Sen. Bernie Sanders put together a trifecta on Saturday — lopsided wins in three caucuses that had his supporters cheering.
Unfortunately for Sanders’ backers, however, the victories didn’t do much to change the shape of a Democratic primary race in which Hillary Clinton remains the odds-on favorite.
How come?
Even after Saturday’s Sanders victories, Clinton holds a lead of more than 260 in the count of pledged delegates to the Democratic nominating convention. That does not include the additional lead of some 440 that she currently holds among the so-called super-delegates — party leaders and elected officials who can vote as they choose at the convention.
A lead of 260 delegates is a big one — bigger than the lead then-Sen. Barack Obama amassed over Clinton in 2008. Overcoming it would require some really big wins in big states.
Moreover, Sanders still has not succeeded in expanding his map. He has repeatedly shown he can win in states that have overwhelmingly white populations and in states that hold caucuses rather than primaries. Saturday’s contests were all caucuses, and two took place in states — Alaska and Washington — have extremely white populations.
In today’s Democratic party, a candidate cannot win without significant black and Latino support. With the one exception of his victory in Michigan, Sanders has notably failed to win primaries in states with large black or Latino populations.
After Saturday, only two more states hold caucuses — Wyoming and North Dakota, both small states with few delegates. There are also few heavily white states left to vote. In addition to the two caucus states, Sanders’ current pattern would indicate he should do well in West Virginia, Oregon, Montana and South Dakota.
But what he would need to do to actually defeat Clinton is win primaries in states with large minority populations. To overcome Clinton’s lead, Sanders would have to win states like Wisconsin, which votes on April 5, New York on April 19 and Pennsylvania a week later. And he needs to win those by large margins to make up for the big victories Clinton has achieved in states like Florida, North Carolina and Arizona.
It’s not an impossible task, but it is a tough one.