March Madness for thoroughbreds begins in late February. Races for Kentucky Derby aspirants to this point have served mainly to separate hopefuls from the hopeless. Starting Saturday, it gets serious.
Gulfstream’s $400,000 Fountain of Youth is the first race for 3-year-olds to offer 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner. Even a race as prestigious as the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile awarded only 10 points to the winner, about half the total thought to be needed to grab one of the 20 starting spots for the Run for the Roses.
Upstart, the 8-5 morning line favorite, earned this distinction with a thoroughly dominant 51/2-length triumph in the Holy Bull at the same mile-and-a-sixteenth distance. Four of his seven challengers in the Fountain of Youth were no match for him.
Upstart’s 106 Beyer Fig in the Racing Form is the best of 2015 by a 3-year-old and matched the number put up by the older Shared Belief up in beating Horse of the Year California Chrome at Santa Anita on Feb. 7. A popular handicapping theory is that horses bounce off such an effort. Upstart’s trainer, Rick Violette, says he hopes that even if Upstart regresses slightly, he will still be good enough to win. He’s never run a disappointing race. The Holy Bull was his third victory in five starts. Prior to that, he was a troubled third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and second in the Grade 1 Champagne.
Frosted, second as the slight favorite in the Holy Bull, is coming back for more. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin says his colt, who had problems at the start and will add blinkers, is improving but his prospects rest on Upstart not running another “monster race.”
Leading trainer Todd Pletcher had 10 well regarded horses nominated to the Fountain of Youth and chose to enter only Itsaknockout. This makes him worthy of consideration in his stakes debut even if he wasn’t undefeated in two starts at Gulfstream.
Of the others, Gorgeous Bird comes into the Fountain of Youth off a seven-length allowance win, his second in as many races since being treated with Lasix.
The rest of the field would have to run career best races while the favorites go backward. Bluegrass Singer, winner of the Mucho Macho Man, was beaten more than seven lengths in the Holy Bull without apparent excuse. Juan and Bina was another couple of lengths back in fourth and Frammento was about nine lengths behind Juan and Bina in sixth. Danny Boy has made three of his four starts on grass. In his lone main track effort, he ran fourth.