016 numbers are through Wednesday.)
2010: 128 strikeouts, 18 homers, 7.1-to-1 ratio
2011: 93 strikeouts, 14 homers, 6.6-1 ratio
2012: 152 strikeouts, 27 homers, 5.6-1
2013: 73 strikeouts, 14 homers, 5.2-1
2014: 98 strikeouts, 11 homers, 8.9-1
2015: 90 strikeouts, 13 homers, 6.9-1
2016: 67 strikeouts, 4 homers, 16.7-1
When White Sox pitcher Anthony Ranaudo hit a home run in his first at-bat against the Cubs on Wednesday night, it gave him exactly as many home runs at Wrigley Field this season as Heyward has had in 159 home at-bats: One.
Heyward has only four homers overall in 349 at-bats this season. To put that into context, here’s a list of Chicago players who have hit more home runs than Heyward this season in far fewer at-bats:
David Ross, Cubs: 6 HR in 111 AB
Avisail Garcia, White Sox: 6 HR in 261 AB
Willson Contreras, Cubs: 5 HR in 117 AB
Jorge Soler, Cubs: 5 HR in 130 AB
Tyler Saladino, White Sox: 5 HR in 135 AB
Miguel Montero, Cubs: 5 HR in 162 AB
Tim Anderson, White Sox: 5 HR in 173 AB
Dioner Navarro, White Sox: 5 HR in 215 AB
The book on Heyward is that he is historically a slow starter but a fast finisher, and the numbers generally bear that out. While August has been his best month offensively over the previous three full seasons (2013-2015), he has cooled down considerably in September.
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2013-2015 slash lines by month (batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage)
April: .188/.272/.313
May: .264/.353/.384
June: .295/.365/.474
July: .286/.367/.399
August: .331/.390/.508
September: .266/.365/.382
This season, Heyward’s May, June and July numbers were well off the pace he set the previous three years.
2016 slash lines by month
April: .224/.333/.271
May: .217/.301/.301
June: .213/.336/.386
July: .213/.292/.288
So far, Heyward has just 28 RBIs, which is one of the reasons he found himself dropped to seventh in the lineup on Wednesday. Consider this: Todd Frazier of the White Sox has more home runs (29) than Heyward has RBIs this season.
Heyward has not had an RBI since before the All-Star break and has only two in July. In fact, he had more RBIs in April (12) than in June and July (10) combined.
Heyward’s RBI trend over the last three seasons is similar to his slash-line trend and doesn’t quite support the concept of him as a “strong finisher.” Again, he does well in August but experiences a significant drop-off in September.
Heyward’s RBIs by month, 2013-2015
April: 16
May: 22
June: 37
July: 29
August: 37
September: 15
With seven years remaining on his contract, the Cubs surely must be hoping that Heyward is saving his best for last this season — and beyond.
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