Say farewell to 2015, the year of the great Springfield shake-up, and say hello to 2016, the year of change.
When Illinois voters supported Republican Bruce Rauner for governor in 2014, they signed on for something different in state politics, but I’m still not clear what exactly it was they wanted or if they are happy with what they got.
The Republican governor stopped the Democratic Legislature from passing a budget that would have spent $5 billion more than the state expected in revenue, yet Illinois continues to spend money as unpaid bills pile up. In fact, more than 80 percent of the money the Democrats originally planned to spend is being used to fund state programs in order to keep the schools open, government employees working and fund Medicaid for the poor, just to name a few.
The court ordered some of those payments, some were required by federal law, and the governor, seeking to avoid a real crisis, wanted to keep the classroom doors open for public schoolchildren and keep taxpayers happy by keeping government programs running.
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The people actually feeling the financial squeeze caused by the budget stalemate are primarily private social service agencies that provide help for the developmentally disabled and mentally ill, day care for single mothers and shelter to victims of domestic violence, and private contractors providing services to the state. Their funding was either delayed by months or reduced, forcing them to take out loans and, in some cases, to close up shop.
As for the politics of change, while Rauner and Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan disagree on many things, both have said they support a property tax freeze, and both have said they would support some sort of tax increase down the line because, well, the state is billions of dollars in debt.
Yet, you don’t see any signs of full-scale taxpayer rebellion in Illinois. People are backing Rauner and his “Turnaround Agenda” or the Democrats, picking sides as if they actually believe there’s going to be something left to win at the end of the line.
Rauner has said he wants to give local governments greater control over collective bargaining in Illinois, release government workers from the requirement that they pay union dues and save taxpayers money by allowing local governments to pay rates below the prevailing wage for construction work. He also wants term limits for state legislators and changes in the way legislative districts are drawn in order to encourage greater competition in elections.
Madigan has called all of those changes extreme.
For most of the people in Illinois, none of that has meant anything.
If that’s what you envisioned in 2014, you were a better prognosticator than most of the political pundits and had greater insight than any elected official I spoke with after Rauner took office.
Time and again, Democrats in Springfield told me that Rauner, having won the election, would now have to govern and that would mean compromise. Boasting about shaking things up in Springfield in TV commercials and on the campaign trail was one thing, they told me, but actually getting things done in the state Capitol required negotiation.
Rauner couldn’t afford to continue his political war against the Democrats because at the end of the day, he wouldn’t have anything to show voters in the 2016 legislative elections. Republicans would have to break ranks, or force the governor to capitulate, because getting nothing accomplished was not a viable political option.
When I suggested that Rauner, a billionaire, was not a traditional governor, that he might not care about getting re-elected and certainly wasn’t concerned about appeasing Democrats, longtime elected political leaders scoffed. They had seen it all — including Gov. George Ryan and Gov. Rod Blagojevich — and anyone who suggested Rauner was going to draw a line in the sand and stick to it didn’t understand how deals got done in Springfield.
With complete confidence in their position, they noted that Illinois was facing the worst pension crisis in the country, a debt of $110-billlion-plus. In addition, by voting to roll back the 5 percent state income tax to 3.75 percent, the state budget was going to be short billions of dollars the day Rauner took office. Despite his promises to cut government spending, the Democrats said, he couldn’t find that much fat in the state budget without hurting people, including people who were constituents of Republican legislators.
Madigan had outmaneuvered Rauner before the new governor had even taken the oath of office, Democrats suggested.
I don’t think anyone counted on the Rauner Response. Just keep on spending money, money the state didn’t have, ignore the pension crisis entirely and wait for something to change.
Most people on both sides of the political aisle are still confident in their belief that there will be a negotiated settlement. A grand compromise. Because, remember what I said earlier — this state doesn’t have the money to continue operating. That temporary state income tax hike went away, so Illinois is heading full steam ahead toward a financial cliff. It’s only a matter of time, and there will be no more money left for anything.
No one wants that.
I’m not so sure. The governor has made it pretty clear he’s not going to change his position. Madigan has done the same, repeatedly. And there are many voters who may think the Illinois gravy train ought to be destroyed in order to save this state from itself.
I’m guessing there will be some attempt at a bailout, maybe loans to keep the government running. Most Illinois residents don’t ever seem to make the connection between the interest we pay on those loans and the money disappearing from their wallets. It’s not a tax, after all.
I don’t know who would buy Illinois bonds at this point, but so long as the cash keeps flowing, I get the feeling there’s not going to be any great public uproar about the method of financing.
The good-government groups and conservative political action groups will get a lot of attention by predicting doomsday, demanding that one side or the other capitulate, pleading for reason to prevail. And they are likely to see their membership rolls increase as a result.
As for Rauner and Madigan, this is an exciting time for them. A real heavyweight political contest that is attracting national attention. The guy who gets to raise his hand in victory will be acknowledged as some sort of political wizard. And if they lose, so what.
Madigan is a millionaire at the end of his political career; Rauner, a billionaire who can go back to private business and make millions more.
Neither one of them stands to lose personally.
Heck, if the state goes down in financial flames, chances are each will declare victory and claim it was the other guy’s fault.
Rauner has helped the Democrats by driving up their support among union members and making sure the poorest residents of this state have a reason to vote.
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Madigan has helped the Republicans by talking about restoring the income tax hike, while making it clear he’s not going to pass term limits or change the rules for drawing legislative districts. And his opposition to changes in collective bargaining rules and drastic changes in unemployment compensation will drive more business leaders to support the Republican cause.
Given the high-profile nature of this political battle, chances are good big money will start pouring in from around the nation to back one side or the other.
Will Illinois be a better place to live in 2016 than it was in 2015? Is this really the change most voters wanted?
That’s irrelevant. It simply doesn’t matter at all to the men in the ring because, the fact is they’re not taking any punches. There’s no evidence I can see that they care at all what you, the public, think about them.
They’re having fun. Playing a game. And people are cheering them on.
Happy New Year!
pkadne[email protected]