I think on Aug. 19 a new and brief window of opportunity opened that could finally help wrap up this long and drawn out legislative overtime session.
But that window will only be open for 15 calendar days, the time the state constitution gives each legislative chamber to vote on a veto override.
Allow me to explain.
I spoke with some Rauner folks last week and are they ever on the warpath about the Senate’s Aug, 19 override of the governor’s veto of the AFSCME bill, which would prevent a strike by state workers or them being locked out and would require binding arbitration after an impasse is reached in collective bargaining. The House has 15 days from that date to take action.
Even though the American Federal of State, County and Municipal Employees has never invoked its binding arbitration power on behalf of state prison guards (who cannot strike by law), the governor and his people clearly see this bill as an outrageous intrusion on executive branch powers.
Gov. Rauner has called the legislation the “worst bill in Illinois history.” He said it would remove the only popularly elected official from labor negotiations (himself) and replace him with an unelected, pro-union arbitrator — although the unions have numbers that show that employers have won a slightly higher percentage of arbitration cases in Illinois than employees.
Rauner has ginned up editorials all over the state, privately warned Republicans that a vote to override guarantees a primary opponent next year and made it clear to Democrats that the best way to ensure a 2016 GOP opponent would be to vote “yes” to override.
One Senate Democratic operative only half-jokingly said that the governor was “flipping out” about the bill.
Rauner was also quite blunt the day of the Senate vote when he said it was a “test” of Senate President John Cullerton, D-Chicago.
“Is he controlled by Speaker Madigan or does he make his own decisions for the benefit of the people of his district in the Senate?” Rauner asked.
The clear implication was that if Cullerton went ahead with the override vote, the days of referring to him positively in public were over. Rauner has often said that he could work with Cullerton and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel if it wasn’t for that bad ol’ Michael Madigan.
Rauner’s people have also made a point of mentioning that they left Cullerton out of Rauner’s TV and direct mail attack ads, referring only to Madigan. But those days are over, too.
After the Senate’s override, the Rauner folks were vowing revenge. Cullerton “walked his members out on a plank,” one said. If Madigan doesn’t call the bill for a vote, Cullerton will have put his members, particularly his suburbanites, in harm’s way politically, another Rauner aide said.
Yet another said Madigan should not expect a single House Republican vote to replace any of his conservative Democrat “no” votes, even though a Senate Republican, Sam McCann, of Carlinville, voted with the Democrats to override last week.
It’s clear that the Rauner camp is declaring all-out war.
So, why is any of this positive news? Well, it’s pretty elementary — the governor has established as his top immediate priority preventing the first veto override of his brief career.
There are two ways out of a corner. You can either negotiate or bull through it and fight.
The Rauner folks are itching for a fight. They want to stop this override dead in its tracks in the House and then start their revenge war in the precincts. It’s understandable. They’re angry as all get-out.
But Rauner has a way to stop the override if he can see beyond his anger and realize that he’s in a trap of his own making. Cut a deal on his “Turnaround Agenda,” fix the budget, declare victory and bring the overtime session to a conclusion.
Tellingly, the House Democrats made some discreet behind-the-scenes inquiries last week about possibly setting up negotiations on Rauner’s agenda, which he says must be completed before he will talk about the budget.
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The point is that on Aug. 19 we arrived at what could be the most important moment in this overtime session.
After the 15-day clock runs out, we could look back on this as either the beginning of a negotiated truce or the start of the harshest, meanest political war we’ve ever seen.
Whatever happens, everybody has a choice here.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com