The absurdity of this long-running state government impasse might best be summed up with two statements:
*Gov. Bruce Rauner to Democrats: “Just support my plans to eviscerate organized labor, and I’ll give you the rare privilege of voting to raise everybody’s income tax.”
*Democrats to Rauner: “Just accept our piddly little workers’ compensation reforms, and we’ll let you put all Republican legislators on an income tax hike bill, which you can then, of course, gleefully sign into law.”
Those two statements bring to mind a long-ago description of the absurdist play, “Waiting for Godot.” It was, the reviewer wrote, a play in which “nothing happens, twice.”
Ain’t that the truth. Neither of those two things mentioned above will ever happen.
I have also heard some portray this standoff as something like a religious war, where each side is so wedded to their core beliefs, particularly when it comes to labor unions (Rauner against, Democrats for), that any rapprochement is impossible.
But, really, as absurd and hardline as the spring and summer legislative sessions have appeared, I am increasingly becoming convinced that this overtime session cannot be accurately described as either one of those things.
For instance, Rauner talks a good game, but, as we’ve seen, he often backs off. He repeatedly threatened to shut down the government during last year’s campaign, but he has instead done everything possible to avoid a shutdown after vetoing most of the state budget in June.
The governor has railed against unions but negotiated a state contract with the Teamsters, which even includes collecting “fair share” fees that he believes are unconstitutional.
He has made innumerable budget cuts that were quickly restored, whether through executive fiat, legislation that he supports or court cases that he backs.
House Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago, likewise talks a very good game about “protecting the middle class,” but he hasn’t always been such a white knight for his core constituency groups either.
He flipped on his much-favored trial lawyers and rammed through medical malpractice lawsuit reforms last decade, for instance. Madigan made a deal that undercut trade unions at McCormick Place, when asked to by Chicago’s mayor.
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He also muscled through a Tier 2 pension plan for state workers and teachers that resulted in their boycott of him in the 2010 campaign.
That led to the 2011 legislative education reforms that were aimed mostly at teachers and their unions, legislation to cut back the number of state workers represented by AFSCME as well as pension reform Part 2.
To me, the key to breaking this legislative logjam is Mayor Rahm Emanuel. If he really is privately asking for limits on teachers’ union collective bargaining powers, as the governor has been telling reporters and anyone else who will listen, then you can expect the speaker and Senate President John Cullerton, D-Chicago, to eventually go along.
Why would they go along? Well, because that’s what Democratic legislative leaders from Chicago usually do when their mayor needs them. Not every time, but it’s a pretty safe bet.
And because Emanuel has not yet denied Rauner’s claim about what he really wants, I’m guessing the governor is probably telling the truth. Or at least a close enough version of reality to finally smoke out Emanuel and have him prod Madigan and Cullerton to start moving on a resolution that can be applied statewide.
As you know, the governor refuses to even talk about a budget agreement until he gets some of his “Turnaround Agenda” passed, and keeping the teachers’ unions in check could go a long way toward that goal.
Until then, I think the Democratic leadership is content to continue their slow walk to oblivion and watch Rauner’s poll numbers move inexorably down toward their low positions, while galvanizing organized labor behind the Democratic Party like never before.
And as long as Rauner can keep most of state government functioning, I don’t think he’s prepared to make any major deals either.
So the Democratic leadership and Emanuel and Rauner could all choose to wait until the stuff really hits the fan later this month and into next month — when the lack of a budget and state government’s rapidly deteriorating condition could excuse an ugly deal in the minds of their respective constituencies.
Or they could stick their political necks out, act like statesmen and achieve a budget compromise before the pain really begins.
Nah.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com